Joel Embiid future all star?
Joel Embiid has been impressive this year. There's no doubt about it. For only have played basketball for 3 years he has an advance skill set. But I would be worried taking him #1 overall. Yes he his size and potential and athleticism. He disrupts the rim and the surrounding paint. But what truly make him special? His fast progression and potential? It's hard to peg big guys and productive members in the league and I just don't see it with Embiid. I see a starter that might make a couple all star games. I don't beleive he is the type of center you can build your team around. There's too many question marks for me
He seems to have just about every skill set you want in an elite C. Showed post moves, footwork, touch around rim, agility, shooting range, rebounding, and elite shot blocking. Maybe his most impressive skill set is his calmness and ability to handle double-teams well and pass out of it. Plays with a mean streak and has shown the ability to pick up everything like a sponge he learns from coaches and teammates. The only concerns I have is how well will his health hold up over a whole season and will he be able to put on the muscle to handle the wear and tear of the NBA. If he can stay healthy and add a good 20-30 pounds of muscle then I think the sky is the limit for him.
I think it depends. He has all the tools/potential to become a franchise center. Will he fulfill that potential? Who knows. I would personally take Parker at #1 over him because of the question marks regarding his back (and he has a history of back problems), but even if he doesn't reach or get close to his ceiling he will be a solid starting center in the league.
Who is Jabari Parker going to guard?
If he stays healthy, I think he'll definitely be an all-star. Many times over too.
You bring up a very good point that I have tried to think of the best way to argue and have failed miserably.
There is no question Joel Embiid has the frame and athletic ability to be a very good pro. There's no question he should be a good rebounder, and a good defensive big man at the next level.
But what is it about his offensive game that has people fawning over his potential? I don't get why people think seeing post moves in spurts or flashes is the same as a guy consistently doing it. If you look at Joel's season, he was never consistently a good offensive player. He had a few big games, and did show a repituare of moves at different points in time, but there is a difference between this and actually producing at such levels on a game to game basis. He scored a lot of points on alley oops and put backs, which is fine, but it doesn't take very much offensive skill to do so. I don't think in his career he is going to be a guy who with 3 minutes to go and the game tied, you are going to start feeding at will in the paint to finish off your opponent. Maybe the days of those types of big men is over in the NBA, but even more a reason to pick Wiggins and Parker ahead of him. They play the positions who tend to be the best players on teams in the NBA now. And while Embiid has skills, there is nothing I see from him that makes me think he would be exponentionally better offensively than any of the top big men in the league now. Parker and Wiggins both have numerous flaws, but I still think they have a better chance to be year in year out all stars than Embiid does.
I've prolly watched 99% of the minutes Joel Embiid has played this season. I would put all my money on him eventually becoming (barring any back injuries) a guy you consistentely feed in the post. His stats (what you seem to be basing your opinion on) show him sturggling in some game because by the time everyone Kansas faced played him they would double him whenever he touched the ball in the post. Everytime. You can say all you want but if your getting double teamed literally everytime you touch the ball in the post your not going to be scoring too many points. And by the end of his season he began to really start passing out of the double team well. Just wait until he's facing 1 on 1 defense. Just wait.
And fair or unfair, the back thing is an issue.
The first half of Tyson Chandler's career was constantly hampered by a bad back, and he never really evolved into what people originally thought he would be.
I'm sure there are tests and such that can help a team feel better about picking him, but based off of how the season ended, it is still something worth noting.
There are many things I see that make him special. First most post players don't seal their player and look for the ball he does this really well. Once he catches he has great footwork and amazing quickeness for a player his size and also shows a soft touch around the rim. Another thing is he actually passes out of double teams and hits the open man. As you stated he is a great threat on the defensive side. His insticts and quickenss allow him to get to shots most guys wouldnt dream of getting to. I don't think he will have the career of Hakeem but I see the comparison they are very similar in style. I think he is going to be great and I would take him first no matter what team I am drafting with. As someone stated he isnt consistent yet with his game but with as little of basketball as he has played he will get there. Im sure most of you know the more you play the better feel you get for the game and confidence and consistency come too. I see fundementals and feel for the game players with 5 times the experience dont have and I think passing on him will show to be a mistake. Not that players like Wiggins, Parker, Exum, and Randle wont be sucessful because I think they all will be but Im taking Embiid.
Joel does have offensive potential.
Dwight Howard has been a high teens or low twenty point scorer for his career, and Joel, right now, shoots a better free throw percentage, and has shown more fluidity when performing advanced post moves. The fact Joel doesn't do them all that often is a valid obsveration, but about his first big game... he just got hammered with double and triple teams. If he wasn't such a focal point for opposing defenses he would have gone for 20 a night. When he'd get free or get going for a stretch, it wasn't uncommon for him to rattle off 10 or 12 in a half.
My concern isn't necessarily Joel not advancing offensively, but I think it hinges more on his continued developent in handling double teams. He progressed a lot passing out and re-posting this season, but obviously for him to be a 20 ppg player in the NBA, he needs to continue to improve there.
Embiid isn't a take the league by storm, 20/10 rookie type guy, but the amount he improved over a 30 game season gives me confidence that he can be at 17 or 18 ppg by year two or three. I understand there is some assumption involved here, but I watched him a lot, and saw him improve at a quick rate...from my experience guys that develop like that, usually keep doing so.
His 11.2 ppg doesn't jump off the page, but as he continues to learn to control his fouls, he'll be able to be on the court longer. If he played the minutes of Jabari Parker he would have been at 14.9 ppg and if he played the same amount of minutes as Wiggins he would have been at 15.9 ppg. In the 14 games he was able to top 25 minutes, his average bumped up to 13.4 ppg.
If anyone prefers a more polished, safer option with a top pick, I understand that arguement, because with Joel you get a guy who needs to get stronger, and a guy who just needs some more reps, but the potential is clearly there in my eyes. Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan are 10-14 ppg scorers by just putting back shots and being big and athletic...Assuming Joel will end up a 25 ppg scorer is a HUGE jump, and one I'm not willing to make, but I think his progression envisioned over a few more years makes me think he could end up in the 18-22 range.
I have an issue with the "If he played more minutes". That's a big IF I would say. I totally dislike when people use that for players that's a starter. If he was able to play more minutes he would. Being able to stay out of foul trouble isn't something that a lot of big men learn to do. I'm not talking about his injuries (I think its been over blown at this point), I'm talking about him being unable to play decent minutes because of stupid fouls he commits.
The things that I love about him is the willingness to actually do "Dream-like" post moves. Players in the league want to face up so bad that its refreshing Embiid would try to play with his back to the basket. But with Embiid it comes with a cost. He's not efficient at it and turn the ball over a lot while trying to do it. He doesn't have the feel for those moves (like which side the defense is playing him) he just does the moves. Which if you watched him, results in a GREAT play or a SLOPPY turnover. Having red flags about him is ok, I don't think anyone is a clear cut #1 though.
It was more to illustrate scoring rate. Maybe points per minute would have been a better way to illustrate this. Merely trying to back up the fact his scoring rate is pretty good. It's pretty evident fouls kept him off the court. Wasn't trying to make an excuse for that, as my post was only about his offensive potential, as I see it.