This topic contains 6 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by sheltwon3 11 years, 11 months ago.
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- Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 9:56am #38459
- Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:07am #661578
NbanflguyParticipantEvery season, a handful of rookies play as well as expected, but even more rookies don’t play to that level. However, I’d guess that most of the best players in the NBA didn’t play as well as expected as rookies. So just looking at today’s numbers is not enough to tell us how tomorrow will go.
So let’s dig in and see which players from this class, no matter how they have fared thus far, will end up being Best in Class … if they reach their full potential.
1. Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers
He’s been among the very best of his age group for some time. So dominating this draft class wasn’t a shock. But being so poised at 20 years old is a great sign. And his ballhandling skills, one-on-one play, outside shooting and flat-out scoring talent are enough to get him All-Star consideration for years to come.
If he develops his passing skills and game-management talent, however, he’ll become a surefire All-Star. And if he reaches his potential as a defender, then he actually has MVP-level ability. Cleveland hoped to at least hit a triple with the first overall pick, but ended up with a walk-off grand slam.
2. Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers
Take a look at the top 10 rookie rebounders (based on rebound rate). You’ll see guys who played four years of college, guys who have been pros overseas for years, and guys with huge, wide bodies that make it easy to soak up boards. And then there’s Thompson, who played one year in college and is still much weaker than most of his opponents. But that has not mattered.
Thompson really has very little clue how to play yet, especially around the rim, but he has been a very effective player on many nights. Given a few more years to figure things out, and considering he’ll be a long and elite athlete for a decade or so, it’s easy to imagine just how good he can be. He has All-Star potential.
3. Kenneth Faried, Nuggets
When a big guy has both a motor and quickness at elite levels, he’s likely going to be starting for a long time. Faried is just big enough to handle nightly starting duties because his gifts make him a very productive player, even in areas that don’t show up in the box score.
He’ll also eventually learn to make jumpers from 15-18 feet, just like most hardworking players do. His passing should improve some, too, as he learns to play with talented teammates (nothing like his college experience). And he’ll become more aware of the other nine guys on the court when he’s on defense. The Nuggets should be able to count on him to play 30-plus minutes a game for the next five-plus years, at least. They should win a lot of those games, as well.
4. Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves
There is some irony to Rubio’s game. Billed as a cross between Pete Maravich (absurd because of the disparity in scoring talent) and Steve Nash (equally absurd due to the disparity in shooting skills), Rubio’s best assets this season have been more on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota was likely a much better offensive team with Luke Ridnour at the point, but a far worse defensive unit, which is why I think Rubio will end up as one of the top-five players from this class.
It seems impossible to imagine that he’ll never become a better shooter/scorer. If he doesn’t, then I still see him as a nice player off the bench. But if he just improves his paint finishes, that will solidify him as a legit starter for a good team and make him an even more dangerous passer.
Add a midrange game and he’ll step up another level, and if he can learn to make 35 percent of his 3s, he’ll have All-Star potential. It’s not likely that he’ll add all three of those skills to his game, but it’s possible.
5. Derrick Williams, Timberwolves
As I suggested in our annual “Rookie-Vets” piece, Williams has the talent to be one of the rarest types of player: a forward who is a dominant perimeter shooter while being a top-flight rebounder. He’s not there yet, but then again neither was Kevin Love after his rookie season.
Williams doesn’t have impressive numbers this season, but keep in mind that he’s been playing on a team that hasn’t been passing the ball for the past two months. That has left Williams to fend for himself most nights, which he has done well on occasion.
Next season, a healthy Wolves team under Rick Adelman will feature an offense that is perfectly suited for an explosive athlete with solid shooting skills, so we should see a big jump in production from Williams. He also can be their best defending forward, combining power and agility.
6. Brandon Knight, Pistons
Knight may be the only rookie who wishes his season wasn’t coming to end. He’s been eye-opening good in April. Detroit’s “shoot-first” point guard wasn’t making shots early on, but he has slowed down and is now making shots with ease. It’s easy to see him becoming one of the better scoring and shooting point guards in the league, all while being a solid assist man who rarely turns the ball over.
When Knight was a freshman at Kentucky, I saw him as similar to Chauncey Billups, and that’s still where I see Knight going. He’s played basically 300 more minutes than any other rookie this season — a fact that should provide him with a huge number of reference points that will help him and his coaching staff create a summer workout plan. Knight, who is known for his tireless work ethic, and Greg Monroe will likely be the core that helps return Detroit to relevance.
