Julius Randle | Let's settle his NBA Outlook
I want to start things off by saying was on the record of saying that he wasn't athletic enough for the NBA. After revisiting his mixtapes, highlights, you name it, I want to say that I was dead wrong. He is big, strong, quick, fast and owns a powerful stride that reminds me of the King himself although he is nowhere near the top flight speed that LeBron has, he has the power (cue Bruce Almighty puns here). Simply put, he is a man amongst boys. Now, as far as his playing style is concenred. He does play below the rim. Many, if not all, would like to see him play above the rim and dunk on guys but I honestly don't think he can for two reasons: his wingspan and the competition. In Highschool, even with his mediocre wingspan and length for the power forward position, he simply could just put the ball through the rim even with guys all over him because of his combination of strength and athleticism. In contrast to his, for college he changed his playing style. With the fear of getting his shot swatted, he tucks the ball in his body and craddles it in order to shield to the shot block and uses his size to offset the block attempt and finish in an awkward yet effective angle (see his incredible bank shots, shows creativity and touch).
Now, I don't think he will get away with this in the NBA on a consistent basis. If he wants to be successful, he needs to make a living in the high post and work on his footwork. He needs to make the defense pay if they sag off of him. And in close quarters, he tends to pick his pivot foot up and change it from time to time. He reminds me of a more Athletic David Lee. That's saying something because Lee had hops and was once considered to be one of the top power forwards during his stint with the New York Knicks.
He will be a steal if he falls out of the top 5, right?
I've always hesitated to say that his athleticism reminds me of a poor Lebrons because of all the following hate that would come, but that is exactly what he reminds me of. Fast, strong, powerful and explosive off of one foot. Of course Lebron is explosive off 1 foot or 2 feet (though definitely a better one foot jumper). Lebron is also faster, bigger, more agile. But Randle is a unique athlete like him.
I think he has savvy. Sort of like Kevin Love. He understands angles and spacing. How to get his shot off under the rim with three people around him and still have the strength to finish. The athletisism is a cherry on top. His motor and conditioning is elite. The guy goes 100% all the time and that tires out opponents. Imagine being assigned the task of boxing out Julius Randle. That would suck.
He will find a way to score with or without a jumpshot yet Im confident he will develop a consistant mid range game. He will get your team extra possessions on loose balls and offensive rebounds. He has mobility to gaurd small PF's and strength hustle to force you to go big anyways. He is a game changer.
He can easily step in and be a productive player from day one, or he can suffer an identity crisis on offense and end up like Thomas Robinson
To me he is the PF version of Shabazz Muhammad. Against High school competion they looked dominant because of the intensity level and strengh they play with. The college level they were still good but not as dominant, because intensity and strengh were still higher than average. The problem is the pro game they won't have those advantages and there weaknesses become fully exposed. This is my opinion but I don't see him or Shabazz as anything more than than a hustle players on the pro level and not worth lottery picks.
Get ready for the negs to rain down like arrows.
You could put a second rounder like Patrick Young on Randle and almost completely neutralize him.
I agree with you to a point, as I do believe Randle is a little overrated as a prospect, but the difference in positions between Randle and Shabazz is significant. Randle, because he is a PF, will be able to get more touches down low and rebounds just as a function of his role.
For that reason, I think Randle will become a little like Carlos Boozer in the NBA, as long as he improves his jump shot. He is going to get a better opportunity to produce than Shabazz, who was really overdrafted, because his counting stats should be pretty good. I just worry that his defense, or lack thereof, will negate his offensive impact.
I agree a hustling PF could become a Boozer type if he works hard on his footwork and jumpshot and saves all his energy for offense like Boozer did. The reason I wouldn't draft him is because of Boozer and the offensive type big men. They put up decent stats which gets them overpaid by there teams. I am a Jazz fan and have watched for years the Bigs that don't play defense(Boozer, Jefferson, Okur, Kanter and even Malone to a point and Millsap although that had more to due with being undersized) I can say on pretty good authority they hurt more than help a team. They take up big contracts and there offensive production is almost always negated because the opposing bigs on other teams usually have career nights against them.
I want to say that Julius Randle is like Moses Malone, but I didn't start getting into the NBA until the early 90's.
Julius Randle does his damage inside, in the trenches. I think he is a good athlete. Solid vertical and great power. He just might not have the same QUICKNESS as a jumper like Andrew Wiggins. I think both guys will have verticals in the 38-41 range. (I don't see Wiggins getting a 44 inch vertical, and I think Randle can get up pretty well.)
Randle's body type is fine for a center. But Randle won't be able to help but adding another 10-15-20 pounds, whether he wants to or not. In high school Randle was lighter, in the 240's. This year he was 250 and was less athletic. By the start of next season he'll be 255-260, and he's going to be a below the rim player long-term. This unwanted weight, even if much of it will be muscle, will also hurt his motor, which already this year ran hot only in (impressive) short bursts.
