[DolanCareParticipant]

The NBA draft is an undeniable crapshoot. Every draftnik has that prospect that they were right about, an instance when you were smarter than the GMs. But no matter how gifted of a talent-evaluator you think you are, there have been plenty of times that you were dead wrong. Whether you feel in love with Wesley Johnson’s dismissed a sub-6 foot Ty Lawson or saw a Dikembe Mutombo as a worst-case scenario for Hasheem Thabeet’s career. We’ve all falling in love with a dud, or skirted a stud. 

In this post I’d like use Derrick Williams as a case study in how to draft. What I like about Derrick Williams for this purpose is the fact that the ‘bust’ label is not fully applicable. He started off playing behind Kevin Love, but has played well enough with the Kings to indicate that he could easily be in the league for another 7-10 years. That said, he simply hasn’t met expectations despite being considered a ‘safe’ prospect with the possibility to of gone number one overall. He current plays on a team that is desperate for a stretch four, yet has been unable to claim the PF position from the troop of power forwards from the roster. Even if Rudy Gay plays minutes at the 4, Williams has had several chances to show his worth as the number two pick. He’s a good player, but a selection the Timberwolves definitely wished they could have back.

When looking at the numbers, it is clear that he had a dominant college career. William’s 32.8 PER in his sophomore year is a shade below Damian Lillard’s (34 PER) senior year, and the exact same as Doug McDermott for his senior year (32.8 PER as well). PER is hardly an iron-clad stat, but it does give a sense of the type of year a player has. Derrick Williams was a featured offensive player in the PAC-12, which is more compeititve than the Big Sky and Big East in 2013, and produced at a high level.

Should the case of Derrick Williams scare GMs picking from the current stock of NCAA top performers? The simple point is that, what Derrick Williams exceled at in college did not translate to the NBA. Derrick Williams remains a solid threat in the open floor, as expected, what has not translated to the pros have been his shot and rebounding….

Shooting:

I have yet to hear an explaination in why Derrick Williams has been such a mediocre shooter in the NBA.  While most scouts knew that his insane .568% 3-pt percentage was hardly sustainable, it was assumed that he would be a more consistent outside threat than what we see today, 314% for Sacramento this year. I do not claim to be a Shot-Doctor, but Sport Science made a convincing argument that he has sound form. And Williams seems to think so as well as he takes a ton of jump shots, 62% of his field-goal attempts are classified as jumpers. He’s a stretch four with an inconsistent shot, something that Draymond Green can get away with because of the other skills he brings.  

Players like D’Angelo Russell, Mario Hezonja and Devin Booker are top-tier shooters. But can we trust their shooting will translate when Williams’s significant drop-off in shooting efficiency?

Rebounding:

It’s hard to grab a lot of rebounds when you play on the perimeter, but similar to Derrick’s shot, the drop-off from college to NBA is inexcusable. Anyone who watches Williams play can attest that he has the ability to rebound, but has absolutely zero consistency in this department. In the end of day, coaches and even Williams himself, point to ‘a lack of focus’ when it comes to rebounding. Rebounding is very much an effort-based stat since one is expected to get into position even if the ball is going out of your area. But for a professional basketball player, especially one that plays the four, rebounding should be instinctual. It seemed to be instinctual when Williams was pulling down 8 boards a game with Arizona. Scouts say that rebounding translates well in to the pros, and to be fair it usually does, but why not for Derrick Williams. More importantly, how can we identify this inconsistency in future draft picks? If effort and focus are indeed the main indicators, then can we expect Montrezl Harrell to be a better NBA rebounder than Jahlil Okafor? 

The ‘Jack of Trades, Master of None’ Label

I don’t think anyone confused Derrick Williams as a glue-guy on draft day. But a common line in Derrick Williams analysis is that he didn’t have that one go-to skill- nothing to hang his hat on in the NBA, so to speak. While this line of criticism is often correct, there are many prospects who end up blossoming in the NBA despite not having one defined skill. The best example for this inconsistency is the best player from the Derrick Williams draft: Kawhi Leonard.

