[Broken HelixParticipant]

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[ghettosermonParticipant]

 

How Lin fits Houston’s plan

It begins with Dwight Howard, but Lin is vital to the new Rockets

Updated: July 15, 2012, 3:47 PM ET

By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

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Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireIf the Knicks don’t keep Jeremy Lin, he’ll be featured heavily in a Houston renovation.

 

 

For five years now, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has been a canary in the coal mine for the basketball analytical community. He’s the first of his kind, really, as someone who rose through the front office ranks to become a decision-maker for an NBA franchise based on a background rich in analytical acumen. Statistically-oriented hoops fans all over the world have erected little Daryl Morey shrines next to their spreadsheet-addled laptops.

 

 

When Morey took over as Houston’s general manager on May 10, 2007, it was heralded as the beginning of the Moneyball age in the NBA, an evolution that would re-shape how the league operates. Teams are now using advanced metrics and data in more innovative ways than ever, and an affinity for numbers is becoming an essential part of a basketball operations team. Morey was at the vanguard of this trend. He himself wrote in the Economist, "The basketball world today can be divided between a new wave of objective statistical techniques and traditional methods of visual observation."

 

 

Morey has used these methods to do a quality job in Houston, and he’s been widely praised during his tenure despite dealing with injuries to franchise players in Tracy McGradyand Yao Ming. The Rockets have finished better than .500 in each of the three years since Yao was first injured, but they haven’t made the playoffs. In fact, they’ve won just one playoff series since Morey took over as GM.

 

 

While Morey has built competitive teams with undervalued talent and remained flexible with Houston’s finances, he hasn’t been able to escape a general basketball truism: You can’t win a championship without a surefire Hall of Famer leading the way (save for a couple of teams, like the ’04 Pistons). In the Economist article, Morey wrote, "Looking to the past is indisputably the best way to shift the odds in a forecaster’s favor."

 

 

He was referring to the surprising development of Jeremy Lin, but the same statement could be made about building a championship team. It’s a lesson Morey seems to have taken to heart this summer.

 

 

Morey’s offseason approach has confused some people, and it’s not hard to understand the concern. In my offseason forecasting model, the Rockets started with a baseline projection of 38.8 wins and have since dropped to 27. The 11.8 projected wins the Rockets have lost during free agency is by far the most in the league, but it’s because good players have fallen by the wayside in Morey’s relentless quest for a star player, namely Dwight Howard.

 

 

Here’s what’s left: Kevin Martin (who has one year and $12.4 million left on his contract, making him highly fungible), European import Donatas Motiejunas (who has so far been impressive in the Las Vegas Summer League), three first-round picks from the most recent draft, two players on rookie contracts in Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris and a whole slew of second-round picks and non-guaranteed contracts.

 

 

But unlike the New York Knicks, Morey recognized that his team was entering the territory of limited ceiling, and rather than consign the Rockets to Sisyphean-style mediocrity, he’s taken steps to escape the middle class by pursuing Howard and now Lin. Since Howard would be Houston’s new foundation, let’s start with him before getting to Lin’s impact.

 

 

Houston’s new look

The Rockets’ top three projected players if they trade for Howard and sign Lin.

Player	Min.	WARP	Salary
Dwight Howard	2,869	18.01	19,536,360
Jeremy Lin	2,752	9.33	5,000,000
Donatas Motiejunas	2,000	6.00	1,134,500

 

 

In an abstract sense, Morey can’t offer theOrlando Magic fair value for Howard, but he can offer them the chance to rebuild since Houston’s trade-friendly assets are plentiful. According to aMarc Stein and Chad Ford report, Morey is willing to send Martin, Patterson, Morris and Chandler Parsons along with some combination of this year’s draft picks and future selections to Orlando. In doing so, Houston could take back as much as $47 million in 2012-13 salary from the Magic (but that figure would decrease if the Knicks don’t match Lin’s offer sheet). As Zach Lowe points out, that happens to be almost the exact combined salaries of Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Duhon, Glen Davis and Jason Richardson.

