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atlienkev 12 years ago.
montauriush4
TomShoeThe Wednesday night recruiting decisions of Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad had obvious ramifications in the college hoops world, but both players are also already on the radar of NBA teams in advance of the 2013 draft.
You can check out a sneak peek of our 2013 Top 100 here — Noel and Muhammad top the list. As a whole, the list is still very much a work in progress. Scouts are still fixated with the 2012 Draft and we’re still gathering information — especially outside the lottery.
But if the 2013 draft were held today, this is what the lottery would look like:
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Kelly KlineNoel’s potential upside has him on top of the 2013 draft board.1. Nerlens Noel, C, Fr., Kentucky
2. Shabazz Muhammad, SF, Fr., UCLA
3. Cody Zeller, C, So., Indiana
4. James Michael McAdoo, F, So., North Carolina
5. Steven Adams, C, Fr., Pittsburgh
6. Quincy Miller, F, So., Baylor
7. Isaiah Austin, F/C, Fr., Baylor
8. Tony Mitchell, F, So., North Texas
9. Patric Young, F/C, Jr., Florida
10. Myck Kabongo, PG, So., Texas
11. Anthony Bennett, F, Fr., ???
12. Adonis Thomas, F, So., Memphis
13. B.J. Young, G, So., Arkansas
14. Kyle Anderson, F, Fr., UCLAJust a few quick thoughts on 2013. Noel gets the nod over Muhammad based purely on size and upside. Muhammad should make a more immediate impact, but Noel has the edge on long-term potential.
The three best returning players are Zeller, McAdoo and Miller. Zeller and McAdoo would’ve been top 10 picks in the 2012 NBA draft. Miller would’ve been a mid first-rounder. In 2013, all three could be top 5 picks in this draft.
After that, the drop-off gets ugly fast. By the time we are past No. 8, every player starts to feel a bit like a reach. In other words, as of right now, it’s hard to be too bullish on the 2013 NBA draft. The top looks strong, but the depth just isn’t there next season. Yes, a few players will rise like Zeller and Damian Lillard did this season. But overall, teams aren’t nearly as excited about this draft as they are the draft in 2012.
Declaration deadline
The NCAA-imposed deadline for college underclassmen to declare for the 2012 draft passed on Tuesday night. For the most part, the deadline is meaningless.
NCAA underclassmen can still declare for the draft up until the NBA-imposed deadline of April 29. All that happens from here on in is that players cannot test the waters anymore. If you declare between now and the 29th, you’re in for good.
Still, many of the top underclassmen have now declared their intentions the past few weeks. Here’s a look at some of the fallout …
• We’ve completely updated our Top 100 to reflect the players who have either decided to declare for this draft or who are still making decisions. We’ve moved over 100 players out of the 2012 database and into our 2013 one. It’s created some significant changes throughout the Top 100.
We’ve also redone our 2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft and have released a full first-roundMock Draft 3.0.
There is a consensus No. 1 pick in the draft — Kentucky’s Anthony Davis. After that No. 1 pick, Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Florida’s Bradley Beal, Kansas’ Thomas Robinson and UConn’s Andre Drummond will compete for spots 2-5.
Ironically, as of Tuesday night, only Robinson had officially declared for the draft. Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal and Drummond are all expected to declare but none of them conformed to the NCAA’s deadline.
Davis is a potential superstar. Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist and Beal are generally considered sure things, too. Drummond is a bigger risk, but after Davis, no one in the draft has more upside. Someone will swing for the fences for him very early in the lottery.
The next tier of players includes Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Damian Lillard, Terrence Jones, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Kendall Marshall, John Henson and Austin Rivers. All of those players have talent. But none of them are sure things, either.
In short, if teams don’t get one of the top five picks, I think you’ll see many of them trying to maneuver their way out of the draft.
• Once again, this draft looks pretty strong in the middle.
The late lottery/mid-first round now includes Tony Wroten Jr., Terrence Ross, Meyers Leonard, Arnett Moultrie, Royce White and Dion Waiters. Of the group, all six have terrific potential, and all six have a shot at the lottery.
The bottom half of the first round is also pretty solid. Lots of teams like Moe Harkless,Marquis Teague and Fab Melo as prospects. Even the start of the second round, with players like John Jenkins and Festus Ezeli, looks pretty strong. But the drop-off after that is pretty dramatic.
• We’ll be watching a number of underclassmen closely over the coming weeks to see what they are going to do with the draft.
Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal and Drummond are all expected to declare in the next week. Ditto for Kentucky’s Jones and Teague.
A few players, however, remain question marks. North Carolina State’s C.J. Leslie is a likely late first-round pick if he declares. Is that enough to get him to leave what should be a stacked NC State team next season?
UCLA’s Josh Smith has also been flirting with leaving and hasn’t committed one way or the other. Kentucky’s Doron Lamb would be a bubble first-rounder if he declared. That doesn’t sound too enticing, but I’m not sure there’s much Lamb can do to get considerably higher next year.
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