This topic contains 9 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by marcusfizer21marcusfizer21 marcusfizer21 12 years, 11 months ago.

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    butidonthavemoney

    By Tom Haberstroh

     

    WESTERN CONFERENCE

     

    Houston Rockets

     

    Record: 43-39

     

    2011-12 $M: -$25.0

     

    Pop quiz: Which team improved its efficiency the most after the trade deadline? OK, it’s Denver. You probably got that right. But who’s next in line? The Rockets. Houston was on fire to finish the season, led by Kyle Lowry’s sensational point guard play and a much improved defense. In fact, the Rockets finished with a better efficiency differential than three Eastern playoff teams (the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers). And they don’t deserve a playoff spot … why?

     

    But I digress. The Rockets are good and they’re in great shape to continue their upswing. Chuck Hayes will become a free agent this season and it would be a surprise if he didn’t stay put in Houston. The Rockets are in love with what he brings defensively, but his days of being one of the biggest bargains in the game are soon to be over.

     

    With money left over from Yao Ming’s expiring contract, the Rockets should be on the hunt for a starting center to complement Luis Scola on the block, and, if they can afford it, a midlevel small forward like Andrei Kirilenko makes sense here. Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler would be an ideal fit for the defensively-challenged squad. If anything, it would certainly provide some interesting intra-division drama between Dallas owner Mark Cuban and Houston general manager Daryl Morey, two of the most analytics-savvy decision-makers in the game.

     

    Phoenix Suns

     

    Record: 40-42

     

    2011-12 $M: -$13.6

     

    Assuming the Suns decide to shave about $15 million off their 2011-12 payroll and cut bait on Vince Carter before June 30, they will free up some money for Steve Nash’s last hurrah.

     

    Actually, here’s a better idea: cut bait on Nash at the same time and blow it up. Look, there’s no easy way out of this one and if you’re upset about dealing Nash, you can thank Lon Babby’s atrocious 2010 offseason for handcuffing the franchise. The best-case scenario if they keep Nash: a repeat of this past season and the team losing him for nothing when he walks in 2012.

     

    On the other hand, if they exhibit some foresight and deal Nash for younger assets, they could jump-start the inevitable rebuilding process and improve the long-term outlook of the franchise. That’s what a responsible decision-maker would do. Because a year from now, they could be the Toronto Raptors — star-less and full of regret. Time to move on and realize that, yes, there will be life after Nash.

     

    Utah Jazz

     

    Record: 39-43

     

    2011-12 $M: -$19.7

     

    I love Al Jefferson’s craft and effectiveness in the post, and he had a fantastic month of March. That said, he’s one of those zero-sum guys who brings a lot to the table on one end of the floor, but completely erases that value on the other side.

     

    Consider this: Utah’s offense improves 4.3 points per 100 possessions when Jefferson steps on the floor, but the team also hemorrhages another 9.4 points per 100 possession to the other team with him out there. Do the math and it’s clear that the Jazz are filling up a bucket of water with a hole in the bottom.

     

    Now, a lot of that has to do with mistaking him for a center and losing Mehmet Okur for the season. Jefferson’s price tag (two years, $29 million) makes him a misfit on a team in rebuilding mode. If they sign a capable defender at the 5, they are probably better off handing Jefferson’s minutes to their future power forward, Derrick Favors. It’s a tough situation with no easy solution, but it may be best to put him on the block and hope someone bites.

     

    Golden State Warriors

     

    Record: 36-46

     

    2011-12 $M: -$19.7

     

    Yes, Monta Ellis can score with the best of them, but only two hands should be steering the future of this franchise and it has to be those of Stephen Curry. Warriors fans may see eye-popping scoring numbers from Ellis, but I also see a defensively broken backcourt with only one logical out: deal Ellis at his peak value and keep the ball in Curry’s hands.