 Kawhi Leonard was a long, high energy athlete who had great defensive potential and signs of a solid mid-range game. That was Kawhi the Prospect: an athlete with improving but unrefined ball skills. Meanwhile, Derrick Williams was showcasing superior shooting, ball handling and general basketball instincts at the same age. Hence the high draft selection, in spite of a dissapointing 4 year career start.

 It is easy thing to point to the fact that Kawhi went to the best organization in sports, Spurs, while Williams went to arguably the worst, the Kahn-led Timberwolves. But if that’s the case, then why aren’t RC Buford and the other genius GMs trying to get Derrick Williams. He’s a free agent now and has hardly been ‘untouchable’ in terms of trading. The truth is, Williams is a sub-par defender who has trouble find baskets unless it’s on the break. Could Williams improve in a different situation? Absolutely! A fast-pace offense where he’ll be able to run will almost certain pad his scoring stats. That doesn’t negate the reality that Williams was over drafted and overrated. Furthermore, this wasn’t Chris Grant reaching for Anthony Bennett off of a gut-instinct. Derrick Williams was nearly universally regarded as a top 3 pick, with many seeing him as the number one overall.

To the forum:

Was Derrick Williams a fluke? Or can we learn anything from his current struggles vs. his pre-draft hype?  

[DolanCareParticipant]

 Sorry for how this came out. The spam filter was triggered until now. Just ignore the coding jargon 

[DolanCareParticipant]

 Sorry for how this came out. The spam filter was triggered until now. Just ignore the coding jargon 

[LovebugParticipant]

Lack of motor. As a Kings fan I just don’t see a guy who wants to play. He’s someone that got by on his skill level to the NBA, but when you get here the players with desire to hone their craft are the ones that succeed. He just doesn’t seem motivated and inspired, like he is already fine with the money he has earned from his rookie contract, and I guess its hard for scouts to cuss this out at the amateur level, but do a background check on the personalities of kids before you draft them, and make sure they have work ethic

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 Tyrus Thomas squeezed by us in the same fashion, which is why most of us will not be fooled by Derrick Williams this go-around.

[Lotto StudParticipant]

 Tyrus Thomas squeezed by us in the same fashion, which is why most of us will not be fooled by Derrick Williams this go-around.

[LovebugParticipant]

Lack of motor. As a Kings fan I just don’t see a guy who wants to play. He’s someone that got by on his skill level to the NBA, but when you get here the players with desire to hone their craft are the ones that succeed. He just doesn’t seem motivated and inspired, like he is already fine with the money he has earned from his rookie contract, and I guess its hard for scouts to cuss this out at the amateur level, but do a background check on the personalities of kids before you draft them, and make sure they have work ethic

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 I mean ultimately you’re trying to guess how humans will act, develop, react, ect with other humans, it’s increadidbly volitile. It is a crapshoot like you said.

The comparisons you make for Williams vs Leonard, I think ultimately the general consensus was wrong in their scouting, or over looked Leonard’s toughness and competitiveness, which is something you can’t truly measure obviously. Which is why it shocks me I see so many experts and people agree and not have any really drastically different rankings, it’s all the same. I mean how often do we see guys draft in the top 10 and suck while guys go late and have good careers.

Also, something you can’t really know until later is how guys react to being drafted? I’m sure for a lot of guys they feel like they’ve made it once they’re drafted, and their motivation to continue to work hard sorta disappears, I feel like this was the case with Williams, he just doesn’t seem to play hard or with focus. Leonard was the opposite and the Spurs helped, but he was clearly driven and wasn’t just content to make it to the NBA, he knew this was just the start.

That is probably the hardest thing to figure out, which is what I think why so many of these guys flop.

