[ReturnofthelemonParticipant]

Now that Bill Self has even voiced concern for the Embiid’s back, could we begin to see his draft stock fall? Not only due to injury, but because Wiggins & Parker have both been playing exceptionally well as of late. Hopefully Embiid’s injury isn’t as serious as it appears, but do you see him dropping out of the #1 spot in the future? 

[HaleParticipant]

Honestly I don’t think Embiid is even the favorite to go #1 anymore, so yeah I’d say his odds of going #1 are going down.

[Scott42444Participant]

 I was the OP for a topic, "Is it time to start questioning Embiid’s draft status due to back injury concerns" or something to that effect about a week ago.  Now that I have heard his diagnosis, I think that he will fall out of the Top 3.  Here’s why:

My sophomore year of high school, while I was playing basketball, I arched my back to grab a rebound that was behind my head.  I heard and felt a slight "pop", but after a quick rush of pain it went away.  Then, over the course of a few months, I realized I couldn’t run correctly.  During varsity baseball tryouts I was slow, couldn’t twist while throwing or hitting, and eventually went to a doctor.  After a bonescan they determined that I had a stress fracture of my L5 vertebrae.  I had to sit out, wearing a "girdle-like back brace" that had metal rods in it, for 6 months.  My orthopedic doctor was also an ortho doctor for the Chicago Bulls.  I actually met Luc Longley in the waiting room before my appointment.  So, I believe that my recovery process is probably similar to what my doctor would have told a 19/20 year old basketball player.  I was cleared to play a couple weeks into our football season and was able to resume full sports activity.  Everything was fine for a couple of years but then at the age of 24 my back was getting worse, and worse, and worse.  Eventually I needed to fuse my L4-L5 vertebrae.  My range of motion is effected and there is some pain here and there.  What are the differences between what happened to me and what happened to Embiid?

I played football, basketball, baseball, and ran track.  I was (am) 6’1" 210 pounds and played strong safety as captain of the football team.  I was able to recover to run an electronically recorded time of 4.39 in the 40 yard dash (after the injury).  But I needed to CONSTANTLY work on my back, neglecting quite a few other muscle groups, in order to get back to that point (actually got stronger and faster, but maybe that’s normal going from 16 to 18).  The amount of effort actually burned me out and I ended up backing out of a D1 football scholarship to become just a normal student.  Before and after my surgery at 26 years old, I couldn’t hold my 1st born child when she was born (which, BTW, makes a man look like a piece of c rap if he makes his wife carry everything after she just gave birth lol).  Embiid is a 7’0" basketball player who is going to be playing an 82-game schedule year in, year out.  I think that he will be able to recover and have some productive years but I personally think that he will have issues in 5 – 7 years.  Back injuries, and I know this sounds cliche, but back injuries are the worst.  Everything you do from twisting, walking, carrying anything, running, to BREATHING hurts when you have a back injury.  You don’t realize it until you actually get injured.  I am an old piece of c rap, so this happened in 1996.  Maybe things have changed since then and recovery time and long term prognosis is better.  Heck, look at how far ACL recovery has come since the mid-90’s.

Also, if you have a Top 3 pick in a DEEP draft, do you take an injury risk?  I wouldn’t.  I don’t think an NBA GM would recover if they take the Darko of the 2014 draft.  Or, and trust me when I say I hate dumping on this guy, but an NBA GM would get fired if he takes the Sam Bowie of the 2014 draft.  

I think he drops out of the Top 3 because of this.  I really do.  This draft is too deep and Embiid was still learning the game.  I don’t like calling him a project because he just "gets it".  Even with limited basketball experience, it just seems to click with him (in a good way, obviously).  But when you see this with young players (and  I can use the Bulls, the team I follow religiously, for an example) like Jimmy Butler.  He worked very hard on his jumper in the offseason and many Bulls fans and those that follow the team felt he would turn the corner into a bonafide 2-way threat of an NBA starter.  Unfortunately, Butler had some nagging injuries early in the season that caused him to miss chunks of time during the season.  Unlike someone who already "had the perfect jumper", Jimmy just taught his muscle memory how to shoot consistently.  When he missed a bunch of time and threw himself out of rhythm, it was hard for him to get it back.  Someone like Steph Curry would be able to get his jumper back after a couple games, since he has already put the time in on his shot in the past.  In the case of Joel Embiid, I think that if he misses 8 months, that puts his progress behind that much more.

Thanks for letting me share.  Please don’t think I was trying to be pathetic and brag about my highschool "stats", I just used them to say that someone can come back from this type of injury and actually become statistically better.  A few years down the road, however, and he can start to have more back problems and they could lead to surgery and a dramatic drop off in physical ability.