     

    It’s a simple case of addition by subtraction. When they have both Curry and Ellis on the floor together, the Warriors lose by 1.4 points every 100 possessions. With Curry on the floor and Ellis sitting, the Warriors actually beat their opponents by 2.2 points per game. The Warriors have enough offense to withstand Ellis’ benching and the defense improves dramatically when the undersized Ellis leaves the floor. Here’s another thing to consider — Curry’s stats when Ellis is out of the game? 27.8 points and 6.8 assists per 40 minutes. And he comes at a third of the price.

     

    The Warriors need some depth to round out the roster and could use a legitimate shooting guard, not a scoring point guard masquerading as one. They’ll have some money to spend this offseason and would be wise to sort out the backcourt.

     

    Los Angeles Clippers

     

    Record: 32-50

     

    2011-12 $M: -$8.7

     

    The Clippers stand on a rock-solid foundation. Now it’s time to build around it.

     

    Where should they begin? The small forward position needs a filling like an ill tooth. For all the promise in Al-Farouq Aminu, a big hole exists between Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin in the lineup. It would make a ton of sense for the Clippers to try to engage the Nuggets in a deal for Danilo Gallinari, but it may prove difficult to make a deal work unless they part with Gordon. A package including Eric Bledsoe, Aminu, Chris Kaman’s expiring deal and a future first-rounder may be a good start.

     

    Aside from the small forward position, the Clips need their point guard position to clean up a bit. With Bledsoe coughing it up seemingly every other possession, it’s no wonder the Clippers rank at the bottom of the league in turnover rate. Mo Williams certainly isn’t helping matters there, either.

     

    Sacramento Kings

     

    Record: 24-58

     

    2011-12 $M: -$16.1

     

    The smallest payroll in the league is about to shrink even smaller. The Kings are set to shed about $16 million worth of expiring contracts when Samuel Dalembert and Marquis Daniels head out.

     

    So what do they do with all that cash? They could sign anyone they want, really. But with a young team years away from contending for a playoff spot, it’s important to resist the temptation of spending money just to spend it. The market will be deep with scoring 4s (Zach Randolph and David West, to name a couple) but we saw how the Kings struggled mightily to stop opponents with Carl Landry and DeMarcus Cousins manning the front line. West, in particular, looks a whole lot better when he has a center like Emeka Okafor cleaning up his mistakes. Cousins isn’t there yet.

     

    Outside of Tyreke Evans and Cousins, this roster needs big upgrades everywhere else. The free-agent market for small forwards, another position the Kings need help with, looks pretty thin this offseason, so Derrick Williams of the Arizona Wildcats should be in their sights on draft night.

     

    Minnesota Timberwolves

     

    Record: 17-65

     

    2011-12 $M: -$7.2

     

    Let’s get this straight: the Timberwolves were not a good offense. They’re a classic case of why the points per game statistic gives false hope to fast-paced teams, and why tempo-free statistics are the way to go for evaluation. Judging by points per game, the Timberwolves had a top-10 offense this season. But once we control for their breakneck pace, we find they’re pretty awful at scoring with their opportunities, seventh worst in the league, in fact.

     

    They routinely coughed up the ball, shot at a low percentage and allowed 700 points more than the average team did this season. Kevin Love is the only piece here worth building around, and they desperately need another shot-creator to take the load off Michael Beasley. A rebuilding club like Minnesota should keep an eye on restricted free agent Marcus Thornton, who could prove to be a worthy investment at the right price.

     

    At the end of the day, it’s time for a regime change. The Timberwolves need to be smarter with their draft picks and need a coach who isn’t stubborn about forcing a broken playbook. Big free-agent signings rarely make sense for a team that is miles away from being competitive, so they need to invest heavily in player development and start stocking the system with talent, something they should have started years ago. We have no evidence to suggest that president David Kahn is capable of any of it.

