[zruc57Participant]

Every year, we fall the trap, that this Senior is dominating college basketball, and is picked in the first round, then sucks in the pros. Whether it be Shabazz, or Jimmer, or Hansborough, or Morrison, it seems pretty obvious that spending a high first round pick on a college senior in the modern NBA is a bad idea.

 

Yet we still do it! Everyone talking about Kaminsky now, but Im pretty confident that he will bust out like the rest. I mean this guy is the same age as Anthony Davis. Its almost unfair that someone his age gets to compete against 18 and 19 year olds.

 

So why do NBA scouts keep falling for it? Why do they draft these seniors, who look great in the tourney, and they almost always bust (not guys in the second round, where there is no such thing as a bad pick really, but spending high picks)? its pretty strange to me that a group of a very smart people, smarter than  me, and making the same basic mistake over and over again. Kaminsky will be drafted in the lottery, and he will probably suck (I like Kaminsky as a person, just as I liked Dougie Mcdermott).

[llperez]

 you could just as easily make a list of one and doners who were drafted on potential and busted. The draft is not an exact science. Kaminsky is a big man with great footwork and touch who can face up and post up. He has offensive moves that i would say 75% of nba bigs dont have regardless of age. I actually think being a sr is holding his stock back. You cant just compare him to guys who played different positions and say becasue they busted that means he will bust. His defensive limitations are his only real concern but unlike some of those other guys you mentioned, bigs are easier to hide defensively. he wont be out on the perimter on an island.

[llperez]

 you could just as easily make a list of one and doners who were drafted on potential and busted. The draft is not an exact science. Kaminsky is a big man with great footwork and touch who can face up and post up. He has offensive moves that i would say 75% of nba bigs dont have regardless of age. I actually think being a sr is holding his stock back. You cant just compare him to guys who played different positions and say becasue they busted that means he will bust. His defensive limitations are his only real concern but unlike some of those other guys you mentioned, bigs are easier to hide defensively. he wont be out on the perimter on an island.

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 There are plenty of Seniors who have succeeded in recent years too. Damian Lillard, Brandon Roy, Draymond Green, Mason  and Miles Plumlee, Robert Covington, Tyler Zeller, Jae Crowder, Mike Scott, Kenneth Faried, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons. For every Jimmer or Shabazz, there is a Parsons or Draymond Green. 

[arambone2]

 And almost every successful senior you list here was drafted too low, in most cases way too low, like bottom of the first round or second round.

So this idea that seniors are overrated and overdrafted doesn’t hold any water.

 

 

 

[arambone2]

 And almost every successful senior you list here was drafted too low, in most cases way too low, like bottom of the first round or second round.

So this idea that seniors are overrated and overdrafted doesn’t hold any water.

 

 

 

[TRC1991Participant]

Damian Lillard was a junior when he entered.

[TRC1991Participant]

Damian Lillard was a junior when he entered.

[King CaluchaParticipant]

 Lillard was a senior

[King CaluchaParticipant]

 Lillard was a senior

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 There are plenty of Seniors who have succeeded in recent years too. Damian Lillard, Brandon Roy, Draymond Green, Mason  and Miles Plumlee, Robert Covington, Tyler Zeller, Jae Crowder, Mike Scott, Kenneth Faried, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons. For every Jimmer or Shabazz, there is a Parsons or Draymond Green. 

[vulture711Participant]

 Scouts somoehow feel after 4 years you’ve maxed your potential whereas a frosh has more "upside"

Of course, if you want a guy to come in and contribute right away, an experienced guy has that edge

There is a stigma to staying – he didn’t come out – might not be that good – where a Dante Exum could stay shrouded in mystery

 

 

[vulture711Participant]

 Scouts somoehow feel after 4 years you’ve maxed your potential whereas a frosh has more "upside"

Of course, if you want a guy to come in and contribute right away, an experienced guy has that edge

There is a stigma to staying – he didn’t come out – might not be that good – where a Dante Exum could stay shrouded in mystery

 

 

[giddyup123Participant]

"For every Jimmer or Shabazz…" Woah!? Shabazz Napier is an undersized lead guard that came into the league with high expectations following an incredible senior season (after essentially being picked as a means of convince Lebron to stay following his announcement that he "loved" Shabazz’s game). He’s played part of one season in the league on a team with 2 or 3 other PGs and has still put up relatively decent numbers and percentages. Way to early to judge the dude! Come on now

And I agree, the draft is absolutely an inexact science especially when we consider off-the-court factors like work ethic, character, etc. There are busts regardless of players age, size, position, potential

[giddyup123Participant]

"For every Jimmer or Shabazz…" Woah!? Shabazz Napier is an undersized lead guard that came into the league with high expectations following an incredible senior season (after essentially being picked as a means of convince Lebron to stay following his announcement that he "loved" Shabazz’s game). He’s played part of one season in the league on a team with 2 or 3 other PGs and has still put up relatively decent numbers and percentages. Way to early to judge the dude! Come on now

And I agree, the draft is absolutely an inexact science especially when we consider off-the-court factors like work ethic, character, etc. There are busts regardless of players age, size, position, potential

[TRC1991Participant]

There’s plenty of freshmen that have come out and done very little also (Xavier Henry, Anthony Bennett, Archie Goodwin, Moe Harkless, Austin Rivers, Marquis Teague)

Sophomores… (Kendall Marshall, Meyers Leonard, Royce White)

Juniors… (Arnett Moultire, Jared Cunningham, John Jenkins)

 

 

not an exact science at all.

[TRC1991Participant]

There’s plenty of freshmen that have come out and done very little also (Xavier Henry, Anthony Bennett, Archie Goodwin, Moe Harkless, Austin Rivers, Marquis Teague)

Sophomores… (Kendall Marshall, Meyers Leonard, Royce White)

Juniors… (Arnett Moultire, Jared Cunningham, John Jenkins)

 

 

not an exact science at all.

[Warned2820Participant]

Morrison left after his jr year.

[Warned2820Participant]

Morrison left after his jr year.

[Author]

Posts