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Draft Picks Inflated by NCAA Tourney Success

Bird_Years
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Draft Picks Inflated by NCAA Tourney Success

With the top three projected draft picks all coming from the NCAA finals game, I'm wondering if we are overrating players based on recent performances.

I'm not going to argue with Anthony Davis going first overall and I love MKG's and T Rob's heart and hustle, but it seems like both those qualities were the projected 2nd and 3rd picks' primary reasons for NCAA success. There are no obvious superstars later in this draft but using the 2nd and 3rd overall picks on likely 2nd or 3rd option guys seems like a waste to me.

What do you guys think about drafting for potential versus proven ability and whether the 2nd and 3rd picks this year should be spent on MKG and T Rob?


The Q
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T-Rob didn't realy play that

T-Rob didn't realy play that well in the tourney. Take a closer look, very inefficient. He played his absolute heart out, but him missing all those chippies in the first half (and thus leading to Kentucky fast breaks) is basically what cost KU the NCG.

He didn't play well against Purdue or NC St at all either.

Personally, I don't think this draft is nearly as good as everyone thinks.

For me, you have to take Drummond at 1-2.

JoeWolf1
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People were saying the same

People were saying the same thing about Kemba Walker last year. Many critics said he's a combo guard who's barely 6' foot tall who is only getting drafted top 10 because he won an NCAA title, and he's putting up 12.3 ppg 4.3 apg 3.5 rpg and a steal. Yes, there are certain players that are hyped a bit by having great NCAA tournaments and don't live up to that raise in stock, but having success at every level you play at says something about your ability to play within a team system.

omphalos
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I think this draft is going

I think this draft is going to be one of the deepest in a while, but I also think there are going to be a lot of mistakes made. While it's got a lot of players who could be studs, many of them are risky and could cost GMs who take the "safe pick" their jobs.

Thomas Robinson I think is definitely being overrated, but MKG is going to come good in my opinion. I wouldn't select Robinson over Barnes, Davis, MKG or Drummond.

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His FG% was low but he was

His FG% was low but he was getting to the line every game and was a beast on the boards, more importantly he was the best player on the second best team.

I'm with you on this year's draft strength though, a ton of role players most likely but stars are gonna be hard to come by. Drummond makes sense to take a gamble on still, and I like Brad Beal for a top 5 pick.

JoeWolf1
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That's the thing about

That's the thing about Robinson, though, even if he has an iffy game he still has a double double with 2 assists and a steal. His effort helps make up for bad shots. I'm not worried about him at the next level because he won't have to shoulder the load of his team's offense and deal with triple teams like he did against Purdue.

He didn't have the greatest tournament, because you're right, he did have some poor shooting games, but when a guy doesn't play up to his full potential and averages 16.7 ppg and 12.5 rpg and his team makes the title game, I think that proves he's a special talent.

The Q
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A lot of good points here.

A lot of good points here. But I think most of us would agree he's not a #1 on a championship team at the next level.

I think there are very few of those guys in this draft, and that's why it's overrated. Beal might be Eric Gordon, he might be Kyrie Irving or he might be Ben Gordon.

Drummond could be Andrew Bynum or Desagna Diop.

But then you have guys like Barnes and Lamb who cannot create their own shot off the dribble and are more Rip Hamilton type guys who if they're lucky will be a poor man's Ray Allen, albeit with the abilty to be better defenders.

And then there's Perry Jones III, that guy deserves his own thread.

capecodder
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gordon hayward

Definitely inflated by NCAA tourney, BUT....is having a very good year

SeattleSuperChronics
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Kemba walker is garbage I'm

Kemba walker is garbage I'm sorry but it's true. Another horrible pick for the bobcats

T-rob is so overrated

Rolls Royce white helped his stock hecka

Tyler zeller helped his stock a lot also IMO he had some huge games on the defensive end. He was on his way out of the lottery and now I thinks he's a lock over Myers Lenard

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^^@wolfe Wont have to

^^@wolfe

Wont have to shoulder the load....? If he goes to any of the top 3 he will have to be the man on the block.

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The Q

I actually like your Brad Beal comparison to Ben Gordon; however you make it sound like a bad think if Beal ends up like Gordon. Ben Gordon has been a good player in the league for a long time. Career 16.5 ppg, 3p% 40+ and FT% of 85+ are good career numbers for a shooter in a pg's body

The Q
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MJB, I just mean that most

MJB,

I just mean that most would say he wasn't worth the 3rd overall pick. Which is around where Beal is projected to go.

Meditated States
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I like Lamb,Drummond

Davis,Rivers,Jones3rd,Beal as the best prospects

Memphis Madness
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T Rob would be great next to

T Rob would be great next to DeMarcus Cousins. Yeah, he didn't shoot well and he might not be 6'11 but you can say the same about Jared Sullinger who is the only TRUE power forward I can think of in the lottery. Terrence Jones is a stretch four like Jeff Green was and John Henson is a 4/5 guy.

I think T Rob will be very solid. There are question marks about MKG and the other top guys, and T Rob is as good as anyone. Thomas Robinson can rebound, he's a great athlete, and he has a great motor. He's a lock for top 5 and could go as high as 2. He might actually be the best fit for the Wizards if they can't get Anthony Davis and they think they can use Vesely and Singleton at small forward over the long term.

This draft has a lot of depth for solid rotation guys to core guys but not superstar or all-star types. Anthony Davis COULD be a superstar but he is not a lock for that. Not sure how many perennial all-stars are in this draft but I can see a few guys making a couple of all-star games.