     

    EASTERN CONFERENCE

     

    Milwaukee Bucks

     

    Record: 35-47

     

    2011-12 $M: -$26.3

     

    First and foremost, rest up and get healthy. With Brandon Jennings, Drew Gooden, Ersan Ilyasova and Carlos Delfino all shelved for extended periods, the Bucks led the NBA in games missed thanks to injury (267 as of last week). And that’s before we account for Andrew Bogut’s recent tabling.

     

    The bodily harm likely cost the Bucks a playoff ticket, but don’t let that distract you from their bricktastic season. Milwaukee’s 46.7 effective field goal percentage (weighted for 3s) was a franchise low in the modern era, thanks to Jennings, who put forth a high-volume, low-efficiency campaign that would make even Allen Iverson look good. It didn’t help that Corey Maggette, the team’s big acquisition in the offseason, abandoned the only part of his game that made him valuable: attacking the rim and drawing whistles.

     

    But there’s some sunlight and blue skies to be seen. The Bucks already have an elite defense (fourth-best defensive efficiency in the NBA), and they will lose some weight in the form of Michael Redd’s expiring albatross contract. On the to-do list: get a shot-creator to relieve some pressure off Jennings and keep John Salmons on the perimeter. Restricted free agent Marcus Thornton, who’s averaging 20.8 points for the Sacramento Kings, may be an option.

     

    Charlotte Bobcats

     

    Record: 34-48

     

    2011-12 $M: -$15.9

     

    The reconstruction signs are up, and they won’t be coming down any time soon. Efforts to unload Stephen Jackson’s contract (two years, $19 million remaining) proved unsuccessful at the trade deadline, but the Bobcats have $14 million worth of Joel Przybilla and Morris Peterson coming off the books.

     

    Still, this team is stuck in NBA purgatory. It wasn’t quite good enough for the playoffs but wasn’t quite bad enough to earn more than a handful of pingpong balls in the draft lottery. That’s where Toronto found itself last season, and it only went south.

     

    So where do the Cats need the most help? Truthfully, everywhere except power forward. Kwame Brown’s strong finish this season all but guarantees that he’ll bolt for a bigger deal elsewhere, opening the door for — gasp — DeSagana Diop to step in underneath. Owner Michael Jordan hasn’t gutted a team successfully before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything. Finding takers for Jackson and Diop will not be easy.

     

    Detroit Pistons

     

    Record: 30-52

     

    2011-12 $M: -$17.5

     

    There’s no logical rationale for what Joe Dumars did to this payroll. The Pistons have sunk big-time money into low-impact players, totaling $54 million through 2013-14 to Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. (Side question: Who knew Rip Hamilton’s name would be so appropriate?)

     

    Is there a glimmer of hope? A glimmer may be pushing it. This offseason will mark the end of the Tayshaun Prince era, opening the door for Austin Daye to get more work at the 3. The Pistons do have an anchor in Greg Monroe who can help lead the youth movement, but the problem is the surrounding veterans are stunting this team’s growth. They should be the Indiana Pacers, young and flexible, but instead, the franchise is old and tied up.

     

    The Pistons do not hold any additional first-round picks in the upcoming draft, so they’ll have one shot at a lottery pick in a weak draft. Their first order of business, like the Bobcats’, is to find someone, anyone, who will absorb their aging shooting guard’s contract. If they can do that, they can consider the offseason a rousing success. To be clear, Hamilton isn’t terrible — his contract is.

     

    New Jersey Nets

     

    Record: 24-58

     

    2011-12 $M: -$19.7

     

    Deron Williams holds the key to this franchise. If he opts in and signs an extension, Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov will make sure he is given a key to the city of New York.

     

    Everything hinges on Williams. The Nets dealt away their 2011 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz along with promising big Derrick Favors, and even though they have the Los Angeles Lakers’ first-round pick, it’s essentially a second-rounder given the Lakers’ record. Travis Outlaw isn’t going anywhere until 2016, and they don’t have a high-ceiling youngster outside of Brook Lopez, who bizarrely forgot how to rebound this season.

