It never ceases to amaze me how people compare players based on race. I've heard multiple people lately compare Jimmer Fredette to Adam Morrison, and--unless you're looking at their skin color--you're comparing apples and oranges.
Sure, they were both big time scorers in college and could really shoot the ball... so does that mean that if a guy was a big time scorer who could really shoot, your team shouldn't take him, because he'll end up like Adam Morrison?
Outside of the obvious differences, you know, like one is like 5 inches taller than he other and one could handle the ball and the other couldnt't, or that they're totally different positions... there is one truly great reason Adam Morrison was a bust.
Morrison may not have been worthy of a top 3 pick, but he absolutely had the talent to be a contributor in the NBA. What the Bobcats did not predict was how mentally soft he was.
Is Jimmer as mentally soft as Morrison? I don't know. It's difficult to predict a thing like that. I wouldn't guess that he is, but only time will really tell. Sometimes it seems like all you have to do is hear a guy speak, and you can sense it. Kevin Durant, for example, is about as mentally strong as a guy can be. I'm not talking about arrogance--which is often just a disguise--see Chris Webber on that one (sorry if I offended any of you Kings fans out there, but it's true).
Another major difference that seems pretty obvious is the way Morrison and Fredette got their shots in college. Morrison was--mostly--fed the ball off curls or picks. On the other hand, Fredette had to create his own shots. Yes, he did get fed the ball as well, but not like Morrison. Research has shown that a catch-and-shoot shot is a much easier shot than one that is dribbled into. I've heard that the difference is in the 5% neighborhood, but I don't have any research to show as evidence. This point about Fredette having to create his own shot also kind of shoots down the comparisons to Redick, and Korver as well--which, again are basically created because of race and shooting ability.
So who does he compare to? I have no idea. I don't know. He's a prolific scoring combo guard who will be able to get his shot off in the NBA and he'll be able to score. He'll break a few ankles with his deceptive crossover, and if he gets the green light to throw up some threes, he's going to hit a lot of them.
The question is, what kind of defender is he really? Don't tell me how bad he was in college because that's not totally relevant. If you saw him play, you probably noticed that he had the ball in his hands 55-65% of the time on offense. He could not give every effort on the defensive end while expending that much energy on the defensive end. In the NBA he will not be asked to play the entire game. He will not have every play run through him. He wil not take 70% of his teams shots. He'll have help, and he'll be able to play harder on the defensive end of the ball. Again, I think a lot of his success/failure on defense will be because of his mental toughness. If he gets after it, and plays tough, then he can be an average defender.
If any of you are still reading this, I want to make one last point. Sometimes we say, that guy can't do this or that or whatever, and we don't pay attention to what a guy is great at. Jimmer Fredette is a great scorer. Not just a great shooter like Korver, Redick, or Morrison, but a great scorer. Those guys are rare. Of all the prospects in this years draft, only a few people are clearly great at any one thing. Faried is a great rebounder/defender and Jimmer is a great scorer. I don't know how good he'll be, but if you were to ask me which 5 guys in this draft might be able to be stars in this league I'd say DWill, Irving, Kanter, Knight, and Fredette.
When I compare the too I mean nba career wise. Will never be a great scorer like he was college, and will probably be a role player like jj reddick at most. This has nothing to do with skin color so quit trying to pull the race card in every situation. I could compare him to morris almond(scoring wise) if that makes you feel better.
I think the nbadraft.net comparison of Mark Price is very intriguing.
If that's Jimmer's ceiling (and I think it looks possible), then that's really not bad.
Especially in this draft.
Redick is not a negative comparison. JJ is actually quite an effective player, even though he doesn't get much time on the deep Orlando squad. If he turns into JJ that's definitely worth a pick in the teens in this draft
Exactly reddick has found his niche in the nba unlike morrison, he learned to adapt. I never said Jimmer was bad, but he wont dominate the nba, he will need to find his niche, which is normal, but those are my worst and best case scenario.
Im not so High on Jimmer. What makes him different than Jack McClinton, a guy who was actually a really good athlete and great shooter? McClinton still hasnt caught on in the league. You can get guys like Eddie House who cant guard anybody or play a true point but shoot the lights out for pennies on the dollar. Not sure why you spend a lottery pick on that.