 

 

With Howard in the middle, finding cost-efficient supporting players could make a real difference. Let’s take a stab at an initial Rockets rotation if Morey could pull off a Howard trade:

 

 

Centers: Howard, Josh Harrellson
Point guards: Toney Douglas, Duhon
Shooting guards: Richardson, Jeremy Lamb
Small forward: Turkoglu
Power forwards: Motiejunas, Davis

 

 

These nine players project to be about a 40-win team — at a cost of about $53 million, or about $5 million under the cap — though there is a clear hole at point guard and two pending situations that could change the look of the Rockets: The offer sheets to Lin andOmer Asik.

 

 

After a certain amount of silliness out in Vegas, the Knicks finally have an offer sheet in hand for Lin and are expected to use the entire three-day waiting period to decide whether to match it (Asik’s offer sheet hasn’t been signed, but that’s a formality and a matter of timing).

 

 

The Lin-less Knicks

Projections for two new Knicks guards if Lin goes to Houston.

Player	Min.	WARP	Salary
Jason Kidd	2,461	6.85	3,000,000
Raymond Felton	2,502	3.88	3,300,000

 

 

It’s been assumed that the Knicks would match Lin, but after Saturday’s reported deal for New York to acquire Raymond Felton from thePortland Trail Blazers, suddenly that’s no longer a given, which could be a huge get for the Rockets. Once we plug Lin into our forecast, Houston’s projection suddenly jumps to more than 50 wins, and the Rockets could still add to the mix with cap exceptions and minimum-salaried veterans. This is where Morey’s evaluative skills would come into play.

 

 

However, there’s one possible problem with this scenario: If Houston gets Lin, Asik’s presence would reduce the amount of salary the Rockets could take on, thus reducing the chances Magic GM Rob Hannigan pulls the trigger. Houston could involve a third team to absorb one of Orlando’s bad contracts, but that might cost it another young asset or pick (or both).

 

 

Of course, Howard could also pout his way through the season and leave as a free agent next summer, and Hannigan could choose to deal with another team, thus leaving Morey with his skeletal roster. But the worst thing that happens is the Rockets are starting over, and in this case, they still escape the middle. And that risk pales in comparison to the upside of having Howard as the centerpiece of a team that could get back to the playoffs and potentially make a run.

 

 

 

[NbanflguyParticipant]

edit: beat me to it

[Broken HelixParticipant]

Thank you, ghettosermon and Nbanflguy. You guys are great.

[HotSnotParticipant]

It doesn’t seem like the new look Rockets with Howard and a bunch of Orl. players would be much better then Howards current situation.  In that regard, with only 1 season to impress Howard enough to stay longterm…  Why wouldn’t he just sign with a team like Dallas free and clear next offseason?  Howard wants to play with reliable contributing stars.  Players who will be at an advantage at their positions everytime they take the court.

Lins Warp value is skewed because of the sample size.  I’m not sure if it will be higher or lower but I’m absolutley positive it moves from where its at right now.

[TallmanNYCParticipant]

 Hotsnot, 

I agree with you the sample size is kind of small for Lin (though 25 games as well as 600 minutes in D-league isn’t that small). But man, if you are saying it might get higher, well there ain’t much room for it to improve. I agree with you that we don’t know. We never know with players entirely. People said that Chandler’s year with the Mavericks might be just a career year. But it turned out that he had found another level and now after last year with the Knicks I’m sure everyone would say that Chandler is a top five center in the league. 

I think the Knicks should have signed him because the Knicks have the money and they have a small window while Amare can still play. But if they want to role with Felton, that is their choice. I’m really quite sure that Kidd will be better than Felton, so no matter who starts, Kidd will be on the court at the end of games. It is just too bad that Kidd couldn’t have taught some of his wisdom to a smart young PG. That would have been something I think. 

[Author]

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