     

    The Nets will have some money to play around with this summer as the $12 million sum of Dan Gadzuric and Sasha Vujacic will drop off the payroll. The Nets’ priority list: (1) Lock in Williams; (2) consider Outlaw a sunk cost and find a two-way wing; (3) Target a defensively focused power forward such as Chuck Hayes.

     

    Washington Wizards

     

    Record: 23-59

     

    2011-12 $M: -$18.9

     

    The Wizards have young talent, but they need time to let it marinate. The playoff window may not begin until 2013-14, after Rashard Lewis’ colossal contract expires.

     

    The Wizards have some pieces. Obviously, John Wall is a point guard to build around. But the wild card is Andray Blatche. He could be an All-Star, but they desperately need to overhaul his mentality and get him in shape. A simple tweak to his shot selection would do wonders for the Wiz offense — namely, convincing Blatche that he is not Dirk Nowitzki. No more launching four long 2s per game at a 30 percent clip. If he sticks around the basket, he’ll be a star in this league.

     

    The Wizards will spend next season harvesting raw talent, as they have two first-round picks in the draft and likely won’t have much in the way of cap space to sign a big free agent, nor should they at this juncture. JaVale McGee may not have the basketball IQ to make huge strides, but he’s already the best shot-blocker in the NBA. Get Blatche straightened out, let Wall run the show, nab Harrison Barnes and let the rest of the roster incubate.

     

    Toronto Raptors

     

    Record: 22-60

     

    2011-12 $M: -$22.5

     

    Toronto whiffed on the Chris Bosh contingency plan, and it set the franchise back a couple of years. Year 2 will be better.

     

    For one, the Raptors will have some money to spend. Peja Stojakovic and his $14.5 million will be lifted off the payroll with another $5 million once rhino-rebounder Reggie Evans leaves. What the Raptors really need is to target a legitimate center who can slide Andrea Bargnani to the 3 position where he belongs. Tyson Chandler would be the logical choice there if Mavs owner Mark Cuban uncharacteristically passes on overpaying a center. Otherwise, the Raptors can turn to Nene or Marc Gasol if he hits the market.

     

    Elsewhere, the Raptors have to be happy with the development of Ed Davis, the 21-year-old who finished the last 10 games of the season averaging 13.7 points and 9.1 rebounds. But with that frame, he’s not going to do anything to beef up the Raptors’ front line, something they need desperately. David West isn’t the right direction to go in, but they may talk themselves into spending the money on a big man.

     

    Cleveland Cavaliers

     

    Record: 19-63

     

    2011-12 $M: +$0.2

     

    Hoard draft picks and pray they work out. It doesn’t sound like a rock-solid approach, but neither was closing their eyes and hoping LeBron James would return.

     

    The Cavaliers are the only nonplayoff team whose payroll is set to increase next season before free agency even begins. Aside from draft picks, the only valuable asset the Cavaliers have is Anderson Varejao, who was shelved all season thanks to ankle surgery. They could flaunt him to a contender for a package of draft picks and/or prospects, but he may be better suited as the defensive backbone of a rebuilding franchise.

     

    As painful as it sounds, the Cavaliers are probably due for another season in the basement, but at least they will be able to make their own rescue with two picks in the lottery (theirs and the Clippers’ first-rounder). Hope is around the corner.

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  • #521316
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    OhCanada-
    Participant

    What the hell is this guy talking about, Andrea Bargnani at the 3? Sorry but thats just garbage. And lol at spending money on David West when they have all that depth at PF.

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  • #521317
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    butidonthavemoney

    That caught my eye as well. I can’t imagine how Bargnani guarding small forwards is going to make the Raptors a better team.

    But Toronto absolutely should target Chandler, Nene or Gasol. Especially if they can’t score Kanter in the draft.