 

[Scott42444Participant]

 I was the OP for a topic, "Is it time to start questioning Embiid’s draft status due to back injury concerns" or something to that effect about a week ago.  Now that I have heard his diagnosis, I think that he will fall out of the Top 3.  Here’s why:

My sophomore year of high school, while I was playing basketball, I arched my back to grab a rebound that was behind my head.  I heard and felt a slight "pop", but after a quick rush of pain it went away.  Then, over the course of a few months, I realized I couldn’t run correctly.  During varsity baseball tryouts I was slow, couldn’t twist while throwing or hitting, and eventually went to a doctor.  After a bonescan they determined that I had a stress fracture of my L5 vertebrae.  I had to sit out, wearing a "girdle-like back brace" that had metal rods in it, for 6 months.  My orthopedic doctor was also an ortho doctor for the Chicago Bulls.  I actually met Luc Longley in the waiting room before my appointment.  So, I believe that my recovery process is probably similar to what my doctor would have told a 19/20 year old basketball player.  I was cleared to play a couple weeks into our football season and was able to resume full sports activity.  Everything was fine for a couple of years but then at the age of 24 my back was getting worse, and worse, and worse.  Eventually I needed to fuse my L4-L5 vertebrae.  My range of motion is effected and there is some pain here and there.  What are the differences between what happened to me and what happened to Embiid?

I played football, basketball, baseball, and ran track.  I was (am) 6’1" 210 pounds and played strong safety as captain of the football team.  I was able to recover to run an electronically recorded time of 4.39 in the 40 yard dash (after the injury).  But I needed to CONSTANTLY work on my back, neglecting quite a few other muscle groups, in order to get back to that point (actually got stronger and faster, but maybe that’s normal going from 16 to 18).  The amount of effort actually burned me out and I ended up backing out of a D1 football scholarship to become just a normal student.  Before and after my surgery at 26 years old, I couldn’t hold my 1st born child when she was born (which, BTW, makes a man look like a piece of c rap if he makes his wife carry everything after she just gave birth lol).  Embiid is a 7’0" basketball player who is going to be playing an 82-game schedule year in, year out.  I think that he will be able to recover and have some productive years but I personally think that he will have issues in 5 – 7 years.  Back injuries, and I know this sounds cliche, but back injuries are the worst.  Everything you do from twisting, walking, carrying anything, running, to BREATHING hurts when you have a back injury.  You don’t realize it until you actually get injured.  I am an old piece of c rap, so this happened in 1996.  Maybe things have changed since then and recovery time and long term prognosis is better.  Heck, look at how far ACL recovery has come since the mid-90’s.

Also, if you have a Top 3 pick in a DEEP draft, do you take an injury risk?  I wouldn’t.  I don’t think an NBA GM would recover if they take the Darko of the 2014 draft.  Or, and trust me when I say I hate dumping on this guy, but an NBA GM would get fired if he takes the Sam Bowie of the 2014 draft.  

I think he drops out of the Top 3 because of this.  I really do.  This draft is too deep and Embiid was still learning the game.  I don’t like calling him a project because he just "gets it".  Even with limited basketball experience, it just seems to click with him (in a good way, obviously).  But when you see this with young players (and  I can use the Bulls, the team I follow religiously, for an example) like Jimmy Butler.  He worked very hard on his jumper in the offseason and many Bulls fans and those that follow the team felt he would turn the corner into a bonafide 2-way threat of an NBA starter.  Unfortunately, Butler had some nagging injuries early in the season that caused him to miss chunks of time during the season.  Unlike someone who already "had the perfect jumper", Jimmy just taught his muscle memory how to shoot consistently.  When he missed a bunch of time and threw himself out of rhythm, it was hard for him to get it back.  Someone like Steph Curry would be able to get his jumper back after a couple games, since he has already put the time in on his shot in the past.  In the case of Joel Embiid, I think that if he misses 8 months, that puts his progress behind that much more.

Thanks for letting me share.  Please don’t think I was trying to be pathetic and brag about my highschool "stats", I just used them to say that someone can come back from this type of injury and actually become statistically better.  A few years down the road, however, and he can start to have more back problems and they could lead to surgery and a dramatic drop off in physical ability.

 

[HaleParticipant]

Honestly I don’t think Embiid is even the favorite to go #1 anymore, so yeah I’d say his odds of going #1 are going down.

[PhillytheKid]

what is the value of the center?  Well, to stop Lebron James from attacking the hole at will.  

Without big men you get games like the All-Star Game, no defense.  I don’t think that will fly in the NBA as long as there are 7 footers out there.  Not in playoff NBA basketball.

 

Its still pretty important.  Embiid has been taking some hard falls and that will explain his back.  He’s one of hte most nimble big men in a while.  He has a smooth stroke.  I’d roll the dice and take him #1.  He’s an anchor on defense and very skilled offensively.

Parker – questionable defense.

Wiggins – questionable offense.

Embiid – unquestioned defense and offense.  

[HaleParticipant]

How did you come to the conclusion that Wiggins has questionable offense but Embiid has unquestioned offense and defense?