Can people stop comparing Jimmer to Mark Price as if that is some sort of consolation prize. Mark Price was a four time all-star, he made all NBA 3rd team three times, he made all NBA first team (i.e., people thought he was the best PG in the league that year), he is one of five guys ever to shoot 90-50-40 in a season. There are no guaranteed all-stars in this draft. So, if the GMs of the league were given a guarantee that Jimmer was going to be the next Mark Price, then Jimmer would go first in this draft. Hell, four time All-Star PG guaranteed, I take that guy over any two guys in this draft.
Nobody in the league thinks Jimmer is going to be another Mark Price.
The Morrison comparisons aren't fair because you are talking about a guard vs a forward. But beside that, they are very similar. Morrison went off curls, but what made him special was the "put the team on his shoulders" skill. He'd rumble toward the hoop and throw up a tough shot that went in. He got to NBA and he couldn't carry the team anywhere except to the cellar.
But there is a role in the NBA for the guard who sits in the corner and cans threes. Look at the Heat and Chalmer or whatever that guy is. He is basically unguarded shooting threes and he has to win the game for the Heat. If Jimmer can just can the wide open threes at a 40 clip, he will stay in the league longer than Morrison.
Tallman, good points. I'd take Mark Price any day in this draft at #1.
But I think every body is missing my point. He's not a good shooter. He's a scorer. Huge difference. He can create. Morrison was never a creator. I'll agree though that he had that "put the team on your back quality"... which flat out does not carry over to the NBA very often, obviously because lots of guys in the NBA could carry their teams at the college level.
How about JJ Barea with a better skill set?
Jimmer is no NBA star. And I don't think he is going to be one either. He is a college star, but not every college star will be on that same level in the NBA. The NBA is much, much, different and harder than college. This is not to say that Jimmer won't be effective in the NBA. He certainly will be but not on the level that you are thinking, 27guy. TallmanNYC is right, there is a role for guys who can hit corner 3's. These are especially needed on contenders. Now I do think you are right by saying he is a scorer. He does know how to score, no question about it. But, just because he knows how to score does not mean he will be a star in the NBA. You've got to do more than just score and shoot very well to be a good player in the NBA. Even JJ Redick can score and shoot very well but he is no more than a role player on a great Magic team. You've got to be able to play defense, pass, play team basketball...etc. I haven't seen him play one bit of defense and I also don't think he can. I've read on other sites that he has very heavy feet, this is not going to help him on D. I also am not impressed by his passing game. He can pass somewhat but not anything like Dwill, or Chris Paul can. And I don't think he's going to reach that level either. If he is on such a bad team and such a great passer then he would have averaged more than 4.3 assists per game.
Like I said before he does know how to score, and that skill can be used as a great 6th man. That's what I see him as, a great 6th man. But not a starter, and certainly not a star. The comparisons to Adam Morrison are certainly not fair as has already been explained in this forum, but the comparison to JJ Reddick is not bad, and actually is very fair. But if you don't like this comparison either than the best I can give you is Mike Bibby/Ben Gordon.
of you may have missed. one jimmer CAN pass he hasnt had with byu because they dont have the talent for him to be able to delegate too. jimmer is a winner and I think he has a very strong will to do so, something that hasnt been talked about much- at least that I have seen. jimmer also has decent athletic ability and he can drive- he does have exellent court awareness from what I have seen. he is going to carve a unique niche in the league, he may not be a star but I would definitely think he has the ability and potential to be a long time starter in the league. I think your looking at a kid that is use to working for everything and in some ways he might actually have an easier time in the nba when he doesnt have to be the man. jimmer is not going to flop I would guarentee that and he is not as much of an unknown as some players in the draft. as much as kevin love was compared to wes unseld, I see a lot of pistol pete and dave bing in jimmer decent not great athletism, can shoot all day long- especiaally when he doesnt have the other team designed to stop him, and I know and it will be proven in time jimmer does have leadership qualitys - expect a more athletic and aggressive mark price. I never liked adam morrision he was a brat in mentality and a bully when he was in college, I did not see a classy character nor someone willing to work hard or be a leader. if anyone else saw the west coast conference championship game his senior year they would know what I am referring too.
Beno Udrih with more heart and range!