I think the draft camps will determine most of the lottery. After Anthony Davis, I would put MKG, T Rob, Harrison Barnes, Drummond, Brad Beal, and Perry Jones all on the same level just about. It will just depend on need and how a guy will fit in. Then I would put Tyler Zeller, Jeremy Lamb, Terrence Jones, Austin Rivers, and Jared Sullinger into the next group of guys -- sort of the mid to late lottery guys. Kendall Marshall and John Henson are two guys who could anywhere from about 10 to 20. Marquis Teague and Damian Lillard are the two other point guards who could rise or fall on draft night and that would not necessarily reflect their value as players. Moultrie is another guy who can go anywhere in the first round pretty much.

I think MKG is rated really high because he is a TEAM player with a great motor and length. He can drive and rebound and that should project well in the NBA. Thomas Robinson projects at a minimum as a high energy, rebounding enforcer. That's a pretty high floor considering that many NBA games are won in the paint.

If Drummond was a 7 footer then I think he would go higher in the draft. But he is 6'10 which could limit his upside and lower his floor.

Barnes struggled somewhat so he is not immediately in the conversation for the top 3 picks. But, if he does well in camps I could see him moving up a bit, but he seems like one of those guys in the 4-8 range.

The Q
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I see zero reason to separate

I see zero reason to separate Lamb and Barnes.

they're basically the same player except Lamb is the better defender.

scbe2223
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Q

You compared Beal to Kyrie Irving a few posts back. Care to explain that one? I don't think their games compare at all outside of both being good shooters. I do like the Ben Gordon comparison though. I think he compares much more favorably to BG than EG.

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From a 2nd round pick to the

From a 2nd round pick to the lottery.

Gordon Hayward.

Although he's been a terrific player and he's definitely worth being a lottery pick, his tournament success really put him on the spotlight.

J_01
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Tyrus Thomas

Perfect example of how a great tournament inflating draft stock. The Bulls traded LA for Tyrus which was a huge mistake. Tyrus had a great tournament and great workouts but has a had a less than stellar career still a good role player but not worth the second pick and especially not worth more than Aldridge who is a top 5 PF.

The Q
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I don't see how an average

I don't see how an average player like Hayward has been worth a lottery pick.

And I wasn't really comparing Beal to any of them per se. I was just saying those types of players.

A short 2 guard who can stroke it (Gordon), a more natural PG who could score and shoot the 3 ball (Irving), or a combo guard who really lacks a position due to his size (Gordon).

Only one of those guys would be considered worth a top 3-5 pick.

The Q
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I dont see how anyone could

I dont see how anyone could possibly say Barnes is a better defender than Lamb (which is what you're "Voting down" for). But I'm open to suggestions.

J_01
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Difference between Lamb and Barnes

Both are players who have trouble creating their own shots and will both most likely be 2nd or 3rd options scoring somewhere between 15-20 ppg at best. Both are good shooters but the difference between them is their physical size. Lamb is 6'4 - 6'5 and 185 lbs while Barnes is 6'7 - 6'8 and 223 lbs. Lamb is a skinny shooter and while there have been some who have had great success (ex. Reggie Miller) 6'8 shooters tend to be safer which is why Barnes is in the tier below Davis while Lamb is in the third tier.

The Q
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Lamb's 7 foot wing span

Lamb's 7 foot wing span limits the size issue IMO.

Hale
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I prefer Barnes to Lamb.

I prefer Barnes to Lamb. Barnes has a few inches and near 40 lbs on him. Barnes gets to the line more often, has shown to be more skilled, has a good post game and averaged around the same amount of points while sharing shots with Zeller and Henson.

The Q
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Sure Barnes is bigger and he

Sure Barnes is bigger and he gets to the line a bit more. You're right. Lamb absolutely needs to go tot he rim more rather than settle for fadeaways an tear drops after he drives. No question about it. Most frustrating part of his game IMO.

But Barnes is also a worse passer, ball handler and defender.

Not to mention he was a much less efficient player offensively despite having way more talent around him.

JoeWolf1
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@robbed. No, not like he did

@robbed. No, not like he did in college. Thomas Robinson was the #1 option in college, and constantly faced double and triple teams to slow him down. He will be a capable scorer in the NBA, but he won't get the same kind of attention he did in college.

I brought that up because in the Purdue game in which he shot terribly from the feild he was triple teamed all game. He has low post game and he will get attention, but thats not how NBA defenses operate. Everyone can shoot so well in the NBA that a team strategy in which one player is intentionally triple teamed only happens in cases of dominant centers like Shaq in his prime.

Top 3 doesn't automatically mean #1 option as a rookie.

abachar
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The NCAA Tourney is hit or

The NCAA Tourney is hit or miss...you can grab a hidden gem like Steph Curry, or on the other hand get Mateen Cleaves

Bucketsfordays
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Royce White

Even though White only played two games in the tourny he showed what he could do against a great team like Kentucky and he had a monster game it pretty much made him a lock for the first round with or without his anxiety issues

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PATRICK O'BRYANT

PATRICK O'BRYANT

dede21
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they were going top 3 before

they were going top 3 before the tourney

Truett
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I think it is somewhat cyclical

But, I agree that we do overweigh tournament performance... Many players do not get seen that much during the season... If they have a good tournament that means they are winning (what most people accept that good bball players do) the more they win, the more we get to see their better qualities... additionally there is not to much tape on their poor qualities... then the pundits get a hold of it and players jump up in the projections... When the workouts happen some of these players drop off and some don't.

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Please dont compare Andre

Please dont compare Andre Drummond to Diop ever again...

The Q
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Dude, I'm a Uconn fan. Im

Dude, I'm a Uconn fan.

Im just using Diop as a 7 foot giant top 10 pick who did absolutely nothing. It's nto a direct comparision.

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