Greg Oden's Future - I think that it's outside of the Pacific Northwest!
I recently shocked my best friend (and fellow NBA Draft nut) with a bold prediction. I feel that the Blazers are legit title contenders RIGHT NOW. Of course, this is predicated by a big addition (probably at PG). What would seal the deal is a blockbuster trade bringing in an All-Star. I think that the Blazers feel this way too, if what Shaq says is true and the Blazers did try to make a run at him. But that's not what shocked anyone. My question about Greg Oden's future did.
My question is this. What is Greg Oden's future with the Portland Trailblazers? There are varying opinions on where he will be, as far as development, in 2 seasons. My personal belief is that Oden will show flashes of Top 5 talent but will have injury concerns and developmental stumbles. 2 seasons from now, Greg Oden will be in a situation where his contract might be up (unless he signs an extension).
Now Aldridge and Roy would have theoretically signed new deals before 2010-2011. Now, being a Bulls fan, I have seen what players like Luol Deng get paid based on potential. If Roy and Aldridge are making $15 million (I am just guessing, maybe I'm way off), would the Blazers be willing to offer Oden the same thing? I don't think that he would have earned it, but I think quite a few teams would offer him a boatload of cash if the Blazers don't. Especially those teams that lost out on the big 2010 free agents.
If the Blazers have 3 players taking up 80% of their salary, they would basically have to commit to this "core" for half of a decade. If they have a six man rotation, that's 3 other guys making 5 million per. Look, I know that this is simplistic in it's numbers but that's not the point. I think that Webster, Outlaw, Fernandez, etc. will actually be signed to more than $20 million anyway. Let's say that they have Bayless, Webster, Fernandez, and another player they added (on a side note, Kirk Hinrich is telling friends and family that he is going to Portland by the way) or Outlaw or Patrick Mills, etc. So, that's 20-30 million, with Aldridge and Roy's $30 million, where is the money for Oden?
I think that his future is a trade. I think that they should make a run for Bosh or Amare right now. Oden would be the best return for both Toronto or Phoenix and Bosh, Aldridge, and Roy would make a championship contender. That also takes the gamble on "potential" out of Portland's hands and gives them an opportunity to pay for the guys who have actually produced in the NBA.
At least with a proven stud at "center" (I know that Bosh and Amare are REALLY PF) they know that the money is well spent. This Portland team has the makings of a 10-15 year contender if their GM does it right, and I personally have as much confidence in Pritchard as I have in any of the great GM's in the league. Plus, the luxury tax isn't an issue with Paul Allen as the owner. The only thing that hinders them is the salary cap, which WILL be a decider as they move forward.
So, what do you guys think? Is it crazy to trade Greg Oden? Should the Blazers hang on to him and hope he reaches his potential? Quite honestly, I think he is one injury away from scaring off a good portion of NBA GM's. Portland would still be selling "high" and they are going to have some tough decisions in the next couple of seasons. Trading away Oden's "potential" will take away some of that guess work and bringing in a proven commodity (some BIG names are available) will create an instant title contender.
they have to give Oden a year to prove himself before they trade him.
Trading for Amare would be pretty risky considering he's had surgery on both knees, microfracture surgery (condition was much worse than Oden's) & has injured his retina twice. Bosh is basically the same player as Aldridge, so that doesn't make sense either.
I say you hold on to Oden. It's way to early to even be thinking about a trade. Oden is 100% healthy & has been busting his ass all summer. I've heard he's lost 10-15 lbs already & has regained his explosiveness. The emphasis of his summer training has been lower body strength, core strength & conditioning. Portland has also talked about bringing in a specialist to work w/ Oden on his offensive game (back to/facing the basket post moves, etc). I still think his future is too bright to even whisper the word trade.
What trade is a piece of s---? Where I said Bosh or Amare? I used those names only because they are the 2 biggest names rumored to be on the market.
After 2009-2010, Aldridge and Roy are going to be seeking a new deal, right? What do you guys think they are going to get paid per season?
I am estimating the 2010-2011 NBA salary cap to be $60,000,000.00 and that might be a high number. If Roy gets paid close to a max deal (which he will probably command) and Aldridge gets paid fair market value 6'11" PF who averages 18ppg, 7rpg in 2008-2009 (and 20ppg, 8rpg, 2bpg in playoffs I think) which could improve significantly this upcoming season to VERY close to 20 and 10. What would he be worth on the open market? I am saying that Roy and Aldridge would be almost half of the Blazers salary under the salary cap. About 30 million out of 60 million.