[PhillytheKid]

have you seen Wiggins cross anyone over?  His game is like Pac-Man bro!   I think he’s super athletic but I think he has to develop a lot.  I dont’ think he is Paul George.  Paul George has all kind of offensive skill.  Wiggins seems so much built and stiff like a track star, I dont know how he’s gonna add fluidity to his game.  That quick spin move doens’t compensate for the lack of a crossover!

Watch Jordan in college as a Freshman.  He was nimble as well as an athletic freak.  I just get worried Wiggins is gonna be a drag racer rather than a porsche. 

[juves4783Participant]

 well, if you are going to compare every prospect to michael jordan; this is probably going to be another bad draft….

c’mon bro.  come back to earth and be realistic.

 

[juves4783Participant]

 well, if you are going to compare every prospect to michael jordan; this is probably going to be another bad draft….

c’mon bro.  come back to earth and be realistic.

 

[King CaluchaParticipant]

Yeah… because the crossover is the ultimate offensive weapon (rolling eyes)…

[PhillytheKid]

okay fine not crossover….the ability to move from the right side of the court to the left side of the court….a handle that allows for lateral movement…..other than an off-balance spin move.

i think he can run and jump and play defense with the best of them for sure.

but he’s an up and down player.  I think he will be able to finish and that will improve (right now he’s a weak finisher).  He’ll improve his shot and his free throws, he can develop that, the potential is there….but I guess I don’t see any lateral movement in his game.  So basically he lacks a mid-range game unless he does the spin move.  

Otherwise he’ll either shoot the three and drive to the lane.  But are those flashes of brilliance?

Potentially you’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Embiid.

 

People want to tlak about the big man, like Oden vs. Durant.  I admit I’m not that big on drafts unless the players really catch my eye.  Durant was one of those guys and I was never impressed by Oden and I did not get the hype.  He’s always been lazy on the court, and when he said he wishes he could be a dentist, that created all kidns of questions.  I think Hibbert would’ve panned out a better center than Oden regardless of Oden’s injuries or not, but thats just me.

Durant was the guaranteed brilliant offensive player with size and game changing ability.  I know the Embiid hype has come donw a lot lately, but you see flashes of offensive brilliance in his game.  Plus he plays at a premium position in the NBA.  You can arguably sign or trade for a Rudy Gay or Kawhi Leonard at the 3.  That big-man table setter is extremely rare.  

 

The playoffs ist he half-court game….MCW, Embiid, and (yes I said it), Lavine, and Noel would be a great 4.  Then you find that three that can score and defend (not that difficult), I like it!  

 

 

 

 

 

[PhillytheKid]

okay fine not crossover….the ability to move from the right side of the court to the left side of the court….a handle that allows for lateral movement…..other than an off-balance spin move.

i think he can run and jump and play defense with the best of them for sure.

but he’s an up and down player.  I think he will be able to finish and that will improve (right now he’s a weak finisher).  He’ll improve his shot and his free throws, he can develop that, the potential is there….but I guess I don’t see any lateral movement in his game.  So basically he lacks a mid-range game unless he does the spin move.  

Otherwise he’ll either shoot the three and drive to the lane.  But are those flashes of brilliance?

Potentially you’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Embiid.

 

People want to tlak about the big man, like Oden vs. Durant.  I admit I’m not that big on drafts unless the players really catch my eye.  Durant was one of those guys and I was never impressed by Oden and I did not get the hype.  He’s always been lazy on the court, and when he said he wishes he could be a dentist, that created all kidns of questions.  I think Hibbert would’ve panned out a better center than Oden regardless of Oden’s injuries or not, but thats just me.

Durant was the guaranteed brilliant offensive player with size and game changing ability.  I know the Embiid hype has come donw a lot lately, but you see flashes of offensive brilliance in his game.  Plus he plays at a premium position in the NBA.  You can arguably sign or trade for a Rudy Gay or Kawhi Leonard at the 3.  That big-man table setter is extremely rare.  

 

The playoffs ist he half-court game….MCW, Embiid, and (yes I said it), Lavine, and Noel would be a great 4.  Then you find that three that can score and defend (not that difficult), I like it!  

 

 

 

 

 

[Land of GrantParticipant]

 Philly’ve already got that 3… Thad Young. He’s a combo. But the playoffs is a half court game, and none of those guys (Lavine’s slightly above avg) are great shooters.

I agree though that bigs are more valuable. The league’s top center for a while (yes, I know Noah’s been better lately) has been Dwight Howard, who doesn’t have a real offensive game. There’s potential for Embiid to be dominant among centers. Or Drummond.

 

[Land of GrantParticipant]

 Philly’ve already got that 3… Thad Young. He’s a combo. But the playoffs is a half court game, and none of those guys (Lavine’s slightly above avg) are great shooters.

