Jeremy Lin's worth?
I'm not sure if someone has posted this rumor, or anyone has spoken about it, but I just thought I'd use the report as a platform to pose a question to everyone here.
How much is Jeremy Lin worth?? A max contract player he is not, but he is maybe one of the top five potentially most marketable players in the league, and whatever team is able to sign him will see a dramatic increase in sales and attention worldwide. It's a weird thing to think about or gauge.
Personally if he was indeed interested in coming to Toronto and leaving New York (I know crazy talk), I'd think 8-9 per is very fair, however anything over that would be a polarizing business move that could hurt a team's ability to bring in enough other talent to win.
How much would you guy's pay, and where would you like to see him land?
Personally I think Lin is a product of Dantoni's system. 1st off, if all he had a simple miniscus tear in his knee, he woulda been back in action alot sooner than he's been out. Meniscus tears shouldn't keep him sidelined as long as he has, so I think there was something more to it than the Knicks led on. 2nd I think Lin is ok, but 8-9 million for a guy that played a few good games??? He played extremely well in Dantoni's system cuz he had the ball in his hands for majority of the shot clock. Thats why everyone is comparing him to Nash, same style. But he's no where near Nash or has anything close to Nash's shooting ability. But I think it would be a mistake to pay someone all that money for playing a few good games. Less than half the season of a strike shortened season. Mid level exemption sounds about right. I think if you look at a midlevel exemption, alot of teams make mistakes on that so it wouldn't be a huge mistake but anything more would be a gamble. I also don't think someone that dominates the ball is a good fit with melo. If you have a max player he should be the one with the ball in his hands
I don't think he can get more than a mid level exception but I may be wrong. I think you have to give him a 2 year deal at like 4 mil and make him prove it. He was hot for awhile but teams adjusted and he struggled when Melo came back. Due to injuries he was asked to have the ball in his hands all the time and that won't be the case for his whole career. I think he is a solid guard.
I thought Lin couldnt get more then 5mil next year cuz of his status of how he was acquired.
I wouldnt gauge his worth by how many seats he can fill. In the end, its about how many games the team wins and how well he can fit with the team. In Woodson's offense, he isnt going to have the same worth as he did when he was with DAnotni. They called Woodsons offense in Atlants IsoJoe. He changed it to IsoMelo when he took over NYK. Take into account the Knicks have a horrible contract which is nearly intradeable in Amare, Lin's worth probably isnt more then what he is worth in the media in New York. Then again, he could be on VH1, Where are they now in 5 years
I agree with all of you guys in terms of actual player value. I would be very cautious based on his limited success and system. All of your points were pretty valid, but if you were an NBA owner for any team (not just the Knicks) would you consider outbidding other owners by offering a considerable amount more than that value knowing you'd easily make that back in other sales?
as raptors fan i have heard (again just a radio speculation, theres no way of proving these things) that this is a ploy by Raptors to make Knicks pay more for Lin so they can go after hometown hero Steve Nash (Who can defintly fill seats as he is the new GM of Canada basketball) this is not that unrealistic when you consider the fact that Raptors have the most amount of money comeing in + Raptors current Gm is the same one that signed nash in PHX and the fact that nash said he is not going to be a ring chaser...the raptors have 2 top 10 picks coming in next year + some free agents which should make it a good team
2 years 5-6 million....10% back and a 1yr player option
If they could give him more than 5mil, someone would surely offer him 7-9m per year on a 5 year deal.
Simply based off hype.
it is business. he may be worth 4m/yr but he'll get more of than that. i doubt 8-9M its too much, but for the raps 18m for 3yr sounds good. at least they can get either lin or nash if NY matches up. or the heat will get nash lol
Lin is capped via the Gilbert Arenas rule. His max salary is tied to the midlevel because he was/is a 2nd round minimum salaried player.
As for the Raps and Lin? I'm a Raps fan and no I don't want him to be the PG on our championship team. I'd rather have Marshall out of the draft.
Lin still makes me wonder how well he'll do against the best PG's. Remember when DWill/Nets played him? No contest. DWill destroyed Lin. Its not even close yet. Right now Lin reminds me of Devin Harris... current, not the older awesome version.
Lin can still turn out to be anything... I'm just not sure what that might be yet. Likely never going to sniff being an Allstar and he's not better then maybe 20 PG's I would prefer to have off the top of my head.
He can make a lot in endorsements, however a bloated salary contradicts his brand and image. Pay him 4 mill
@hs, you know raps arent a championship team.. yet. and for more years to come. maybe at least 5 but i still doubt it.
Lin will be at least good, but this topic is largely irrelevant since he can only make the mid-level, as HotSnot said, and there's zero chance the Knicks don't match that.
I think he is worth the mid level, which is all he will get because of the Arenas rule. I wish there was no Arenas rule though. It pretty much caps out a guy for being a 2nd round pick. I know that for years sometimes being a 2nd rounder was a better deal then getting drafted because you had more options and if you played really well you got paid more and more quickly than the first rounders.
