Projecting here that 2015 will be better than 2014. I believe Jabari Parker will stay 2 years, same with Gordon, Young. So now I have at least 6 guys as legit number 1 types with Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Tyus Jones, Stanley Johnson, Myles Turner and Cliff Alexander. And then you have at least starter material down to the 20s. And because the high School classes 2015 and 2016 will be very good and exceptional you can speculate 2016, 2017 should be awesome as well.
Dont think Tyus Jones will be one and done. Especially if he goes to Duke, because Quinn Cook will most likely be the starting PG. and I think Sulaimon is a 3-4 year guy so I dont see them running a two PG like they did with Irving and Smith, so I think he stays two. But I also think 2015 will be better than 2014.
But is this Myles Turner hype getting out of hand? He clearly is a future 4 because of his weight. Is he better than John Henson was at the same stage?
At the very least John Henson was 216 pounds as a college junior and Turner is over 220 pounds in high school.
Other than that I know next to nothing about him lol.
Jabari Parker still has the situation where he may want to carry out his two year Mormon mission. As he has committed to Duke next season, he can assume it will not be then, so that opens up maybe 2014 to 2016. If he wishes to do this in line with his faith then I would not see him staying a second year in college and undertaking it after that, as it would then be 2018 before he would be in the NBA.
I'd assume that maybe one of Kentucky's elite recruiting class this year will stay for another year and we can only second guess at this time for example Aran has Noah Vonleh and Joel Embiid listed in the top 8 of his 2015 draft but they could easily declare next year.
Personally I think that Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Cauley-Stein and Smart all definitely declare next summer after that it is more uncertain.
Slightly off topic, but does anyone think we could start to see a new trend of guys staying for two years if they are either:
A) On a team with a legitimate chance to make the Final Four (i.e. Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes)
B) Virtually guaranteed 1st round picks who want to have that "lottery lock" instead and/or just don't feel ready for the NBA
Personally, I don't want to see guys miss out on money just to stay in college another season but I really think it would help both college basketball and the NBA if most players began to stay in school at least 2-3 seasons instead of going after one season.
HS or 1 year college? Actually look at the players who declared from every class. HS and 1 year players have dominated MVP awards, rings, and All-NBA teams. Don't tell me the league would be better without them. The college game would be better if they were forced to go, but then the term student/athlete becomes a farce.
First of all, I'm well aware of today's stars being known for going straight to the NBA after high school or after one season of college but why wouldn't they still achieve that same success with one or two more seasons in college?
If you want to go there, then how about this list of guys who stayed for three years or more in college. I'm only going to included guys who were drafted from 1980 to the present day.
And the list goes on from there. There are two main reasons for why players do not have the same fundamentals that they used to in the 80s and 90s and that is AAU basketball and being in a rush to get the NBA. If players valued their high school team more than their AAU team and to be taught the right way to play instead of trying to get money as fast as possible, I guarantee that both college basketball and the NBA would be better to watch.
The average HS basketball coach is a TEACHER who, hopefully played basketball as a kid. I know a schools whose Varsity Head Coached NEVER played HS bball. High Schools teams are not the place to improve because most of the time the player that can go D1 is by far the best player in the school.
At least in AAU they are pushed by similiar athletes with similiar skill sets.
If we want the fundemantals improve at a youth level, then there needs to be more sports-focused-prep-schools where they have the money to hire coaches (NOT teachers!). Let most of the D2 and all of the D1 players play in private prep based leagues and let everyone else play normal HS ball.
FYI, in the middle school conference where I coach only HALF of the coaches know what a "help-side" is and why players should be on the "help-line"... if players are supposed to learn from people like that, then the fundamentals will never get better
I guess Indiana basketball is just better than most states then because from my experience, middle school and high school coaches are head and shoulders above AAU coaches when it comes to teaching basketball fundamentals.
Here local travel coaches and middle school coaches (roughly 85% of these two groups from the people I know) are hands down worse than the local AAU team coaches. In high school it gets a little better, but there is usually at least one if not two coaches in the HS program that can't teach the game, or even worse, can only teach the game one way (For example I know one coach who makes everyone of his point guards try to play like Russell Westbrook when some of them have the athletic ability of a Kendall Marshall!)
I really believe, outside of a minority of HS head coaches around here, the best coaching in this area is done by AAU coaches.
It's interesting that you say Indiana is different. CameronCrazy, I have a compeletly unrelated question for you. I was talking to some friends from Kansas and they said AAU basketball was almost non existent because their towns were too far apart and it would be too hard to form a team, so they just play with their HS. Indiana has a few great AAU teams, but do a lot of kids there not play AAU just because it would be too hard to travel far away consitently for practices?
That could definitely be a reason. Some guys like Gordon Hayward and Rodney Carney never played AAU ball, from what I have heard, due to other sports. Hayward was one heck of a tennis player (maybe even a state champ, can't remember) and Carney was a state champ high jumper. Those guys were largely overlooked and ended up both being high draft picks. Obviously Carney's career hasn't been too successful and being a 1st round pick is still impressive none the less.
That being said, I think that generally most guys are able to play AAU basketball in Indiana especially the top level guys. My point is that they learn the fundamentals and basics of the game from their high school coaches for the most part. They generally still play very well on the AAU circuit but I don't always see that same toughness and aggression during AAU that I see during regular season and tournament games for their high school and usually see more mental lapses as well. Many, many schools in Indiana know that they cannot match up physically with certain schools so they have to beat them in other areas like shooting, limiting turnovers, and playing solid defense. In fact, Carmel High School has won two straight 4A (highest class) state titles in Indiana and was mostly a team of undersized guards who all just know how to play the game. Their best player is going to be a walk-on at Butler and he's only about 5'9" or 5'10". Their only big man who really made an impact was Zach McRoberts (younger brother of Josh). And you'll see that throughout the state. Sure there are definitely some coaches who it seems like they have no idea what they're doing but I'd be willing to say that roughly 90-95% of coaches in Indiana focus on fundamentals first through team camps when kids are younger and then continue to mold those players as they grow. I think that's one reason why basketball has always been so popular here. Fans are able to come watch their local boys play and can tell if their coaches are teaching them the right things. To be honest, the movie "Hoosiers" isn't too far off what basketball can be like in Indiana.
Cameron crazy. Yes alot of star players have came from 1 and done and hs but there is also a much larger risks because alot of the time they are not ready for the NBA and it doesnt turn out best for the player.
theres plenty of seniors that don't turn out either. I think it is very individually based. I believe players are either going to make it or not. I don't think age is a factor other than young players have more potential.
I thought some Greek kid will be getting drafted number 1??
The term "NBA ready" and "Upside" are the most used in any draft analysis. I think we agree that teams draft more on upside than NBA readiness unless the rare player who comes along and has both.
When we talk about NBA ready, what do we actually expect the player to be as a lot of rookies are not expected to play major minutes from the start and even the top 3 drafted guys will come from the bench and gradually take on a bigger role as their rookie campaign progresses and into their 2nd year etc.
I think a lot of players often the most talented athletic big guys often lack basic good fundamentials as they have got by on size and athletic ability up to the NCAA level and sometimes even up to NBA level. How often have we seen guys described as beasts suddenly look fairly ordinary against older players in the NCAA and especially in the NBA.