Do GMs EVEN LOOK AT THIS STUFF?
So, when thinking up outlandish trade scenarios for my squad, the Chicago Bulls, I was thinking, "What if we did this and that, and got the 6th pick", or "What if we do this, then we get the 12th pick" and I starting wondering...
Do NBA GM's look at this history of the actual draft slot in determining it's value, like the difference in the 6th pick versus the 5th pick, according to only current players (so there are a few out of the league) -
Player Year Rd. College TeamDrafted By
Antoine Walker 1996 1 - 6 Kentucky Boston Celtics
WallySzczerbiak 1999 1 - 6 Miami(Ohio) MinnesotaTimberwolves
DerMarr Johnson 2000 1 - 6 Cincinnati Atlanta Hawks
Shane Battier 2001 1 - 6 Duke Vancouver Grizzlies
Chris Kaman 2003 1 - 6 C. Michigan L.A. Clippers
Josh Childress 2004 1 - 6 Stanford Atlanta Hawks
Martell Webster 2005 1 - 6 Seattle Prep Portland Trail Blazers
Brandon Roy 2006 1 - 6 Seattle Prep Minnesota Timberwolves
Yi Jianlian 2007 1 - 6 China Milwaukee Bucks
Player Year Rd. College/Team Drafted By
Juwan Howard 1994 1 - 5 Michigan Washington Bullets
Kevin Garnett 1995 1 - 5 Farragut (Ill.) Minnesota Timberwolves
Ray Allen 1996 1 - 5 Connecticut Minnesota Timberwolves
Tony Battie 1997 1 - 5 Texas Tech Denver Nuggets
Vince Carter 1998 1 - 5 North Carolina Golden State Warriors
Mike Miller 2000 1 - 5 Florida Orlando Magic
Jason Richardson 2001 1 - 5 Michigan State Golden State Warriors
Dwyane Wade 2003 1 - 5 Marquette Miami Heat
Devin Harris 2004 1 - 5 Wisconsin Washington Wizards
Raymond Felton 2005 1 - 5 North Carolina Charlotte Bobcats
Shelden Williams 2006 1 - 5 Duke Atlanta Hawks
Jeff Green 2007 1 - 5 Georgetown Boston Celtics (traded to Seattle)
I mean, with the exception of the people at Seattle Prep, who love the 6th pick (Webster and Roy), the difference is striking. Now, I know that the draft landscape was dramatically altered during the late 90's and early 2000's by the influx of unprepared high school kids (which also is a reason that a Top 10 guy like Kobe wasn't even drafted this high), but it isn't even close. I have said this before, but the NFL has a point value chart for the draft. That actually has been debated recently if the NFL draft chart is relevant anymore based on the salary cap and free agency, but I digress. Do NBA GM's have some system to value a pick based on the past performance of others drafted in that spot. I mean, you could easily point out busts in every spot, number 1 overall busts have had a million stories, posts, and jokes written about them. But still, does it seem relevant? I mean, there are 3 less number 6 picks STILL IN THE LEAGUE according to this chart opposed to number 5 picks!
Also, in a draft that is thought to be light on the superstars but deep on the role players, do 2 picks in the 15-20 range mean more than 1 pick in the 6,7,8 range? Or, in a draft that might have some legit 10 year NBA talent going into the 2nd round mean that picks in the 20's are worth something? Is the difference between number 5 and 6 mean more or less in a draft like this, when you might be able to get the same exact guy at 12 that you would have got at 6 based on team need? Let me know your thoughts, I know that I am all over the place but I think that I got my point across here.
Interesting stuff there. The 5's seem to be significantly better then the 6's overall. Personally, I would always take a 6,7,8 pick over two 15-20 picks. 15-20 picks are typically average players if they even make it in the league. The goal of the draft is to try and get a guy who can become a star. "Good" players can be picked up through free-agency easily. Franchise talent is rare, which is why I would rather take a risk on a guy with unique potential then make a safe pick on someone I don't see having a lot of upside.
The 2010 off-season changes things in my mind. There are a lot of teams who are taking on broken down, major bust players for their expiring contracts. Teams like the Knicks, not to get off on a tangent, but they pretty much blew the doors off of the Garden moving players around to get room for 2010. The Nets too (by the way, are they still moving to Brooklyn or what? I think that would be cool). Because of that, there might be some teams who are looking at solid picks, but avoiding a Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday, Demar Derozan, or even an Austin Daye because they do not want to have some project on their hands when they could surround superstar talent with Dejuan Blair, Terrence Williams, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, etc. It's just a thought though, because if you take Jrue Holiday as your only pick (let's say Raptors at 9) and he turns out to be a bust...you pretty much wasted the whole draft. If you have 2 later picks, you could pick up maybe a Ty Lawson and an Austin Daye (just seems like the Raptors like tall, skinny prospects to me) and still swing for the fences while still filling a need. Or remove Daye and put in BJ Mullins, or subtract Holiday and put Tyreke Evans. You know what I mean? Plus, with a team like the Knicks trying to land LeBron in 2010, do you think that LeBron would want a project tweener like Evans or Holiday or do you think he would rather have a combo of Dejuan Blair and Maynor who are already NBA ready? You know? It just seems like a unique year, that's all.
Plus, look at the 6's (above) versus the 13's - I mean, there are legit difference makers here (of course Kobe too) that you might get plus a back up point guard who can play. You know?