I agree though that bigs are more valuable. The league’s top center for a while (yes, I know Noah’s been better lately) has been Dwight Howard, who doesn’t have a real offensive game. There’s potential for Embiid to be dominant among centers. Or Drummond.

 

[juves4783Participant]

you honestly haven’t seen wiggins flash signs of brilliance.  any game that kansas has won on a last play is because of wiggins taking the ball hard to the rim.  even though they lost to ok. st., the only reason they were in overtime was because wiggins took the ball to the rack and then rebounded his miss to tie it.  how about the 41 point game he just had against wvu.  12-15 from the field?  what about the upset of isu mid-season?  29 pts on 10-16 shooting.  no brilliance?  you think he’s a weak finisher.  unbelievable…

so you’ve seen more brilliance in embiid offensively?  a guy that averages 6 shots a game?  a guy that has a single digit scoring game every 3 games?  there’s a little thing called consistency.  how do you judge that from someone that takes 6 shots a game?  how do you compare playing against kamari murphy, ryan spangler, cameron ridley, etc. to dwight howard, andre drummond, tim duncan, etc.?

everyone knew kevin durant was going to be special.  he averaged 26 ppg and 11 rpg as a freshman.  what’s your point?  kevin durants and michael jordans are one of a kinds.  not every draft has those.  let’s jump to reality a little bit here.  comparing every wing to kevin durant/michael jordan is a waste of everyone’s time for argument’s sake.

 

  

 

[juves4783Participant]

you honestly haven’t seen wiggins flash signs of brilliance.  any game that kansas has won on a last play is because of wiggins taking the ball hard to the rim.  even though they lost to ok. st., the only reason they were in overtime was because wiggins took the ball to the rack and then rebounded his miss to tie it.  how about the 41 point game he just had against wvu.  12-15 from the field?  what about the upset of isu mid-season?  29 pts on 10-16 shooting.  no brilliance?  you think he’s a weak finisher.  unbelievable…

so you’ve seen more brilliance in embiid offensively?  a guy that averages 6 shots a game?  a guy that has a single digit scoring game every 3 games?  there’s a little thing called consistency.  how do you judge that from someone that takes 6 shots a game?  how do you compare playing against kamari murphy, ryan spangler, cameron ridley, etc. to dwight howard, andre drummond, tim duncan, etc.?

everyone knew kevin durant was going to be special.  he averaged 26 ppg and 11 rpg as a freshman.  what’s your point?  kevin durants and michael jordans are one of a kinds.  not every draft has those.  let’s jump to reality a little bit here.  comparing every wing to kevin durant/michael jordan is a waste of everyone’s time for argument’s sake.

 

  

 

[King CaluchaParticipant]

Yeah… because the crossover is the ultimate offensive weapon (rolling eyes)…

[PhillytheKid]

have you seen Wiggins cross anyone over?  His game is like Pac-Man bro!   I think he’s super athletic but I think he has to develop a lot.  I dont’ think he is Paul George.  Paul George has all kind of offensive skill.  Wiggins seems so much built and stiff like a track star, I dont know how he’s gonna add fluidity to his game.  That quick spin move doens’t compensate for the lack of a crossover!

Watch Jordan in college as a Freshman.  He was nimble as well as an athletic freak.  I just get worried Wiggins is gonna be a drag racer rather than a porsche. 

[HaleParticipant]

How did you come to the conclusion that Wiggins has questionable offense but Embiid has unquestioned offense and defense?

[juves4783Participant]

college centers vs. nba centers are too different stories.  i would highly disagree that embiid has unquestionable offense.  

[juves4783Participant]

college centers vs. nba centers are too different stories.  i would highly disagree that embiid has unquestionable offense.  

[Scott42444Participant]

 If that center is Joakim Noah he can actually guard LeBron man to man on the perimeter.  God he’s been playing great!

[Scott42444Participant]

 If that center is Joakim Noah he can actually guard LeBron man to man on the perimeter.  God he’s been playing great!

[PhillytheKid]

what is the value of the center?  Well, to stop Lebron James from attacking the hole at will.  

Without big men you get games like the All-Star Game, no defense.  I don’t think that will fly in the NBA as long as there are 7 footers out there.  Not in playoff NBA basketball.

 

Its still pretty important.  Embiid has been taking some hard falls and that will explain his back.  He’s one of hte most nimble big men in a while.  He has a smooth stroke.  I’d roll the dice and take him #1.  He’s an anchor on defense and very skilled offensively.

Parker – questionable defense.

Wiggins – questionable offense.

Embiid – unquestioned defense and offense.  