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  • #521321
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    SwatLakeCity
    Participant

     That guy is crazy. Bargnani should be playing the 4 not the 3. And if anything they should deal Bargnani for Center or a 3. 
    And why doesn’t Utah start Favors at the 5, who might grow an inch over the summer. Then Big AL can play the 4 like he should be, while Millsap can come off the bench and start averaging those double digit rebounding games like last year. 

    I had to laugh when he talked about Brook Lopez, "who bizarrely forgot how to rebound this season." Very true. I think Kris Humphries needs to teach him him how to rebound. Or maybe the Kardashian needs to send Lopez some love too.

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  • #521341
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    WizardofOz
    Participant

    Yeah, Bargs at the 3 is a TERRIBLE idea. The Raptors already tried him out at the 3, and it didn’t turn out so well. He plays like a 3, but he would get MURDERED on defense. That should just move him at PF and get a defensive C to pair with him or bring him off the bench as 6th man.

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  • #521344
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    Raef LaFrentz
    Participant

    Chandler would fit perfectly with the Raptors, and he’s probably the best bet they have of getting a defensive minded Center this offseason.

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  • #521386
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    NashyMing
    Participant

    Horrible article.  This guy has no idea what he’s talking about.  No wonder people calling it BSPN.  I am not even sure why people would pay money to see this garbage.

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  • #521419
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    Toronto16
    Participant

    ESPN sucks. 

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  • #521568
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    BothTeamsPlayedHard
    Participant

    "I love Al Jefferson’s craft and effectiveness in the post, and he had a fantastic month of March. That said, he’s one of those zero-sum guys who brings a lot to the table on one end of the floor, but completely erases that value on the other side."

    "Kevin Love is the only piece here worth building around,"

    Some people apparently don’t watch basketball.

    "The Rockets are good and they’re in great shape to continue their upswing."

    2008- 55-27, 2009- 53-29, 2010- 42-40, 2011 43-39.

    Have fun with that upswing.

    "Where should they begin? The small forward position needs a filling like an ill tooth. For all the promise in Al-Farouq Aminu, a big hole exists between Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin in the lineup. It would make a ton of sense for the Clippers to try to engage the Nuggets in a deal for Danilo Gallinari, but it may prove difficult to make a deal work unless they part with Gordon. A package including Eric Bledsoe, Aminu, Chris Kaman’s expiring deal and a future first-rounder may be a good start."

    Three first round picks and Chris Kaman for Danilo Gallinari. I need that one to sink in to fully appreciate it. No more apparently, Some people clearly don’t watch basketball.

    "Restricted free agent Marcus Thornton, who’s averaging 20.8 points for the Sacramento Kings, may be an option."

    Stupid. Carlos Delfino and Chris Douglas-Roberts provide the same shooting ability, and Delfino will actually guard someone. I know this guy doesn’t watch basketball, but is he aware of the shape of a basketball?

    "JaVale McGee may not have the basketball IQ to make huge strides, but he’s already the best shot-blocker in the NBA. Get Blatche straightened out, let Wall run the show, nab Harrison Barnes and let the rest of the roster incubate."

    So he is aware McGee and Blatche are morons, but doesn’t seem to find any problems with that. If the best shot blocker in the league is on one of the worst defensive teams in the league, then you need to address the fact that blocked shots is an awful stat.

    "Tyson Chandler would be the logical choice there if Mavs owner Mark Cuban uncharacteristically passes on overpaying a center."

    Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Alexis Ajinca, Solomon Alabi, Joey Dorsey, and Tyson Chandler? Really? That is what this guy thinks the awful Raptors need?

    You know what, I give up with this guy.

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  • #521714
    marcusfizer21marcusfizer21
    marcusfizer21
    Participant

    John Hollinger sucks… Zach Lowe of SI.com is gay… and now this Tom Haberstroh … another asinine writing a column for ESPN… these guys are some of the reasons why I hate journalists…

    By the way, I got a felling that Kwame’s staying put in Charlotte…

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