If Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones slid because of Injury concerns, Why won't Nerlens Noel???
Sully and PJ3 had far more offensive potential and were ready to contribute right away, they just slide further than expected and got drafted by 2 Title Contenders and couldn't find playing time...Lack of talent had nothing to do with them falling, they got Red Flagged by team doctors for less riskier injuries than Noel(ACL)
Other players like Dajaun Blair and Darrell Arthur have dropped on draft day because of injury concerns, both guys have had solid careers despite being labeled as damaged goods, for goodness sake Blair has no ACL's but he doesn't rely on athletism as much as Jones III, Arthur or Noel...Sullinger also never relied on athletism either, just sheer skills and strength downlow which is way I think he will become a great player in Boston...
I'm not saying Noel won't have a productive career, I'm just curious as to why he can't slide due to all the hub bub about his knee injuries and lack of size/strenght...After Oden, Bynum and a slew of others have proven to Teams they can't be relied upon after suffering severe injuries like ACL tears and Microfactor surgery, will a Team take a multi million dollar risk on Nerlens Noel in the Top 10???
GM's get fired because of moves like this...
A Team Owner has to agree to hand over millions of dollars to a prospect with glaring injury concerns and take it as a total loss if and when it doesn't work out, in the salary cap driven NBA I don't know why its even being discussed...
The #1 overall pick makes close to 5 million a year over the course of his rookie contract, players taken Top 3 reach that number by years 3 and 4, by comparision John Wall and Evan Turner are both making close to 6 million dollars in the final year of their rookie deals as the #1 and 2 picks respectively, Wall is on his way to a near max contract and Turner is viewed as being overpaid and underwhelming...Where would Nerlens Noel rank by years 3 and 4 of his deal???
Noel had an injury (no signs of future problems and if there is he might slide, we didnt know about PJ3's injury until after he was picked number 28), both of those guys (sullinger and PJ3) had risks of injuries seriously affecting their careers.
Noel is injury prone. Missed a season in high school with a broken growth plate in that knee and then another one currently. That's 2 injured seasons out of 5. Not good.
I think there is a fanbase and "experts" that are infatuated with Noel and cannot use logic and reason. It was hard for them to change their thinking once the mock drafts had him up there for so long.
Noel does have the marketing power of World Wide Wes (has had it since high school), so that has probably done alot in shaping perception on him despite his flaws and injury liabilities.
Sullinger had a back injury everyone knew about, Perry's knee injury concerns were withheld until draft day...Both guys were better players than Nerlens Noel hands down, and none of them had a torn ACL...
Why isn't Noel dropping on anyones Big Board or Mock Draft???
Have a knee injury?
Great point Scare crow, lots of risks here. Noel besides the knee problems just doesn't look that durable.
I had him second in my mock a few weeks ago with Alex Len at 1. Noel is now down to 3 on this site's mock draft. Man, I think if he falls past 2 it could be a big slide for him. I think the Wizards still look at Otto Porter. Noel would be good with the Wizards but I think they want to win now.
In the Bill Simmons podcast from Sunday he talks about the red flags with Noel and how he has been hard to reach.
I think the podcast said that if Noel is there at three the Wizards still wouldn't take him. Not 100% sure about that though.
I could see Len AND Zeller going ahead of Nerlens Noel.
It will be interesting to see.
By far the best Noel thread made on the site.
He may slip, but it won't be in the 20's like the other guys you mentioned, he will still be top 10.
Both of those guys came back and pretty much had the same production as Sophomores as they did as Freshmen. I think that was an additional reason for their slides. Perry couldn't take the helm of a disappointing Baylor squad while consistantly getting owned by 1st round projected PF's and Jared Sullinger missed games due to injury and as a result was less efficient during is 2nd college season. Noel doesn't have a disappointing Sophomore season to effect his stock either.
I think he'll slide, because he's most likely not going #1, but it's not going to be a crazy one where he drops into the 20's or something like that. I think #6 is probably his floor considering NO isn't convinced Lopez is their future center, but he's still good enough to hold down the fort for a year or two while a project like Noel gains some steam.
JoeWolf Jared sullinger never missed a single game while at Ohio state
I think the reason why we won't see a PJ3/Sullinger type fall from Noel is because 6'11'' 3/4 defensive masters don't grow on trees in this league compared to undersized 4s and highly athletic tweeners. And that's not to say pj3 or sully won't have special careers just that in the draft you really don't know who u have picked in a player until he shows up for his first nba practice.. You can watch all the film u want but the nba is a different animal and GM's in those top draft slots want to hit a home run of course but also keep their jobs.. Once those red flags were out about pj3 ..teams got scared and started looking at his floor more than his ceiling "do we really want tyrus Thomas/ Anthony Randolph 2.0 with our top 5 pick?" And in terms of sully ... Back issues for bigs are incredibly hard to shake and when looking at the type of player he was physically on college (basically just over powered the college kids something he won't be able to do right away in the league) he looks more like a less athletic Verison of Brandon bass... Not exactly a home run .
