If you are a GM, how big of a risk are injury-prone players?
Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, and Greg Oden have all had varying degrees and numbers of injuries early in their career.
How big of a deal is that to GM's? How many games does a player have to miss before he is a disappointment due to his injuries? Once a player reaches 'face-of-the-franchise' level, how durable does he have to be in order for him to fulfill his potential on their team?
I struggle with this, because if i draft a player, i want him to play at least 70-75 of the games in the regular season, understanding that there will be some injuries for NBA players during the course of a season. Some seasons may have more or less games, but i think that it should average out to 70-75.
Any less than that, even if the player is the 'face-of-the-franchise,' and you cannot depend on that player to help you win more than 12 games a year. Those games could be difference between missing the playoffs and have home-court advantage in the first round.
That, by the way, is one of the reasons why i am a big Russel Westbrook fan. You can always depend on him to be in the line-up and to play hard every game.
Thoughts? What's your number?
Dwyane Wade may have had his share of injuries, but he still played about 82% of his teams games. Not to mention, won two NBA championships in his first 9 seasons. Might not gamble on Wade much now, but in his first 9 seasons think many teams would be willing to risk it. Dwyane averaged about 66 games per season, including one season where their were only 66 games, though he only played in 49 last year.
A lot of things factor in. To me, Kyle Lowry was well worth the gamble for the Raptors due to his contract being pretty damn reasonable. He missed a large portion of last year and has injury concerns, but right now, if the Raps give up the 10th pick for Lowry, I would be alright with that as someone who lives in Toronto.
Also, it depends on the severity and frequency of the injuries. Not to mention the point at which the player is at during their career. With Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin, even Greg Oden, not much could be done after the fact. Griffin and seemingly Davis came back alright, as did Kyrie Irving for instance. Oden, well, the Blazers got to a point where they felt it was best to part ways, to which I am sure Greg was glad to move on as well.
Injuries are a part of the game and yes, sometimes they can be disappointing. Just think that if a player misses time, yet still plays a key role to make your team either better or a contender, I am good with them missing time. To me, 65 games is a mark I would hope my top players reached. 75% of the NBA season is about 62 games and it is reasonable to believe that a team can get to 40 or so wins during that time, which means you only need to go 10-10 to reach the 50 win plateau, which would make you a more than likely lock for the play-offs.
Honestly though, as much as I respect and want durability, I would be willing to gamble on some of these guys with a history of injury to get to the next level. Think in this day in age, you kind of have to. Ask Dallas in 2011 with Tyson Chandler and Miami with a probably 80% Dwyane Wade still giving them enough fuel to win it all last year.
If you're the Suns GM they aren't a huge risk when you got Aaron Nelson on your side.
Derrick rose played 78+ games in his first 3 years... acl tear doesn't really make him injury prone.
It doesn't make you injury prone, but it might ruin his team's chances at the championship for two straight years, depending on when he gets back.
I get your point, though. He might go on and be healthy for the next 10 years. I was mentioning him with other players to give a variety of injury proneness.
I think it depends on the role that player will have on the team. ofcourse if i'm the gm of an already playoff team, i will take the risk by drafting the injury prone player who may have more upside than another healthier player. Ofcourse if you draft a guy like greg oden then you really made a career ending gamble. I would not have a problem with drafting a player who will play atleast 60 games a season. Remember that even the healthiest players tend to miss a few games a year. Injuries are so annoying, I think that a collision injury or a bad landing injury is excusable, but one from overuse or tendonitis or strains is not excusable. Your paid 8 figures a year and can't take care of your body?? Players need to start powerlifting to strenghten their joints. they need corrective training and a lot of core training and overuse, other non collision injuries ill disapear.
A bit of topic, but as we are talking about injuries. I stumbled across this 2007 mock draft by Bill Simmons and Chad Ford, the other day and Simmons almost predicts how Oden and Durant career's will go perfectly to this point. mentioning how Oden's diferent sized legs could lead to injuries and that he never had the love for the game, then saying Portland should pick KD because he was a sure thing, true superstar, with a thirst for greatness. Oden was a worst case with injuries but it gives some perspective to how people look at injuries pre-draft and how Oden who was viewed as a franchise changing prospect was even moved down due to injury concerns.