I see him long term as a quicker Jared Sullinger without the BBIQ, ambidexterity, or as solid a mid-range jumper. But I also don't see Randle measuring out as tall as Sullinger, and we already know his wingspan is shorter.
Probably a solid 17/10 guy who doesn't actually make a team that much better.
I think Randle will be a star. He could really redefine the PF position with how he can attack the basket and bring the ball up the court. Once he can develop a consistent jumper (and possibly a 3 pointer) he will be really dangerous.
not a fan of his. alot of red flags.
low IQ, horrible defender, no outside game, 6'9 with shorts arms, shut down by defenders with size and length.
i dont see an all star or a star.
Yes. He is sketchy... I think I can write a 5 page essay just talking about Randle and his game. It is weird, very weird. People compare to an athlete like Lebron but the only thing in common is the way they can truck from coast to coast at that size, there is nothing else that you can compare these two athletically, Lebron is in another planet in every other facet.
a guy like Boozer must lead the league in getting his shot blocked and has made his career off the "pop".
kevin love is a three point contest winner, who finds way to score inside off the ball by hustling buckets and offensive rebounds put backs.
randle might get the off. Rebs but he is not a hard worker off the ball.
he is dangerous, if any GM decides to draft him over Wiggins, Parker or Embiid they should be immediately fired.
Btw I do see star potential, he does things that make him very intriguing but when you look at his weakness, and how these just mess up all the things he is good at, you end up with a non all star.
Like 60 of my negs are for talking against Randle, everything negative you can possibly say about him I have probable already said it, reading posts about him is like breaking down all the big posts I have him. From the Blake griffin lil comparison, to basically everything. I enjoy to talk bad about him because people love him, and I think he is really not that good.
Like I said he can proove me wrong, he has the potential, and I really hope he does because I do not dislike him, but things just don't add up with him.
To me it all comes down to the 3 point shot with Randle. His game translates nicely if he can take a defender out to the 3 point line and blow past him with his above average driving ability. I see his post game being severely limited in the NBA. Obviously he has the short wingspan but is also one hand dominant. If I'm working Randle out, I'm having him shoot about 200 three pointers in various situations (spot up, off the dribble, contested).
He just needs to hit the mid range. If he can he will score. I see no reason why he cant. Its really that simple. The IQ thing I have to question if you watched the tourney. Those Harrison twins hit threes when Randle read the double teams. He even spotted the double teams when playing on the wing. He needs to get his mid range jumpers up. The three will come. I do agree he will struggle over length but thats not where I expect him to score beside offensive rebounds. He will step out hit the mid range, then when they challenge that he will bully his way to the hole or free throw stripe. All star player I do not know but he goes in the late lottery he will be a steal.
you're making it sound like developing a mid range and 3 point game ia easy and simple. its not.
he didnt show an outside game at Kentucky. gives people doubts if he can ever develop one/
Also, yes he had a few moments in the tourney where he displayed a high IQ, but for the majority of the year, he's been a bonehead with the ball in his hands.
I think Randle is a guy who could step in the NBA and rebound at a high level right off the bat. His motor is pretty crazy, and I think on energy alone and his post offense, he could be a decent post player as well. During the course of the year, I saw improvement on his post defense as well.
Here's where it gets a little tricky. He looks completely uncomfortable guarding face up 4's, which the NBA is full of. When he's trying to guard a guy 10 feet away from the goal, well, it's just a part of his game he needs a lot of work on. His perimeter offense leaves a lot to be desired as well. He can put the ball on the floor pretty well, but guys can lay off and wait for him to drive because you don't need to respect his 10-15 footer.
I think he's a lot like Ken Faried, right now. He has a decent stroke, as is evident by his free throw percentage, but he's got a lot of work to do on his perimeter game, and that is what I think it will take for him to be that 20/10 player a lot of people want and think he can become.
His floor is fairly high, he's less risky than Vonleh IMO, but I like Vonleh more because he has the perimeter game going, and showed really nice flashes of being a good pick and roll defender, which is both imperitive and very valuable for 4's in todays' game.
I think Randle could probably put up 13 points and 7 or 8 boards next season, but I think for him to live up to a top 5 pick, he's going to have to expand on his perimeter game. IF he does, I think you have a good player, but the fact he looks so uncomfortable there right now, leads me to believe that's not as easy as saying he needs to do it. Especially when you have a bigger, longer, PF, like Vonleh, who looks to have the foundation to really excell in the pick and pop game, and provide better pick and roll defense, as well as rim protection.
Kevin Lov e shot maybe 1 to 2 three pointers a game in College. What was Westbrooks scoring average at UCLA? I think we all know the college game is deceptive and does not play to certain guys strength. Our thing on this site is to interpret what we see there thats not shown to us all the time in a college game. I liked Drummond a lot from what I saw in College. Yes his college play showed me what we are seeing. That is a gm's job essentially. It sounds like most are judging based on college play, college spacing and rules. Defenses dont recove in college wich is why there are so many 3 balls taken. Bigs get in foul trouble because they reach or are late in rotations in the NBA. In college you get Fab Melos in front the rim. Different game.