So, if Oden gets hurt again he's going to scare off a lot of GM's. Right now, he has value. If he steadily improves and doesn't get another serious injury but doesn't become a sure-fire all-star (some people, not me but some people are calling him a potential bust based on injury) what will he be offered on the open market?
What if he's putting up 16ppg and 7rpg? What would the Blazers offer? What would another team that is desperate for a big man and has a ton of room under the cap offer? Especially because a lot of teams are gambling on landing a big name guy in 2010 and there are a lot of expiring contracts. There will be a lot of teams with room under the cap.
I don't think the Blazers are going to want to commit to Oden the money someone else will 1 season after giving away half of their budget to 2 players. I could be wrong, but if Oden doesn't turn into a stud the Blazers are overpaying him in 3 seasons. If he's injured again the Blazers are just wasting money. They are close to being considered title contenders now. Why don't they spend the money on a proven commodity? They already have 2 young studs, having 3 isn't easy to do in today's NBA. It just handcuffs teams if they are paying top dollar based on potential.
i think tthey have to wait another year for oden. i heard his injury's recovery time is at average 2 years. so i think he can do much better this year.
every heard of Joel Pryzbilla who has been a consistent center for the blazers, playing better than oden for the past couple years
you should really &$#%#&@! off
Look, I don't think that it would be a great idea to trade him. I just have seen what happens when young "cores" are threatened by contract issues. I think any team in the league would want Oden now, that's my point. What is going to happen when his contract comes up? The Blazers are probably going to offer him the farm. They will basically be moving forward with 3 guys, Roy, Aldridge, and Oden taking up there "big" contracts. Looking at teams that pay a guy based on potential who has injury problems it really puts a team on the spot with a gamble. I just said Bosh or Amare, like I said, because they were the 2 big guys who are rumored to be on the block. Oden could be a HOF center for all I know. It's just going to be hard to maneuver under the cap if they pay him top dollar (along with Roy and LaMarcus) and he doesn't reach his potential.
Paying for potential is always risky and Oden's upside is worth the risk. They only reason I even bring this up is because of his injury history. I mean, this guy hasn't been in the league 3 seasons yet and has had 2 knee problems and in his 1 year of college had a wrist (I think it was his wrist) injury. The difference with Amare is that he proved himself to be 1 of the best "centers" in the league before those injuries started happening. Oden hasn't proven much yet and has already had a string of pretty bad injuries. I know that it is very unlikely to ever happen, NBA teams don't usually move young centers with as much upside as Oden. But, there are young big men available who have already proven themselves and who also could offset the risk of Oden going on to greatness with another team. Especially when a team already has 2 stud young guys in the fold.
Oh and the nutjob who keeps saying f this trade, calm down. I still don't know what trade you are talking about. I only put a couple of guys, Amare and Bosh, into the mix because they are rumored to be available. 2 All-Star centers are on the trading block, when does that happen? What trade are you so pi ssed about? What, Amare for Oden? Oh boy, that would be so terrible wouldn't it. Having Joel P, Amare, and Aldridge in the post. Man, could Amare possibly improve on Oden's 5 points and 6 rebounds in the playoffs?
Look, I know that Oden is going to get better. The problem is that a rookie contract is only MAX 4 years long. 2 of those years are up and the Blazers don't know what they have yet. If he makes normal strides, he'll still be a small risk in 2 seasons when he POSSIBLY tests the free agent waters and gets offers from a lot of teams. If he gets hurt again, he'll be a hell of a lot more affordable, but he doesn't really help the team while he's sitting in a suit on the bench. The Blazers are in the playoffs now, if the guy gets hurt again it's like he's not even there. The Blazers haven't gotten much from him yet. Would anyone say this guy ISN'T injury prone? Maybe your other 2 young all-star (potentially with LaMarcus) players would like a consistent stud alongside them to help them get deep into the playoffs. You know, it's not a lock that they resign with the Blazers either.
I worry for Oden's future. I think some teams might not want to trade for him because of what is happening to Yao and what has happened to other big guys historically. Maybe Oden's joints just can't support his body.
sam cassel..... i won
Let's be mature adults here.