But with Noel looking at his floor it's more Marcus camby. Strong defender/rebounder/ shot blocker / quick hands / but limited offensively scoring on putbacks/ hustling on the break/ and alley ops... That's still pretty darn good and you already know he has nba ready defensive skills. With that said I do not believe he'll be the #1 pick but the won't slide past six... I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see charolette or NO grab him and sit him all year and put them in better position for next yrs loaded draft... Which brings up another reason why he won't fall to far from 1 ... This draft is pretty weak and void of lottery worth talent... If this happened a yr from now or even last yr we would see a much bigger drop but not many starters let alone potential all stars in this draft
Camby was a Defensive Player of the Year for Denver, he was an anchor on defense for several years...
Noel will be very lucky if he even sniffs Camby's production...
Nobody is using logic when it comes to Noel's actually ability and how his injury will effect his durability going forward
This is the Big Question, are you willing to waste a Top 10 pick and several million dollars of guaranteed money on Noel when he's got as many Red Flags as any other prospect we've seen Red Flagged recently...
I see people afraid to Mock Him lower than the Chad Ford's or nbadraftnet's of the world because they don't see him falling...Has everyone drunk the kool-aid or what???
If talented guys like Sullinger or Jones III werent worth the risk, why is Noel??? Stop telling me about his defensive potential because the league is full of players with lenght and shot blocking ability, in fact they overpay them frequently...Miami and San Antonio are playing for a championship and neither of them has a player like Noel on their roster, unless you count Birdman or Joel Anthony...
I agree with a lot of what you said. I don't think people are giving Noel's ACL injury as much merit as it deserves. They also turn the other cheek on issues like his weight and offensive potential. You have to understand 3 things though:
1. This is a pretty weak draft. Not even a clear #1 like usual, so players like Noel will naturally have more notoriety.
2. JoeWolf is right! Sullinger and Jones were coming off underwhelming sophomore seasons. Had they came in as freshman they likely would've gone higher. Noel is coming in at an optimum time. His stock couldn't have been much higher before his injury. The injury came before the tournament so didn't have to worry about the ridicule of bad tournament play, AND to his advantage his team performed HORRIBLE without him making his impact on the team much more clearer than usual.
3. It's a draft. No one knows what will become of ANY of these players yet, that's why they're called prospects. You're just as entitled to believe Noel will be a bust as someone is to believe he can have a career similar to Camby. We're gonna need a few NBA years to figure out what he can become.
PJ3 didn't fall due to injury concerns. He fell because he just wasn't that good and it was sheer "potential" you were drafting on. Noel, when he played was really really raw on offense (picked up a lot of assists despite this) but was a monster on defense. ACL tears, happen, people return from them I'm personally more concerned about Len having stress fractures in his feet.
Last year > this year
Based on talent alone, this year sucks. If nerlens entered last year he would be late lottery or early 1st rnd. The reason why he wont slide out of top 5/10 is because there arent alot of game changers in this draft.
I think the main issue here is the type of injuries we're talking about. Players, especially young ones, repeatedly come back from knee injuries, but not always. So yes, there's a certain level of risk in taking Noel, but if it were a back injury, I believe things would be very different.
A BACK Injury in a young player, especially one who will be down low banging bodies all night, is scary to a GM. For example, I think most of them correctly felt the risk/reward ratio on Sullinger was tilted way too much towards the injury.
Although knee injuries are serious, the structure of the knee is easy for doctors to see. But back injuries are often very difficult to diagnose, and more importantly, ascertain if it will be the kind of back injury which impacts a player throughout his career.
We don't know yet. Medical reports are usually released the week of the draft, which is when players get "red-flagged" If you remember last yr PJ3 & Sully were mocked top-10 until a day or 2 before the draft
He will slide.
Because those drafts were strong.
This class is so weak, Sullinger and PJ would have gone top-10 in this draft.
Nerlens Noel floor as Marcus Camby is still a pretty bold prediction. Camby has played 17 years in the NBA "396 Regular season games missed". Up until 2010 he was a for sure 10 and 10 guy in 30 minutes thats pretty productive floor
If it was me I would be very scared taking a rail skinny player with 2 knee injuries before coming into the NBA.The chances of putting more weight on him without further compounding the knee issues would scare me off
Wasnt just injury with those. Sullys he it plus lack of athletic ability added to injury is what caused him to drop. Perry jones softness plus not much progression from year one to two plus average skill with his injury caused him to drop