[juves4783Participant]

i think it’ll come down to how well kansas does in the conference and ncaa tourney.  if embiid comes out and goes beast mode, i think he’ll be a lock for #1.  if he puts up pedestrian numbers, i think he’ll start sliding.  i think in the end it will come down to team needs.

i’m not totally convinced milwaukee will draft him if they get #1 because they’ve invested so much in their frontcourt already.  to me, it would seem like wiggins would make the most sense because i think he can play sg.  him and giannis could team to be a ridiculously athletic wing combo.

orlando is more reasonable because they are pretty solid at wing (afflalo, oladipo, harkless, harris) and a pg is too high if they are in the top 3.  i think vucevic is a quality starter and embiid can learn for a year or two and come off the bench.  once embiid is ready, vucevic would be a great trading chip.

philly is another team that has a bunch of needs.  there is definitely room for frontcourt depth even if they plan to start noel at center.  think noel could easily move to the 4 too but in no scenario could i see noel and embiid starting year 1.  

no matter what, i don’t think he falls out of the top 3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[juves4783Participant]

i think it’ll come down to how well kansas does in the conference and ncaa tourney.  if embiid comes out and goes beast mode, i think he’ll be a lock for #1.  if he puts up pedestrian numbers, i think he’ll start sliding.  i think in the end it will come down to team needs.

i’m not totally convinced milwaukee will draft him if they get #1 because they’ve invested so much in their frontcourt already.  to me, it would seem like wiggins would make the most sense because i think he can play sg.  him and giannis could team to be a ridiculously athletic wing combo.

orlando is more reasonable because they are pretty solid at wing (afflalo, oladipo, harkless, harris) and a pg is too high if they are in the top 3.  i think vucevic is a quality starter and embiid can learn for a year or two and come off the bench.  once embiid is ready, vucevic would be a great trading chip.

philly is another team that has a bunch of needs.  there is definitely room for frontcourt depth even if they plan to start noel at center.  think noel could easily move to the 4 too but in no scenario could i see noel and embiid starting year 1.  

no matter what, i don’t think he falls out of the top 3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[benny15Participant]

 i suppose this isnt a popular oppinon, but i slid him to 4 going to the celtics in my latest mock. without the back red flag, i do think that the bucks would have taken him despite having signed sanders to that extension last off-season and henson showing flashes of brilliance this season. i wasnt really that high on sanders due to how he ended the season last year and how he has performed in this one. i think the bucks would have been happy to get embiid and shop sanders around for a team looking for a shot eraser. 

embiid also slipped past philly due to wiggins being filling the bigger need of a 2 way wingman and the fact that they knew they would sacrifice this season but start competing next year. i dont think they would want their top draft pick to have a risk of skipping the season the way Noel has already.

then i had him slip passed orlando also who i have taking julius randle instead. i dont think the magic ownership group has forgotten all those years of having their franchise talent missing game after game due to health issues. it would lead me to believe that orlando would avoid any talent with health red flags if theres another one who offers simillar upside without the injury risks.

 

 

 

 

 

[benny15Participant]

 i suppose this isnt a popular oppinon, but i slid him to 4 going to the celtics in my latest mock. without the back red flag, i do think that the bucks would have taken him despite having signed sanders to that extension last off-season and henson showing flashes of brilliance this season. i wasnt really that high on sanders due to how he ended the season last year and how he has performed in this one. i think the bucks would have been happy to get embiid and shop sanders around for a team looking for a shot eraser. 

embiid also slipped past philly due to wiggins being filling the bigger need of a 2 way wingman and the fact that they knew they would sacrifice this season but start competing next year. i dont think they would want their top draft pick to have a risk of skipping the season the way Noel has already.

then i had him slip passed orlando also who i have taking julius randle instead. i dont think the magic ownership group has forgotten all those years of having their franchise talent missing game after game due to health issues. it would lead me to believe that orlando would avoid any talent with health red flags if theres another one who offers simillar upside without the injury risks.

 

 

 

 

 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Passing on Wiggins could get a GM fired.  Not sure I would say that about Embiid.  Wiggins has too much hype, and has too much talent to pass on.  Wiggins will sell tickets, jerseys, and air time.  If you take Wiggins number one, nobody will really question you.  The GM can sell hype, sell great dunks, and sell the future, and it will energize the fan base.

Embiid is a big man who could be really, really good, but maybe you don’t take a guy that some fear that he will be the next Greg Oden.  To me, Embiid resembles Olden Polynice.  Ironically, some have compared Wiggins to Scottie Pippen, and Pippen and Polynice were traded for each other on draft night.

Jabari Parker is almost locked into the 3 spot at this point.

I always thought that the top of the draft will be determined by March Madness.  Well, Embiid is out with an injury, and Wiggins blew up on Saturday.  Wiggins is winning March so far… 

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Passing on Wiggins could get a GM fired.  Not sure I would say that about Embiid.  Wiggins has too much hype, and has too much talent to pass on.  Wiggins will sell tickets, jerseys, and air time.  If you take Wiggins number one, nobody will really question you.  The GM can sell hype, sell great dunks, and sell the future, and it will energize the fan base.