With that said, if this rule wasn't in place, I could easily see him getting 10 mil a year. He generates far more. Partially due to hype and partially because of how many people he puts in the seats. This guy came on late and I believe he ended up with the number 1 selling jersey in the NBA. If he even plays decently, he will likely be starting in the all star game. His smartest move was not coming back to play against Miami. I remember reading him saying he was 80-85% while the series was going on. From a competitive standpoint, you have to get out there at that percentage in your teams biggest games. Financially the last image people remember is him guiding the team back towards making the playoffs.
Lin is a starting caliber point guard, but not a star. I think he would have success in other systems as well as New York's. 7-9 million dollars per year would probably be his max contract, IMO.
He's in the group with Kirk Hinrich( when younger) Jared Jack, Darren Collison, Rodney Stuckey and others who are capable starters, but not stars and not really guys to build your team around.
But, I will say that I am not sure I would not want the Knicks to match that if I am the Raptors. The Raptors are coming off a disastrous few years of having overpaid Jose Calderon, why put themselves through that again? Sure, Lin probably has more ability to be dealt due to his marketability, but is he not almost the spitting image of Jose? Just with more turnovers, less of a shooting stroke and slightly more ability to penetrate? Personally, I see a lot of parallels.
Do not see the Knicks letting him go, sure that he will be worth every cent of luxury tax to James Dolan. Even if he is not for helping the team win, just have little doubt the Knicks give up on a player who for a while made them more relevant than any of there larger signings of the past couple seasons. Jose is luckily in the last year of his deal and will be a trade chip as an expiring contract.
Jose Calderon may not have been the scorer that Lin was on the Knicks, but he and Lin have a lot of the same strengths. They also both have a lot of the same issues. Doubt I was the only person that noticed this, but Lin was getting lit by faster, stronger PG's? You can blame Melo coming back or the coaching switch, but I think that ultimately he is a decent starter who one would not want to spend a great deal of money on.
Lin may average more steals per game than Calderon, but I do not see him as that much of a defensive upgrade. Also, his decision making eventually did become an issue. Any team that gets him will probably have an excited fan base, but to invest in him long term would be a mistake for the Raptors. That is just my opinion as someone who lives in Toronto and watches the Raptors consistently. Think there are better options in terms of giving a team cap flexibility. After Jermaine O'Neal, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu and Jose Calderon all taking up a lot of cap space for little return, think the Raps should go Nash or bust if they want a well known PG. At least Nash would not be on the books for very long.
Knicks can match anyone and will probably pay him the max they have to to keep him. Also Lin is a solid pg with great marketability.
I still don't why sites/people are talking Lin being on any other team besides the Knicks next year.
Just to clarify, I think Lin is a decent player. I think he would be great as a backup and seems to be a capable starter. My problem with him is that he turns the ball over way too often for a pg. I think of him as more of a sg that is in a pg body. That works for guys like Rose and Westbrook, which he is nowhere close to being either. The reasons I think he could get so much money if he was not restricted to the Arenas rule is not only his popularity, but because there is always a team willing to overpay. We just saw the deal Barea got and two teams willing to overpay Deandre Jordan. Neither of which has the same following of Lin..If you have a team that thinks he is a really good player and/or a star in the making, then who knows what they are willing to go to. I always take into account that many GMs and owners are irrational.
I believe quite a few teams will have some room this year and there is very little to pick from in terms of pgs from free agency and the draft. You don't see MJ interested even if it's just to put some fans in the seats. Atlantas arena might actually have people show up other than the playoffs. Not saying he's the perfect fit for either or that he has the same marketing impact as NY or some of the cities with more diverse populations.
he has so much to improve on....while he showed a lot of strengths, he showed just as many weaknesses. realistically, on a multi-year deal RIGHT NOW, I think he is a 5mil per year player. Thats not saying he wont get more, but thats what I believe his worth to be. I am not factoring in his "marketability". Only his worth as far as winning games. To me, more than $5 mil right now is a little risky.
Jeremy Lin is a restricted free agent and can only get a $5 million contract. The Knicks can match any offer Lin receives and retain his rights. He won't be going anywhere people.
I was only thinking maybe a 2-3 year deal worth 7-9 per as well ( I didn't know if New York would be able to match if they were over the cap?), that is of course like you said Steve Nash is unavailable. However since everyone is saying he can only receive 5mill/yr max then I would at least offer him that, with the idea that if somehow he came, he would build interest and be the stop gap that would allow us to move Jose's expiring contract for possibly a pick or young player to continue to build with.
I know his game isn't perfect, but he has gotten relatively little playing time up to this point and has a lot of room to grow as a starter. I expect him to develop and improve as a starter in the league, but won't go as far to put him into the top ten PG's or anything. Still there's a chance he could be top 15 and be a huge boost off the floor for a team. Plus he seems like the kind of likeable personality that every team wants.
Can't really pass up on Nash though if he wants to come home though, unless the idea is to bomb one more year?
True it seems like he'll be in NY then, for at least another year.