Mclemore going #1
Would Charlotte, Orlando, or Phoenix take Mclemore over Noel if they won the lottery?
I think Charlotte and Orlando would take Noel and Phoenix would take McLemore. The options the Suns have at SG are mediocre at best. Shannon Brown's been disappointing and Wes Johnson isn't the answer.
Dont know what you do with the first pick. Mclemore or Noel? not much of a choice there. its like being forced to eat mcdonalds or burger king when your starving. Both are ok, both satisfy a need, but really dont provide anything all that benefical to you. First, Mclemore is going to need a lot of help so going to charlotte, orlando or phoenix dont seem too great. On the other hand, how will Noel come back from his injury and what of question marks surround him in his return. Not many options here in this draft so I would just close my eyes and pick one of these two. They wont make much of an impact.
The way I see it, McLemore will go #1 overall unless either he really disappoints in pre-draft workouts or unless someone steps up and impresses the team picking first. If you're a GM, and take Noel, but he never returns to pre-ACL injury form, you could be on the hot seat for messing up on the first pick of the draft. But if you go with McLemore, you at least know he's healthy and athletic, and as long as his shot transfers over to the NBA, I think his floor will be higher heading into their rookie seasons.
No one can tell who will be the better player five years from now, but Noel has a lot of risk involved with him. Though, if a team wanted to tank for the Wiggins sweepstakes, they could draft Noel, keep him out for as long as possible, and then only play him 20-25 MPG when he's healthy to get him in the swing of things, but not push him too hard that he risks another injury as well as too many wins. If you slowly develop Noel, even slower than what the Pistons did with Drummond this year, you will almost assuredly land a high pick again if you're Charlotte, Orlando, or Phoenix. If you get back to back first round picks (unlikely as the lottery is rigged) you can build around Wiggins and Noel. I think McLemore would take a few lotto balls away from the team who goes to for the 2014 draft, as bringing him in will add a few extra wins. So while this scenario isn't likely, it is an option, but I think McLemore is at about 75% odds of going #1, which are pretty good for two months before draft day.
I am not a fan of McLemore at all. I saw four of his games this year (@ ISU, KSU BigXII Championship Game, WKU, and UNC) and he was widely outplayed by his teammate Elijah Johnson in the games I saw and largely ineffective. He seemed timid, afraid to take the big shot, but he just seemed to disappear in key moments. Maybe that's part of Kansas' system but I saw games where he couldn't even put the ball in the basket. If he can't put the ball in the basket he's not much use on the floor, he's not a strong defender yet.
That said, he does have a decent looking stroke, and did shoot well this season for a SG (42% from 3, 49% FG, and 87% FT), I'm just concerned, saw him in several big games and he really struggled to take over or even get going at all. Now, maybe I just saw all of his poor games, and that's possible, but if you've seen someone four times and they've been consistently unimpressive, I think it's fairly rational to have reservations about them.
McLemore would succeed and do well as a role player coming off the bench on a good team as a sharpshooter, but I do not in any way see him as a starting SG on a poor team. If he starts for say Orlando, I see him struggling to get his shot off. With a lack of defense, he really doesnt offer much as far as penetration goes. I think the best you'll get out of this draft are some good role players, but nothing special. I thought Noel was a sure bet for #1 pick before his injury, but now I'd be terrified to draft him in the 1st round.
I do think it's interesting that all these draft prognosticators are so high on Noel going #1, but what if these teams simply don't want to pick a guy mid ACL recovery? They've seen the Derrick Rose story play out, they've seen Rubio and Shumpert come back and struggle for awhile. I think Bobcats should take McLemore, because they will still be horrible next year and I think if you get McLemore and one of those 3 top wing guys in the next years class, that you are building a foundation for a team that succeeds in the NBA in this day and age. However, I have a feeling they are going to think stashing Noel for a year will guarantee another awful year (as if picking one of these other guys will change that) and then they can get Wiggins/Parker/Randle for sure.
by taking noel or McLemore, the bobcast almost immediately guarantee themselves a shot at either wiggins or parker next year. Personally, I would draft Noel, let him sit out the entire year, have a horrible season and then draft Andrew Wiggins. In 2014, have Noel and Wiggins as starters with Kemba Walker.
this is going to send crazy, but I would do this if I were the Bobcats. If you are looking towards the future, why not trade that #1 pick to Clev for their two 2nd round picks in 2013. This way you are trading a role player(McLemore) for 2 role players who may actually have more upside than McLemore. This way you still guarantee that you will suck the entire year and get a high draft pick in 2014, but you also add some key role players. I dont know I just feel bad for the bobcats or any team with a high pick this year.