Embiid is a big man who could be really, really good, but maybe you don’t take a guy that some fear that he will be the next Greg Oden.  To me, Embiid resembles Olden Polynice.  Ironically, some have compared Wiggins to Scottie Pippen, and Pippen and Polynice were traded for each other on draft night.

Jabari Parker is almost locked into the 3 spot at this point.

I always thought that the top of the draft will be determined by March Madness.  Well, Embiid is out with an injury, and Wiggins blew up on Saturday.  Wiggins is winning March so far… 

[JeffreyhardenParticipant]

coach Self might have been the biggest winner from this back pain in JoJo’s back. If its not a major back thing and JoJo has already said that he might want to come back to get better, who is the odds on favorite for next years NCAA’s college title. Kansas that’s who. Then with a hopefully healthy JoJo becoming next year’s 1st overall draft pick.

Or he could get scared and declare this year and be a top 5 pick to the Kings.

[JeffreyhardenParticipant]

coach Self might have been the biggest winner from this back pain in JoJo’s back. If its not a major back thing and JoJo has already said that he might want to come back to get better, who is the odds on favorite for next years NCAA’s college title. Kansas that’s who. Then with a hopefully healthy JoJo becoming next year’s 1st overall draft pick.

Or he could get scared and declare this year and be a top 5 pick to the Kings.

[For_Never_EverParticipant]

 I still think Embid can go first overall. It really just depends which team and what they’re prefences are.

[For_Never_EverParticipant]

 I still think Embid can go first overall. It really just depends which team and what they’re prefences are.

[Jayhawks2011Participant]

 First move of this highlight tape shows wiggins crossing someone up.  I love embiid, but I think Wiggins needs to go #1.  He is so active and has shown he has the potential on offense.  Parker is great offensively, but he is a poor defender who wont be able to guard the 3 or 4 while Wiggins is a future lockdown 2 spg and maybe 2bpg.  This highlight of his 41 against WV really show his aggresiveness and freak athletism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch

 

[Jayhawks2011Participant]

 First move of this highlight tape shows wiggins crossing someone up.  I love embiid, but I think Wiggins needs to go #1.  He is so active and has shown he has the potential on offense.  Parker is great offensively, but he is a poor defender who wont be able to guard the 3 or 4 while Wiggins is a future lockdown 2 spg and maybe 2bpg.  This highlight of his 41 against WV really show his aggresiveness and freak athletism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch

 

[IknowitallJKParticipant]

You can’t go wrong with anyone of the to 3 guys. I like the fact that they all love to compete. If I was forced to pick a # 1, I would go with Wiggins slightly over Embiid. Wiggins does not have the skill of Paul George right now, but Paul George did not have the skills Wiggins has right now when he was in college let alone as a freshman. I was one person that taught he( PG) had a chance to be really good in the league when he was on that terrible Fresno State team as a sophmore with Graig Smith. I saw his form and his height for a wing and even though he ( PG) didn’t have many moves I taught he had the decent footwork and balance to get there. 

Watch Wiggins’ footwork and balance and not his crossover moves right now. He also has a decent high form on his shot. He has all the tools and from the way he gradually got better over the years, it is reasonable to believe that he will be a very good NBA player. Especiall because the NBA’s wide open style and the way they taylor the rules for athletic guys like him. Did LBJ have many side to side moves early on in his career ( not comapring Wiggins to LBJ)? Along with his shot LBJ’s lack of dribble moves prevented him from killing the Spurs in his Cleavland years. 

 

[IknowitallJKParticipant]

You can’t go wrong with anyone of the to 3 guys. I like the fact that they all love to compete. If I was forced to pick a # 1, I would go with Wiggins slightly over Embiid. Wiggins does not have the skill of Paul George right now, but Paul George did not have the skills Wiggins has right now when he was in college let alone as a freshman. I was one person that taught he( PG) had a chance to be really good in the league when he was on that terrible Fresno State team as a sophmore with Graig Smith. I saw his form and his height for a wing and even though he ( PG) didn’t have many moves I taught he had the decent footwork and balance to get there. 

Watch Wiggins’ footwork and balance and not his crossover moves right now. He also has a decent high form on his shot. He has all the tools and from the way he gradually got better over the years, it is reasonable to believe that he will be a very good NBA player. Especiall because the NBA’s wide open style and the way they taylor the rules for athletic guys like him. Did LBJ have many side to side moves early on in his career ( not comapring Wiggins to LBJ)? Along with his shot LBJ’s lack of dribble moves prevented him from killing the Spurs in his Cleavland years. 

 

[GrandmamaParticipant]

 Team doctors will look him over at the combine, so we will know then if his stock may fall or not.  If he checks out OK, I think he’ll still go #1.  Wiggins and Parker are playing well though.  If Embiid does fall, it won’t be past 3.  Barring something major, I think these three are locked in as the top 3 picks.