Back then when Morrison and Reddick were scoring points like crazy I was a firm believer that neither would be anything special in the NBA. Reddick was too short and one sided and Morrison was slow and ran funny lol. I did think Morrison would be better because he was "crafty" and was much more of a "scorer" compared to Reddick's "shooter". I am not sure if anyone remembers but Morrison had a career changing injury.... He had a so so rookie year and then he got hurt his second year. The Morrison we saw playing for the Lakers was post injury Morrison you guys out there in NBAdraft land have a good amount of Basketball iQ I am sure you did not expect much out of Morrison after an injury like that. I dont think Morrison would have been a star but I am sure he would have been able to get 15 to 20pts a game. The guy had alot of moves and he averaged a respectable 11.8pts a game his Rookie year. Leave Adam and his weird run alone lol
Jimmer is certainly one of the most intriguing prospects in this draft. I think he's going to surprise some people when the combine rolls around with his athleticism, he's very fast, strong and can change directions very quickly. People knock his athleticism, but I wouldn't be surprised if his vertical was over 30'', it's just that he's a shorter player who is particularly long and with a jumper like that is it any shock he doesn't play above the rim?
Regarless of where he is taken, I know a ton of people are going to be tuning in to his first game to see exactly what this guy does. I personally think he'll be one of the top 5 rookie scorers next season.
The problem with Morrison was that just as he would recover from one thing another would hit him. He was obviously drafted too high, but a big part of that may have been for revenue because the Bobcats needed to create interest.
He was an inefficient gunner as a rookie, then he got hurt his second year. Before he really had any opportunity to prove himself, the team picks up Jason Richardson and brings in a coach in Larry Brown who does not take kindly to defensive liabilities. Then he goes to the Lakers and the rest is history.
I do think the comparisons are horribly inaccurate but I also believe Jimmer Fredette is overrated. There is without question a game to the process of a guy's stock rising and falling. Being at a small school and putting up big numbers does help. Having the green light gives guys the chance to showcase a lot more than they could with better talent around them. Case in point Seth Curry, who likely would have been up there with Jimmer as a national scoring leader had he stayed at Liberty, but is now looked at as merely a solid ACC player whose flaws will be zeroed in on as a prospect because he doesn't have the big time numbers to counteract them.
Jimmer does not have an NBA position. Being a pretty good passer when you're the focal point of an offense doesn't make you an NBA point guard. Not to mention he would struggle with the type of athletes offered at that position now. At the 2, he pretty much has no chance being 6'2 and a below average athlete in the league. I think where he gets drafted will be THE determining factor in how successful he is.
How about we just stop comparing him to people its pointless. Jimmer is unique let him do his thing and see how he does.
I said that the mark price comparison is his CEILING. It demonstrates that a player similar to Jimmer's profile CAN become a star in the league. I think it's crazy to assume a 50% probability that he reaches Mark Price level. Perhaps there is a 20% chance.
BUT. That's very different from saying he's 100% destined to be a 6th man. Some people are writing him off entirely, which I don't think is fair.
There are some players who you can say are role players with practically 100% probability. I don't think Jimmer one of them.
u know Danny Ainge and Jeff Hornacek are actually the best comparisons for him,Ainge had very similar stats to Jimmer at BYU http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aingeda01.html http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=36409 http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hornaje01.html
Some solid points but I would have to say eddie house is the best comparison. High volume shooter and decent scorer when he heads to the rim on occasion. Jimmer's role will mostly be as an offensive spark plug off the bench unless he is on a team where the 1/2 is really weak in which case he should start and probably make the most of it for a time.
Jimmer needs to learn to be more of a facilitator and passer to be a good NBA point guard. He can create his own shot, he has a great crossover and can penetrate. Now he needs to learn to be able to use those skills within an offense and learn how to run an NBA team.
He didn't do that at BYU, he shot first and passed second. He should model his game after Deron Williams or Steve Nash. I really think he could potentially be that good, but he needs to change in order to do that. He also needs to learn to play defense.
If he stays as is, like many players do, he will never be anything more than an off the bench shooter/scorer. That's why I don't think he's worth taking higher than the 10-15 range in the draft.
Morrison to me.
Jimmer has already done some combine work last year when he explored the draft. He tested at a 36" running jump. His hops aren't an issue, they are fine and not super important for a guard anyway. But his footspeed seems below NBA average.