[DolanCareParticipant]

It is futile indeed. In general though,the work ethic argument is hard to disgree with mainly because I have no idea how hard they practice or train. What I will say though, is Derrick Williams is no Fab Melo- he’s not someone who has extraordinary athleticism and can get by on cruise control. He had to work at some level to develop his ball skills, and he was soooo good at Arizona. I probably don’t read enough Sacramento bloggers to know what he’s like in the club house- it is suprising to hear everyone label him a slacker though. 

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 I think that’s where the difference of college and NBA come in. College for a guy his size and that athletic, you can get by with average skill. In the NBA, it’s not going to take you far and when you’re sorta content and not driven you’re just a marginal player at best.

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 I think that’s where the difference of college and NBA come in. College for a guy his size and that athletic, you can get by with average skill. In the NBA, it’s not going to take you far and when you’re sorta content and not driven you’re just a marginal player at best.

[DolanCareParticipant]

It is futile indeed. In general though,the work ethic argument is hard to disgree with mainly because I have no idea how hard they practice or train. What I will say though, is Derrick Williams is no Fab Melo- he’s not someone who has extraordinary athleticism and can get by on cruise control. He had to work at some level to develop his ball skills, and he was soooo good at Arizona. I probably don’t read enough Sacramento bloggers to know what he’s like in the club house- it is suprising to hear everyone label him a slacker though. 

[Mad MaxParticipant]

 I mean ultimately you’re trying to guess how humans will act, develop, react, ect with other humans, it’s increadidbly volitile. It is a crapshoot like you said.

The comparisons you make for Williams vs Leonard, I think ultimately the general consensus was wrong in their scouting, or over looked Leonard’s toughness and competitiveness, which is something you can’t truly measure obviously. Which is why it shocks me I see so many experts and people agree and not have any really drastically different rankings, it’s all the same. I mean how often do we see guys draft in the top 10 and suck while guys go late and have good careers.

Also, something you can’t really know until later is how guys react to being drafted? I’m sure for a lot of guys they feel like they’ve made it once they’re drafted, and their motivation to continue to work hard sorta disappears, I feel like this was the case with Williams, he just doesn’t seem to play hard or with focus. Leonard was the opposite and the Spurs helped, but he was clearly driven and wasn’t just content to make it to the NBA, he knew this was just the start.

That is probably the hardest thing to figure out, which is what I think why so many of these guys flop.

[Malik-UniversalParticipant]

like mad max said.. how’s his work ethic… was he just pleased with being drafted then lost focus? i wouldn’t be shocked if thats the case… he has plenty of ability… dont like him trying to be a stretch 4.. he isnt the tallest but hes got the athleticism and strength im sure to play inside…and it’s not like he has t-rex arms either.. to me hes a natural power forward.. just dont like the idea of him playing small forward..  his game will expand if he can improve his shooting though 

[Malik-UniversalParticipant]

like mad max said.. how’s his work ethic… was he just pleased with being drafted then lost focus? i wouldn’t be shocked if thats the case… he has plenty of ability… dont like him trying to be a stretch 4.. he isnt the tallest but hes got the athleticism and strength im sure to play inside…and it’s not like he has t-rex arms either.. to me hes a natural power forward.. just dont like the idea of him playing small forward..  his game will expand if he can improve his shooting though 

[Mr. HookShotParticipant]

Also the situation in which they end up; the winning mood of a good team with a good coaching staff generally rubs off on young players (like Leonard at the Spurs). That is why having a few veterans in your team who learn young guys some profesionalism is a critical part in developing a good team, and is exactly the reason why the Wolves (would) benefit from having Garnett for a one or two more years. 

[Mr. HookShotParticipant]

Also the situation in which they end up; the winning mood of a good team with a good coaching staff generally rubs off on young players (like Leonard at the Spurs). That is why having a few veterans in your team who learn young guys some profesionalism is a critical part in developing a good team, and is exactly the reason why the Wolves (would) benefit from having Garnett for a one or two more years. 

[Author]

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