[GrandmamaParticipant]

 Team doctors will look him over at the combine, so we will know then if his stock may fall or not.  If he checks out OK, I think he’ll still go #1.  Wiggins and Parker are playing well though.  If Embiid does fall, it won’t be past 3.  Barring something major, I think these three are locked in as the top 3 picks.

[King CaluchaParticipant]

You’re right… unless Embiid goes Sam Bowie in the combine. I guess sports medicine has advanced so much that it shouldn’t happen anymore…

[King CaluchaParticipant]

You’re right… unless Embiid goes Sam Bowie in the combine. I guess sports medicine has advanced so much that it shouldn’t happen anymore…

[Ghost01Participant]

 I think it is important to note that there are probably very varied opinions throughout the league on all of these top prospects, because there isn’t a true concensus number 1.

Just because Chad Ford talked to scouts who think Embiid is going number 1, doesn’t mean the majority of teams were even favoring him at the height of his value. 

Organizations as a whole, usually have 3-4 guys (The Coach, the owner, the GM and/or VP) who are thuroughly involved in drafting a player. None of them are scouts. 

Embiid did have a nice stretch this season, but his back issues HAVE to be a concern. A big man that starts having back problems isn’t a good sign, especially because we have seen 7 footers bust before.

Embiid never had a stretch where he looked completely unstoppable. He looks like a very nice defensive big man. But this idea that offensively he had potential to be Hakeem was just insane. Making a nice move from time to time is completely different from dominating a game. What is his scoring average this year? 11 PPG?

I agree completely with the OP. The odds of Embiid doing more to improve his stock the rest of the way than Wiggins and Parker seems absurd at this point. With those two guys, your worst case scenarios are a very nice athletic/defensive wing who can score 15+ PPG, and a scorer who should average about 20+ PPG, and is a decent rebounder. I really don’t see anyway Wiggins and Parker respecitively are worse than that. Embiid? It could be a question mark. It could be injury riddled. Now let’s flip it to the other side, and look at "upside". Let’s say Wiggins stops drifting through games, learns how to make dribble moves a bit better. Now he’s at least Paul George. Let’s say Parker really expands his offensive repituare, now he’s one of the 2-3 best scorers in the league. Is the upside of Embiid really that much higher than that? When is the last time a team lead by a center won an NBA title? Shaq in 02? Unless you want to count Duncan (which is fine), the league has progressed to a different style where the dominant players play on the wing.

Does anyone really think Embiid is going to be a 25+PPG, 14RPG center? I just don’t see it. A really, really nice asset, and the potential to be a better Roy Hibbert. But I think right now you would have to say Parker and Wiggins are the top 2. 

[Ghost01Participant]

 I think it is important to note that there are probably very varied opinions throughout the league on all of these top prospects, because there isn’t a true concensus number 1.

Just because Chad Ford talked to scouts who think Embiid is going number 1, doesn’t mean the majority of teams were even favoring him at the height of his value. 

Organizations as a whole, usually have 3-4 guys (The Coach, the owner, the GM and/or VP) who are thuroughly involved in drafting a player. None of them are scouts. 

Embiid did have a nice stretch this season, but his back issues HAVE to be a concern. A big man that starts having back problems isn’t a good sign, especially because we have seen 7 footers bust before.

Embiid never had a stretch where he looked completely unstoppable. He looks like a very nice defensive big man. But this idea that offensively he had potential to be Hakeem was just insane. Making a nice move from time to time is completely different from dominating a game. What is his scoring average this year? 11 PPG?

I agree completely with the OP. The odds of Embiid doing more to improve his stock the rest of the way than Wiggins and Parker seems absurd at this point. With those two guys, your worst case scenarios are a very nice athletic/defensive wing who can score 15+ PPG, and a scorer who should average about 20+ PPG, and is a decent rebounder. I really don’t see anyway Wiggins and Parker respecitively are worse than that. Embiid? It could be a question mark. It could be injury riddled. Now let’s flip it to the other side, and look at "upside". Let’s say Wiggins stops drifting through games, learns how to make dribble moves a bit better. Now he’s at least Paul George. Let’s say Parker really expands his offensive repituare, now he’s one of the 2-3 best scorers in the league. Is the upside of Embiid really that much higher than that? When is the last time a team lead by a center won an NBA title? Shaq in 02? Unless you want to count Duncan (which is fine), the league has progressed to a different style where the dominant players play on the wing.

Does anyone really think Embiid is going to be a 25+PPG, 14RPG center? I just don’t see it. A really, really nice asset, and the potential to be a better Roy Hibbert. But I think right now you would have to say Parker and Wiggins are the top 2. 

[HaleParticipant]

Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will likely miss the Big 12 tourney and the opening weekend of the NCAA tourney according to Andy Katz’s twitter. I think the back problem is a real issue when the guy only plays 20 mpg.

 

[Lafferty DanielParticipant]

 You beat me to it.  +1 for you.  -1 for the site’s word verification.  