Here is a link to the article
It'd worry me as a GM if my franchise centerpiece is getting hurt often enough to be called injury-prone. Usually, if he had a record of being injured to much he wouldn't be my star player. Andrew Bynum was expected to be the 76ers star and he hasn't played for them yet. If I were Philly's GM I would be sweating over my position because I gave up my star in Iguodala along with two highly talented building blocks in Vucevic (who could've taken over the Center position) and Harkless.
If I had a starter that was injury prone then the risk of having him would be quite high because I'd have to shape my roster so that I have a role players that are in his mould for replacement purposes. Steph Curry is a talented player but he's had issues in the past the Warriors have a serviceable back-up in Jarrett Jack who is by no means Curry-lite but he's a starting caliber Point Guard nonetheless.
Role players that are injury-prone are usually taken on a cut-price deal that isn't indicative of their talent level. The Cavaliers claimed Shaun Livingston a former number four pick that had the potential to be one of the premier guards before his tragic injury off the waivers this season. He's looked as good as he's been in quite some time in a Cavs jersey. He's a small risk considering that he's being paid so little but he provides experience and depth but the risk is there it's just minimal.
As for a prospect/young player that's injury prone, every NBA team checks a player's history with injuries. Guys like Sullinger and Perry Jones probably had some admirers in the lottery but their medical red flags scared teams away because they became such a risky proposition.
There are different kinds of risk depending on where the specified player is in the team's heirarchy, If your team is led by a player that is in a suit more often than in the team's colours, the risk would push me to move him because that's too much of a flaw in my roster structure whereas a starter wouldn't be as destroying especially if I had a hungry player waiting for the kind of opportunity to make an impression. In a nutshell, the larger the role the higher the risk.
I am always worried about injury prone players and have been negged on here for it.
I would never touch Bogut, Eric Gordon, Bynum or Kevin Love if I were a GM. Baron Davis, Arenas and Amare are others I would never give a big contract to....
At least Bogut and Love seem to want to play, I can't say the same about Gordon and especially can't say that about Bynum. He doesn't have the hunger or desire to be great.
Yao Ming was the other guy I always think about with any conversation about being injury prone. His career could have been anything but missed so many games that Houston couldn't contend with him.
I think Gordon has the desire to play, he's a very competitive dude, but I think he doesn't have the desire to play in New Orleans, that's all.
If he were with the Suns, who were tracking his injuries and doing preventative stuff you'd see how much he loves this game.
It also matters how a player gets injured. If a player has a freak accident and gets hurt, then that's understandably an issue of circumstance. Its the players that get worn down just in the course of a season. Bogut has the talent to be one of the league's best center, but like r377 said, I wouldn't touch him with his history.
Most of Bogut's injuries have been from freak accidents (and i use the term loosely when referring to Amare's horrid foul). He hasn't been on the court long enough to wear down.
If players have injury issues coming into the draft then this has to count against them especially across a long NBA season. Players can have injuries where they miss one chunk of a season or a season then come back and play regularly but the real problem is guys who cannot get to say 70 games per season or who break down come play off time. If a franchise guy missed the first month of a season then came back strong and peaked for the play off run then it isn't an issue.
Looking at a very durable player such as Dirk Nowitzki, this year was the first that he missed any real time, prior to that the most games he missed was 9 and that was in Dallas' championship year so that had no real effect. Up to then the most regular season games he had missed was 5 a season, which is very durable especially for a 7 foot big man.
In the draft, once a player makes it out of the lottery, I like taking a chance on a high-risk guy.
In general, if it's a guy that seriously injures the same part of his body over and over (Oden, Steph Curry, etc.), I generally try to stay away unless you can get them at a little discount.
Obviously in cases like Steph Curry, in retrospect, you would like to have him.