7. Bismack Biyombo, Bobcats
As has been written in this space before, coaching, personnel and strategy all have an impact on an individual player’s performance. Since Charlotte has provided very little for its players this season, we can conclude that Biyombo has been mostly on his own. Coming from where he did without a conventional basketball education, that’s a recipe for disaster. Yet he has still been good on defense and looks like someone who can be a top-five shot-blocker in the NBA relatively soon.
With better coaching and more motivated teammates around him, Biyombo can actually be a dominating defensive force. Combine that with a better sense of how to succeed on offense — which he doesn’t have a clue about now, but he’ll likely improve given how bright he is — and he’ll become an upper-tier center.
8. Enes Kanter, Jazz
I’ll always have concerns about Kanter’s future as long as he is as slow and bulky as he currently is. But even slow and bulky can be devastating in the NBA. Just ask every opponent of Nikola Pekovic.
Kanter has a similar upside, capable of owning the paint as a rebounder and finishing a high percentage of shots in one-on-one post-ups. He also should be effective at helping to build a wall around the rim on defense and would be even more valuable playing alongside a bouncy power forward. Learning the game as a backup is fine for a player this young. In a year or three he’ll likely get the call to be the permanent starter, provided he continues to make real progress. It’s likely he will.
9. Klay Thompson, Warriors
This draft class is indeed weak, but it could produce three guys who become top players in three different categories one day. Irving can be in the running for MVP, Biyombo can be the league’s best shot-blocker and Thompson has a chance to be the NBA’s finest 3-point shooter.
Thompson has both a pure stroke and excellent mechanics, plus the freedom to launch at will. Even if he never develops another part of his game, that shooting alone in his fairly athletic 6-foot-7 frame assures a long and productive career. But coach Mark Jackson will do all he can to push Thompson to be a scorer and defender and not just a spot shooter.
10. Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
Leonard is an interesting case study. He is just 20 years old and has lots of talent, but he plays like a veteran in that he keeps his game simple. But I think there is a lot more to his future than that.
If he just grows as a player naturally, he’ll be a long-term starter who defends, makes deep shots and does a lot of “glue guy” things. If he were to improve his dribble-drive game, though, he’d earn a lot more trips to the free throw line. His huge hands also suggest he’d be effective at finding scoring angles as he clears defenders to better finish off drives or cuts. He has the game to average 15-plus points per game, while still doing all the other things he has already learned to do.
Other guys to watch
Alec Burks, Jazz: Can he learn to shoot the ball well enough to lock down a long-term status as the starting shooting guard?
MarShon Brooks, Nets: Will he ever be a consistent scorer from inside and outside the 3-point line? Can he be efficient and not just productive?
Iman Shumpert, Knicks: If he is a point guard, can he protect the ball well enough while finding buckets for teammates? If he’s a shooting guard, can he efficiently finish anything other than buckets in the paint?
0 - Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:37am #661588
Moon RiverParticipantI love Shumpert’s upside (NFL draft term used way too much btw), but in any event, I consider him a top 10 rookie.
Also- this guy did not get a lot of burn this year, but from the little I have seen, Jimmy Butler (Bulls) from Marquette could have a place for a long time in this league. Coach Thibs did not play him alot this year, but when they did, they typically had him in there to defend bigger scoring types (Lebron/Melo) that Deng was struggling with and he held his own. The scoring will come and we just might be looking at the 2 guard of the future for the Bulls.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:11am #661608
Jlv2012I’m not seeing the part about Isaiah Thomas.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22am #661619
MattHoopsParticipantGreat article…. I hope the Wolves stay patient with Williams. I agree with Jlv, I would have put Thomas at least under others to watch..
Here are some others I might have listed: I think I still might have placed Vesely there as well.. I believe Jonas Valanciunas has a lot of potential and so does Kemba Walker. I think Markieff Morris has proven to be a nice rotation big man who will have nice career. I think his twin brother will also be productive when he gets a chance. Could Chris Singleton ever become at least an average offensive player? If so, I think his defense will keep him in the league. Norris Cole can have a nice career as a 2nd or 3rd point guard. I think Kyle Singler will have a solid career when he comes back. I am a big fan of Chandler Parsons.. He does a little of everything and I think can be a nice rotation player as well.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:47am #661635
Future_Scout boardtop 5 future players… drafted last year… no particular order
my old list. as of now, im sticking with it
irving
derrick williams
marshon brooks
iman shumpert
klay thompson
0 - Posted on: Thu, 04/19/2012 - 3:22pm #661750
sheltwon3ParticipantThis draft was weaker than it should be surprisingly good considering the situation. A lot of guys came in ready to play even with the lockout. Can you imagine how good some of these guys will be after a summer league and full team training. I think in a few years this draft will vault up over a lot of drafts that were so so.
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