Dale Davis 1991
Jalen Rose 1994
Corliss Williamson 1995
Kobe Bryant 1996
Derek Anderson 1997
Corey Maggette 1999
Richard Jefferson 2001
Marcus Banks 2003
Sebastian Telfair 2004
Sean May 2005
Thabo Sefolosha 2006
Julian Wright 2007
I would take Evans, Holliday, or DeRozan over Blair, Williams, Lawson, or Maynor any day. I think those first 3 guys all have the far more potential and if that means waiting an extra year or 2, then so be it. Remeber when New Jersey needed a sg and went with the proven safe pick in (Kerry Kittles) over the unknown potential risk (Kobe Bryant) or when the Bucks wanted the college proven Tractor Traylor over the unknown european Dirk Nowitzky? Of course there are plenty of examples to go the other way as well, but I think GM's need to make a players potential the highest prority over what they did in college any day. That's why I still could never understand why the Hawks gave Shelden Williams a gaurantee with the 5th pick when he clearly had limited ability to grow as a player.
Sam Cassell 1993 1 24 Florida State Houston Rockets
Derek Fisher 1996 1 24 Arkansas-Little Rock Los Angeles Lakers
Andrei Kirilenko 1999 1 24 CSKA (Russia) Utah Jazz
Nenad Krstic 2002 1 24 Yugoslavia New Jersey Nets
Brian Cook 2003 1 24 Illinois L.A. Lakers
Delonte West 2004 1 24 St. Joseph’s Boston Celtics
Luther Head 2005 1 24 Illinois Houston Rockets
Kyle Lowry 2006 1 24 Villanova Memphis Grizzlies
Rudy Fernandez 2007 1 24 Spain Phoenix Suns (traded to Portland)
24 isn't even that terrible. I wouldn't be THAT surprised if Psycho T ends up being an All-Star at some point in his career, which would probably be more all-star appearances than 7 out of the first 12 players taken this year!
I just can't get a handle on this years draft. I can't put my finger on the value of the players, and the guys coming in next year don't help me much either. Those guys are going to have to deal with every GM's pie-in-the-sky dreams of fielding a Bosh, Wade, Amare, Lebron, Kobe lineup for the 2010-2011 season as well. Can't wait for this draft! I think it's going to have a lot of trading going on! Like that one a couple of years ago. Heck, like the last few drafts. I mean, Mayo and Love were traded last year. What is to stop someone getting Rubio for Dejuan Blair and some expiring contract?
The way the NBA is, if you don't think you are getting a superstar and don't think that you have one...you should just draft trade bait anyway. So I guess you are right, unless you want to have a Bulls team like a couple of years ago that beat the defending champ Heat but didn't have an all-star on the squad.
I dont think teams look at that...its mearly coincidence.
Read Mock Draft 3.5!!!
Its part coincedence, part common sense. Each draft for the most part has 2 all stars within a pool of 4 or 5 obvious players (This year would be Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, and i guess rubio), an additonal 2 out of guys w/ upside(Clark, Henderson, Maynor, Lawal, Derozan, T. Wiliams), and usually 1 complete surprise.
Taking into account teams draft for need at the time, its not uncommon that a #5 pick slid a few picks and is already part of the obvious best players. At #6 its less likely and so on
You would think that it's mostly common sense except there are just too many GM's, previous star players especially, tripping over themselves to screw up. I love Steve Kerr and Michael Jordan, and I love them even more when they crap down their pant leg when it comes to the draft. It's like the better the player, the worse the GM. Paxson (and his brother, who drafted Lebron) and Ferry are okay. Dumars picked the only non-contributor out of the Top 10 with the 2nd pick in the best draft in NBA history! Kevin McHale is worse than all of them combined! I don't know if he should get AWARDED, like the Isaiah Thomas award for destroying an organization (Raptors, Knicks, the CBA, an entire league!) or if he should get ARRESTED for not only intentionally working against his team's best interests (trading his buddy Danny Ainge and his beloved Celtics whomever they desire) but trying to work an under the table deal with JOE SMITH that cost his team 4 first round draft picks! Oh, and if there is any other GM in the league would trade away OJ Mayo for Mike Miller and Kevin Love (a PF by the way, the only REAL STRENGTH of the Wolves to begin with in Al Jefferson) I would like to know who? Probably an ex-star like Jordan, well he would have if it were Tyler Hansbrough instead of Kevin Love.
Oh wait, Jerry West is amazing. There is the exception to the rule. I guess that's why he's the logo.
well there is my rant for the day! Sorry T-Wolves fans, I actually like the Wolves. They are close to the Bulls geographically and they drafted Garnett. I just don't know how McHale keeps his job.
NO chance at Hansbrough being an all star. If that were to happen, there would be no one watching the NBA anymore.
Ha! nthegoodlife - 1, unathletic, overcompensating white pf's who peak their sophomore year of college - 0. I think that you are right, but I don't see that much of a difference in him than I did for Carlos Boozer at the same time during his draft. He was a 2nd rounder too, which still blows my mind. Boozer and Michael Finley, two guys I am still pissed that the Bulls didn't take when they had the chance (you know, out of the realistic end of the 1st or 2nd round picks that we drafted some schmuck instead based on potential or the word of some overseas scout)