Drafting for size
As a few of you know I personally am not a huge fan of "Drafting for size". Too many times team go for a big guy rather than just selecting the best player possible.
Here are some examples, I have tried to take everything into consideration eg. draft quality, who was picked shortly after or before.
86- Brad Daugherty
87- Dave Robinson
88- Rik Smits, Rony Seikaly
91 - Dikimbe Mutombo
92- Shaq, Alonzo
95-Rasheed Wallace, Bryant Reeves
97- Tim Duncan
02- Yao Ming, Nene, Amare
03 - Kaman
04 Dwight Howard
05- Bogut, Bynum
07- Horford, Noah
08 - Brook Lopez
84- Mel Turpin - was taken one spot ahead of Alvin Robertson
85- Benoit Benjamin, Joe Kleine, Jon Konkak- all taken ahead of Mullin, Schrempf & Oakley
86- William Bedford - picks two spots before Ron Harper
87- Olden Polynice - following 3 picks: Derrick Mckey, Reggie Miller and Horace Grant
88- Tim Perry - picked just before Rex Chapman and Willie Anderson
89- Pervis Ellison - picked before Sean Elliott and Glen Rice
Stacey King - picked before Pooh Richardson, Nick Anderson, Tim Hardaway, Shawn Kemp, BJ Armstrong
96-Lorenzen Wright - in a good draft he was picked just before Kerry Kittles, Nash, Kobe, Peja, Jermain Oneal, Big Z
93- Shawn bradley - following picks Penny, Mashburn, JR Rider
94- Sharone Wright, Eric Montross - picked before Eddie Jones & Jalen Rose
98- Candyman, LaFrentz, - both picked ahead of Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk, J-Will, Paul Pierce
01-Kwame Brown, Eddie Curry, Diop - taken ahead of Joe Johnson, troy Murphy, Richard Jefferson, Zac Randolph, Gerald Wallace
02- Nikoloz Tskitishvili
03 - Darko
04- Rafael Araujo
06 - Bargs, Patrick OBryant, Mouhamed Sene
07- Oden - even if healthy he still would not be as valuable as Durant
09 - Thabeet
On the fence
Felton Spencer, Luke Longley, Dampier, whole of 2000 because it sucked so much, Tyson Chandler (2nd) pick, Okafor (2nd) pick, Hawes.
21 times the team selecting a big has been correct.
26 times they haven't been.
Thoughts / Comments
Most of the time those bigs were considered the BPA though.
he vs Pau (3rd) is a toss up right now. Off vs Def. Both have won ships. Either or.
Isn't Dirk 6'11"+. Garnett 6'12".
6ft12 = 7ft
Not really, Pau has been a franchise player since his rookie year while chandler has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career before comin to Dallas.
Pau Gasol is not a franchise player. At his best, he's a high-level second option.
Most GM's consider it to be "safer". I mean it really is Hit or Miss.
I forgot to add I only did the first 10 picks
Tyson Chandler was considered somewhat of a bust before he came to Dallas, won a championship and made a couple of all-defensive teams....
High expectations are that from a second overall pick. He had Pau, JRich and Joe Johnson selected after him
Early on in his career with the Bulls, he was going up against prime Shaqs and Duncans of the league. Even when playing with Paul in New Orleans Chandler was considered an average center... made effective by Paul. Chandler then moved on to Charlotte where his precieved value was even less... so much so that he recieved the Zbo treatment and was being shopped for expiring contracts to the likes of OKC where he failed his physical because of his toe (OKC rescinded the deal) and Toronto among others. Toronto thought they had a deal with Cha at one point but missed out.
Then it was off to Dallas where Chandler changed the defensive culture of the entire team...by encouraging solid team and help defense. After winning the championship while playing a safe (but excellent) brand of man to man D He signed with NYK for another gaudy contract I never thought he'd see again.
I initially still didn't believe he was worth the money but I've become a convert. Tysons D is great for the center position, solid but not flashy which allows him to stay out of foul trouble and play big minutes. He doesn't always get the stats but things like the "tap out" rebound became popular. He shoots free throws allowing him to be on the court late in games. He doesn't take many shots but he make the ones he does take count. He NEVER complains about a "lack of touches" which is a relief if your a PG and for team chemistry. I'm sure Chandler could take 15 shots a game but he realizes what many players don't... he shouldn't be taking 15 shots a game. He knows his role and sticks to what he does best. This makes him an effective player with any 4 guys in the league.
Its been an interesting career.
Unfortunately, big men are more prone to injury than other positions. It's easy to look at things in hind sight, but keep in mind that many of these guys had very bright futures that were taken down by injuries rather than underachievement.
Pervis Ellison - By Ellison's 3rd year in the league he was a 20p/11r/3a while averaging 2.7 blocks to go with. He could never stay healthy, which was why he is known as one of the worst #1 pick busts, not because he wasn't good.
Raef LaFrentz - LaFrentz was in many ways a poor man's Tim Duncan, and I think would have been a much more productive player if he knees wouldn't have failed him. He was averaging 13.8 ppg 7.6 rpg 1.4 blocks during his rookie season when he went down. He salvaged a pretty good career because he was so skilled, but had he not been injured, I feel he would have been a 18 or 19 ppg player who pulled down 9 rebounds and could stretch the floor out to the 3 point line, in his prime.
Greg Oden - People are drooling over Drummond now, but Oden was even better as a rookie and he could hit a free throw at a 70% clip. In his last 15 games in the league, Greg Oden was averaging 13.2 ppg 8.4 rpg 2.5 bpg on 60% shooting from the feild 75% from the line and in only 24 mpg. His last full game in the NBA he hauled in 20 rebounds ( 11 offensive ) to go with 13 points and 4 blocks as a 21 year old center for a playoff team.
These 3 guys in particular, were not examples of inferior players being drafted because of size, injuries just caught up to them.
"07- Oden - even if healthy he still would not be as valuable as Durant"
seriously? Oden was a beast coming out of College while Durant was a lanky shooter!, who wouldn't draft Oden over Durant on that time! Oden with his Upside showed more potential than Durant, but was sidelined by injuries, he was even compared to bill russell! its Bill Russell!
Oden was the better pick at the time. Even if oden was able to reach his potential, looking back now I would take Durant any day because durant is consistant, he shoots a high percentage and is clutch so he can take the last shot of the game. At best oden would have been a 20 12 and 2.5 blks guy and he would have shot 70% from the line absolute best case scenerio. It is hard to feed a big man at the end of games and now that the game is played at a faster tempo and there is a lot more quickness in it. He would have been dominant, but I would rather have an elite wing player than an elite bigman, just because the ball is in their hands more.