Making Your Mock Draft
I was just wondering, I notice the criticism of peoples mock drafts here usually are based on saying that so and so should not go before so and so. But, like I was saying yesterday in accordance to the group Mock Draft process, are we making these mock picks based on who we say as the best player or who the team selecting sees as the best player. Clearly, their have been a couple occasions where we have been left saying "huh??" (or, in many cases "What the f##k?) on draft day. In some of those cases, the player is a bust, in some of those cases the player is a surprisingly good pick.
So, when criticizing a Mock Draft, think of the logic behind the pick. When I see Mock Drafts, I am sometimes very surprised at who people have going in certain spots and even say to myself that a person may be much better or worse than a person has them being picked. But, at the same time, even when I make my mock drafts, I tend to think who the GM is going to take for their team rather than necessarily who the best player was on board. If you were to make a Mock Draft that was just a draft board, than everyones Mock Draft would be WAY off. So, in your analysis of a persons Mock Draft, what do you take into account? Do you think about what should happen or what is going to happen? I mean, every year there are major surprises, I am pretty sure I had Brook Lopez going 4 or 5 last year, and I was not alone. When Dwyane Wade went 5 in 2003, many people had him ranked at least a few picks lower, a lot of people even said that was too high for a small shooting guard (those people of course went into analyst witness protection). I mean, do I think Jeff Teague should go 10 with the suggested players on the board? No, but if I believed Milwaukee would choose him 10, would I make him go lower on my Mock Draft out of spite? Would that be the intelligent thing to do? Well, you can all make that call.
So, if someone makes a Mock Draft, one where they are serious about what may happen in the draft, than maybe it is better to analyze it a bit more carefully. With the way the draft usually ends up playing out, I know I feel like an idiot no matter how good my mock draft looked beforehand. Maybe my mock is better than the way the draft plays out, there are probably many people with mock drafts far better than mine, but in the end, when points are given out on this site for the upcoming Mock Draft, it will be on who scored the closest to how the draft actually happened as opposed to who ranked the players best according to skill in the league. Just something to think about when criticizing others and I guess even for making a mock draft as opposed to a draft board listing the best players available.
The way I look at it you base it off 3 things in this order; Potential - Need - Talent.
Using this Scenario Memphis would Draft in their spot like this.
Potentially Hasheem Thabeet could be the best Defensive Presence in this league from the Moment he steps onto a Basketball court. He's a very intriguing prospect, but he could very well turn into a Roy Hibbert in the same aspect.
When it comes to need, the Grizzlies need to draft a Big body presence. a 4 not a 5. Or define Mike Conley's role within the organization. If OJ Mayo becomes a point guard that opens up a 2 spot. If a 2-4 Swap is done then they will draft Tyreke Evans over James Harden. If the Swap does not happen the Grizzlies will Draft Ricky Rubio and play it out. I think their biggest goal in this draft is trading down for Jordan Hill regardless if they cant find a serviceable big man via trade.
Talent wise it's a tricky one. This is where I think the Grizzlies could draft Harden at 2 and play mayo at the point guard position and address a big bodied 4 later in the draft, run with Darrel Arthur, or sign one during free agency.
Theirs many different ways to look at from an individual team perspective. Making the wrong choice could cost your franchise years of misery.
I think that's how NBA lottery Gms look at it.