[HaleParticipant]

Yeah haha that’s exact reason I didn’t post a link. I hate the word verification. 

[HaleParticipant]

Yeah haha that’s exact reason I didn’t post a link. I hate the word verification. 

[Lafferty DanielParticipant]

 You beat me to it.  +1 for you.  -1 for the site’s word verification.  

[HaleParticipant]

Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and will likely miss the Big 12 tourney and the opening weekend of the NCAA tourney according to Andy Katz’s twitter. I think the back problem is a real issue when the guy only plays 20 mpg.

 

[Lafferty DanielParticipant]

He’s going to miss the Big 12 tournament and it’s not looking good for the first round of the NCAA tourney.  What a bummer.   

sports.yahoo.com/news/kansas-center-joel-embiid-could-miss-big-12-tourney–but-expected-to-return-for-ncaa-tournament-153452071.html

 

[Lafferty DanielParticipant]

He’s going to miss the Big 12 tournament and it’s not looking good for the first round of the NCAA tourney.  What a bummer.   

sports.yahoo.com/news/kansas-center-joel-embiid-could-miss-big-12-tourney–but-expected-to-return-for-ncaa-tournament-153452071.html

 

[kobyzParticipant]

to me Parker should be the clear cut the number 1 pick even without Embiid’s back injury!!

[kobyzParticipant]

to me Parker should be the clear cut the number 1 pick even without Embiid’s back injury!!

[TarkParticipant]

 Well….at least Portland cant win the lottery, so maybe Embid will be alright. Seriously, this is a big big problem for every GM that’s going to have to weigh the odds on Embid’s future. So many injury problems with 7 footers in recent years. 

I was living in Portland when they took Oden, and I remember on local radio there were rumbling that within the Trailblazer org. they were divided on Oden vs Durant. Not sure if that was due to some fearing for Oden’s future health or if they were just that high on Durant, but you can be sure if anyone with any credibility had foreseen what was to come with Oden there’s no way they would have picked him. As a hoop fan, I just hope Embid turns out allright, but I sure would have a hard time picking a 7 footer with back problems at the top of the draft myself. :He might drop to 3 or lower no matter what the doctors say at draft time. #paranoia

[TarkParticipant]

 Well….at least Portland cant win the lottery, so maybe Embid will be alright. Seriously, this is a big big problem for every GM that’s going to have to weigh the odds on Embid’s future. So many injury problems with 7 footers in recent years. 

I was living in Portland when they took Oden, and I remember on local radio there were rumbling that within the Trailblazer org. they were divided on Oden vs Durant. Not sure if that was due to some fearing for Oden’s future health or if they were just that high on Durant, but you can be sure if anyone with any credibility had foreseen what was to come with Oden there’s no way they would have picked him. As a hoop fan, I just hope Embid turns out allright, but I sure would have a hard time picking a 7 footer with back problems at the top of the draft myself. :He might drop to 3 or lower no matter what the doctors say at draft time. #paranoia

[JoeWolf1]

Embiid still may go #1. His back is going to be looked at heavily in the combine, and if it looks good then I think a team won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. To me this is still the case of Bill Self both looking long term for Embiid. He doesn’t want to rush Joel back or hinder his future, so he’s seeking out specialists and playing it safe. Don’t get me wrong, it is a factor, but I’m going to play wait and see before I project a slide in his stock or throw around Sam Bowie or Greg Oden references.

If Embiid is expected to make a full recovery after sitting out a month, I don’t think it’s as big a deal as Noel’s knee last year, but there’s a lot of heat on a team picking #1, so in my opinion, it’s still going to be a factor, but it goes both ways. If Joel comes back in the NCAA tournament and looks like he did when he came back after sitting out the TCU game earlier in the season ( 14 ppg 10.25 rpg 2.75 bpg 1.75 spg on 71/76 his last 4 games of the year ), then I think the people crying "Sam Bowie” won’t be quite as loud.

[JoeWolf1]

Embiid still may go #1. His back is going to be looked at heavily in the combine, and if it looks good then I think a team won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. To me this is still the case of Bill Self both looking long term for Embiid. He doesn’t want to rush Joel back or hinder his future, so he’s seeking out specialists and playing it safe. Don’t get me wrong, it is a factor, but I’m going to play wait and see before I project a slide in his stock or throw around Sam Bowie or Greg Oden references.

If Embiid is expected to make a full recovery after sitting out a month, I don’t think it’s as big a deal as Noel’s knee last year, but there’s a lot of heat on a team picking #1, so in my opinion, it’s still going to be a factor, but it goes both ways. If Joel comes back in the NCAA tournament and looks like he did when he came back after sitting out the TCU game earlier in the season ( 14 ppg 10.25 rpg 2.75 bpg 1.75 spg on 71/76 his last 4 games of the year ), then I think the people crying "Sam Bowie” won’t be quite as loud.

[Author]

Posts