In light of D-Rose's 2nd knee injury, as well as Russell Westbrook's injury in last years playoffs do you think teams will be a little more cautious about drafting a "super athletic" point guards so high? Or is the ceiling on these guys worth the risk.
No. It would be the biggest mistake in the world to pass on a super talented player with no injury history, because you think he might get injured, based off nothing but what happened to another player. A past injury history, sure, that's a legit concern, but passing on a guy with no past injury history, because of hypotheticals isn't worth it.
Injuries these guys have had actually don't have anything to do with their athleticism. There's been so many unathletic guys that suffered many injuries and other freak athletes that never had big injury problems. Also, injuries destroyed Penny Hardaway and Grant Hill's careers, but that didn't stop Nba teams drafting 6'6"-6'8" wings with great athleticism and fluidity.
It may make teams more cautios when it comes to draft players with a known history of injuries issues, but it's not like it's something new, many players slide in the draft only because of history of frequent injuries
Yes, I do think teams will think twice about drafting "super athletic" point guards. For one, the injury risk is huge. Just like with running quarterbacks in the NFL. They don't hold up that well, or at least that is the perception.
Another thing, if these "super athletic" point guards get hurt, what do they have left? Is there skill set elite enough to keep them playing at a high level. With a guy like Derrick Rose, what if 80% of his game was freakish athleticism?
I think you still go after point guards with size (Westbrook and Rose size, or Penny), but you get a guy with a more developed skill set. What about Marcus Smart? A very good player with great size for a point guard, and a good athlete, but not a FREAKISH athlete. His game might hold up very well.
If I were drafting guys based on durability, I would look at Marcus Smart who could be a guy who could still make an all-star team after his athletic skills began to turn down. He looks like a guy who can still play at a high level for 10 to 12 years into a career.
Among the other top picks, Julius Randle looks like a guy who uses strength, fundamentals, and size to get his points. He isn't going to be an explosive Amare type, more like a Zach Randolph. That should help his game over the long run.
Comparing the top two guys now, Wiggins and Parker, it looks like Parker's game could hold up better since he is more of a skills guy and a shooter. He also has solid size for a 3, at around 6'8 and he can also play some stretch four as he gets older.
Wiggins, on the other hand, is more of a freakish athlete than a highly skilled wing. Wiggins can score but he is not a pure shooter. He isn't an elite ball handler at this point either, nor does he have ELITE small forward size. He projects more as a Kobe/Jordan type of player on the wing, which would lend itself to playing at the 2. His game is based on athleticism and finesse. He has great hops, a very fluid game, and an ELITE second jump. If he loses his athleticism he could be in trouble. I haven't watched him too much, but I really haven't seen a super explosive first step. It might have been great for a high school kid, but there are lots of good first steps in the pros. Wiggins' effectiveness may depend on him being a PEAK ATHLETE. If the rest of his game doesn't develop then he could be a guy that flames out relatively early.
first off, I just cant subscribe to that theory. its about your injury history, not how athletic you are. its kinda misleading when you ask "if a player loses his athleticism" as opposed to "are more athletic players more injury prone". for every case that it is true there is a case that goes against it.
the one valid point you do have is about some guys relying much more on athleticism than others. I dont think it affects draft logic and patterning.
lastly....running quarterbacks has nothing to do with athletic players in the NBA. its about HOW you run. everyone in football gets hurt....but the way RGIII runs as opposed to how others run, is more high risk and point towards signs of a short career if he doesnt adjust.
Westbrook had never missed a game in high school, college or the pros until his injury last season. He had played 439 straight NBA games up until that point which was the longest streak in the league at that time.
Andrew Wiggins reminds me of Harrison Barnes