Someone above said he has to carve out a unique niche to succeed in the NBA. I think that is right, Jimmer needs to do something different and in someway play different. He did that in college. Nobody took super long range pull up shots or used off-hand scoop shots on drives like him. His game was unique. That is what he will need to do at the NBA level to have a significant impact.
and if he does have that type of career which i believe he is very capable of then he should go top 5 in this draft
how about this legend http://www.nbadraft.net/players/mike-gansey
Morrison is a guy who has wasted his talent. He's got NBA caliber shooting ability and I don't believe for a second he couldn't make himself better on defense. If he took a cue from Reddick and worked his butt off, hit the weights and sculpted himself there's no reason he couldn't be an adequate defender. It's not like he's built like a twig, he's got a solid base already. You don't have to be a great athlete to be a good defender, there are a lot of examples of guys doing it. Yeah, you're still gonna get beat off the dribble, guys are gonna jump over you, that's the NBA, the point is you maximize what you can do. Have the strength to body guys out of their favorite spots, make sure your solid enough that guys bounce off you on contact instead of the other way around, have good anticipation, knowing the tendencies of the guys your guarding, learn the tricks down in the trenches to pin guys down and the angles where refs can't see stuff going on. Avove all be mentally and physically TOUGH. When you play the kind of physical jock D guys get mad, there's gonna be trash talking, woofing and once in a while a guys might decide he's had enough and take a swing at you. If your a wimp and can't deal with that stuff you'll never be any kind of defender. It's a higher level of work to mold yourself into a good defender than developing offensive skills and many former high scoring players can't do it. If he came into an NBA camp looking sculpted with improved defensive and rebounding coaches might say: Hey, we can see this guy has determination to improve and work hard and we know he can score points, maybe we can find a place for him.
Also, the same determination to be better in other areas of the game might help his confidence with big shots. That was the real failing in his career. He shot OK during the regular part of the game but he wasn't clutch like he was in college. I saw him get the ball in a few clutch situations and he blew it every time. More telling he didn't look confident. He wasn't drafted to be an athlete or a defensive stopper but he was expected to be a guy with lights out shooting ability. He never showed it, but he might develop it if he could get some playing time. If a guy like Hedo Torkuglo can have a career why can't Morrison? Torkuglo doesn't bring any more athletic ability to the table, is a sucky defender but he can sure hit the clutch J, I've seen him drill some lasers in tough situations, he's not afraid and defenders are desperate to keep him from shooting. If you can do that NBA coaches will overlook a lot of other deficiencies. There are guys who have had long careers just by hitting the big jumper in key situations alone. If you have the kind of stroke Morrison has but falter in the clutch that's a mental toughness failing. Whether he can dig down and have mental strength to reinvent himself is unlikely from what I've in him so far.
The key for Fredette is whether he can bring the kind of swaggering lights out shooting touch to the NBA. Reality is he's a tweener, a step slow by NBA point guard standards and short for a shooting guard, the success rate for those type of guys is much lower than more prototypical guys. His clutch shooting will be the key for playing time to help develop the other areas of his game. Personally I think he's gonna do better than Morrison, expectations will be somewhat lower and he's better athletically. Morrison had the advantage of tremendous size in college at his position, he had a lot of unchallenged shots that allowed him to get a rhythm going. 6' 2" is not great size in college, he took shots under a lot more pressure - and made them. Of course, in the NBA guys are longer and quicker but I think he's going to be able to adjust. IMHO
Still, if I was a general manager I'd have a hard time justifying a high 1st round pick on him. Hype may propel him into a higher pick, maybe even the lottery but if I was a general manager I'd have a hard time justifying using a high 1st round pick on him. If he was around in the middle to late rounds he'd be a nice pickup.
Of course Jimmer won't be Morrison, Morrison has two rings.
Jeff Hornacek was a sg. And never had to handle the ball to much in Utah along side Stockton. He was only 6"4 tho, and a good passer. And their both great shooters. but Jimmer will have to do more than shoot if he wants to be a starter in the league.
It never ceases to amaze me that white guys are always compared only with other white guys and then the people making that comparison claim race isn't a factor. It's so bad in this thread that guys are going back to someone who retired ten years ago, Mark Price.
And let me add it's also true for black players who are almost always compared only with other black guys. However, there are so many more black players that we don't notice.
Think about all of the great college guards who were fantastic scorers who didn't play defense, and the only comparisons you can come up with are Adam Morrison and Mark Price? Are you serious? Morrison was a forward!
I'm sure you guys could come up with another 10 or 20 guys who were great scorers in college that played the guard postion yet they didn't play defense. Let's start with Ben Gordon and come up with a few more. I would bet that over 90% of them would be black guys, but why do their names never come up? The answer is obvious.