As far as Oden goes, the key is staying on the court. That means in the next two seasons, he will have to prove he can stay out of foul trouble and avoid injuries. But if he does, I fully believe he will compete with Howard and Bynum as one of the best centers in the NBA.
Hell, Yao might be a good comparison as well. If that guy could stay healthy, the Rockets would be perennial contenders. But he can't. So, while he is there in the playoffs the Rockets look like world beaters. When he's not in there, the Rockets are pretty average. They also cannot replace what he brings to the table. But, they also can't EVER rely on him for consecutive seasons. Could you imagine Yao winning back to back titles? I can't. But, if the Rockets wanted to trade him there is no way that they would EVER get equal value back in return. But they could create a game plan knowing (well of course anyone can get hurt but most stars stay relatively healthy year in and year out) that all of their "pieces" would be there to complete the puzzle.
At what point does a team take less ABSOLUTE BEST in order to get production right now? Every single player in the NBA is more valuable than someone who is injured. Especially when that someone is still learning how to play basketball.
We are not trading Oden. End of discussion.
That being said, there is no reason that Portland would have to trade Oden at all. They are most likely going to add a small piece to the puzzle and try to move forward from there.
The only reason I even thought about this is because
SHAQ SAID THE BLAZERS WERE TRYING TO GET HIM
When I heard that, I thought, "Hmmm, Joel P, LaMarcus, Channing Frye, Oden, and Shaq. How on earth would Oden get the proper time to develop with that crowd down low?"
So, it made me think about who the odd man out would be. Well, I don't think that it would be Aldridge. I know that Shaq wouldn't just sit there on the bench watching Oden playing in front of him. Plus, Joel Przybzylzylza is a decent player who plays some damn good post defense. So, I thought that Portland is already in "go for it" mode right now. If they are, it seems more likely that they would have to make a choice between their 3 potential max contract guys (Roy, Aldridge, Oden) to build around and bringing in Shaq (who would take some minutes away from Oden) seems to me like they made that choice.
But, they didn't bring Shaq in. So, it's all a moot point. I just think that it's telling, and I don't believe that "Blazers Representative" who says they had no interest in Shaq. I don't think that Shaq would bring up a potential trade if it wasn't true. I don't think that he just lied and created a situation where he and Kerr sat down and discussed Raef LaFrentz's contract being moved, etc. The reason Portland doesn't want to admit to it is because in my opinion it's telling the public that they feel that they are ready now and Oden just isn't far enough along to help them AND his injuries make him unreliable moving forward. But, that being said, he'll probably be healthy and look like Patrick Ewing this season so it's a moot point.
All this being said, if my Bulls traded away their entire roster except Derrick Rose for him I would be happy. But, alas, my Bulls aren't as far along as Portland is right now.
Injuries and contract. Those are the only things relevant in this discussion. I am not calling him a bust or saying that he won't be very good. I am just saying that the way the contracts are lining up and how many teams will be left with their pants down after next summer (how many teams are trying to clear space for LeBron James? Unless he clones himself there are going to be quite a few unhappy campers) means that Portland is MOST LIKELY going to take a very big risk on this guy giving him a huge contract and if his injuries persist, he won't be able to contribute or develop enough to help a team that will be competing for a championship in 2 years. Well, he'll be able to help, but probably not enough to justify the amount of money he will cost and command on the free agent market. If Portland didn't get so good, so fast this wouldn't be an issue. I just can't believe how quickly they were able to become so good.
Dude should eb a beast if he can stay healthy. I agree with the guy who said he will be right there with DHoward and ABynum for the best center in the near future.
yes were not trading oden.
WERE NEVER TRADING ODEN...END OF DISCUSSION!
that wouldnty be smart at all...you gotta give oden some time hes still young and hes not fully healed yet..i would watch him getting injuried very closely....but alsolike i said 2 years ago ..should have drafted durant...i just feel/felt he was gonna have a better career
If Durant was on the blazers Roy probably wont be much effective cause he needs the ball in his hands a lot and Durant would probably take like half the team's shot which would probably equal no playoffs.
naw durant would then alter his game untill he mature mores then hed lead the team..overall long run durant will be the better player but with them on the same team roy has the ability to adjust his game to be a second fiddle and not complainm about it..like a scottie pippen they would easily make the playoffs..durant shoots alot now because thats what he is told/has to do