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Crazy Lottery Standings

the27guy
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Crazy Lottery Standings

For those of us fans of teams that were eliminated from the playoffs long ago, at least we get to watch the lottery seedings. With just a few days left the lottery is usually a little more set than this year. I'm blown away by the surge the Kings and Wiz have made in the last few weeks, basically showing their fans something to be encouraged about for next year but at the same time, moving a few spots down in the seedings.

So, with one game left, if the Wiz win (@ Cavs), and the Kings (home game against LA), and the Nets (@ Bulls) both lose, we'll get to see a 3 way tie for 4th in the standings.

Why is this significant? Because it will give the Jazz--who have the Nets pick-- the Kings, and the Wiz each a 9% chance of winning the lottery and over a 30% chance of getting into the top three. What's more, the annual coin flip ceremony to break the ties before the lottery will be extremely important, as the difference between the 4th and 6th pick is often fairly significant.

As a Jazz fan, I just became a much bigger fan of the Kings and Cavs than I have ever been!


JimmeredYaWabafet
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i have your team selecting

i have your team selecting Kanter and Jimmer

butidonthavemoney
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/\

That's fair. Personally, I'd like to see us draft Irving or Knight with the first pick and a Euro with the second (Vesely, Valanciunas, Motie -- in that order) that we can stash for a year or two.

SwatLakeCity
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No big men for the Jazz in this draft

@Lionsinheat: If the Jazz draft a bigman this year, I will not be happy. The Jazz have plenty of big man, they don't need anymore. (Millsap, Jefferson, Favors, Fez and not to mention the injured Okur) That's 4 healthy big men and if Okur comes back healthy next season then the Jazz would have 5. Even if Okur does not come back healthy next season they would be fine with 4 big man and another one would just crowd the post meaning no playing time for Kanter. They need a SF and SG, they have been needing a SG since the dawn of time, I don't why you haven't seen that. Especially when they started Raja Bell for most of the season and he ended the season averaging 8pts while Miles, who backed Bell up for most of the season , averaged about 13pts and 3 boards. Yeah, Miles averaged more points and eventually became the starter once Coach Sloan retired but even when Miles started he was still just as inconsistent as he was on the bench as their 6th man. I don't know about you but I'd rather have an inconsistent bench player than an inconsistent starter.

And before I tell you what's wrong with your Jimmer pick, let me ask you one question, did you just put him there by default because he's the favorite for the Jazz or did you actually do some research and find the player that best fits their system? My guess is this was just by default because Jimmer is the favorite for the Jazz's 2nd pick. But if you actually did some research then you would have found that Jimmer is a score first PG, while the Jazz's system depends on passing not on scoring. The Jazz would rather have their PG pass 1st and score 2nd. This is one reason why John Stockton leads the league in assists and Deron Williams always averaged around 9 or 10 assists a game. Jimmer is not a bad pick for the Jazz but if there is still a SG or a SF on the board at either of their 2 picks then the Jazz should not select Jimmer, but instead a SG (Alec Burks) or a SF (Terrence Jones, Kawhi Leonard or Derrick Williams)

i'm jus so offended
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jerry sloan aint the coach no

jerry sloan aint the coach no more homie, now im sure ty runs the same sort of system but that may not last and he himself may not either. And I think big man would be a decent pick, Okur is gone after next year and he's not the same guy he was a few years back, the knee has shot his confidence. and are you really saying you would rather have Fez over Kanter or Jonas???? GOOD CALL. but yes i do agree, don't take Jimmer just to please the fans, the Knicks better not do it either, they need a defensive big bad

iminipanda
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Moving

As a Kings fan it saddens me that I may no longer to be able to go to the arena to watch my team play. They seem to have great momentum going into next season and their great potential is just starting to begin.

SwatLakeCity
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Again, The jazz will not draft a big man in this draft

No, Im jus so offended, What I am saying is that I'd rather have Millsap, Jefferson and Favors over Kanter and Valanciunas. If the Jazz draft a big man, they will be bombarded down low and some one will not get playing time. Kanter and Valaciunas would both be going to a stacked team at C and PF. The Jazz need a SF and SG, ASAP.

JimmeredYaWabafet
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i know this sounds sort of

i know this sounds sort of stupid but i think the Jazz need to clean house of the new Jazz players of Harris,Jefferson, and Millsap. Ok since the Bobcats are an awful scouting team and Jordan wants to be competive right now they are the perfect match with the Jazz.

On draft day the Jazz trade Paul Millsap,Devin Harris, and Al Jefferson for the Bobcats 2011 first,the other 2011 first,Joel Billa expiring,Diop, Najera, and Diaw

Bobcats new lineup Augustin Harris Jackson Millsap Jefferson

Then the Jazz draft Kanter,Terrence Jones,Jimmer, and Marshon Brooks/Demetri Mccamey

New lineup

Jimmer Brooks/Mccamey Terrence Kanter Favors

Then the team would obviously be a lottery team the next year maybe having the chance at players like Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb

thunderbear82
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Why would they trade for the

Why would they trade for the bobcat's garbage, if they were going to trade them to rebuild, then I think they would trade them to lottery teams for picks.

JimmeredYaWabafet
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negatives for letting the

negatives for letting the Jazz to have a chance in the top 5 in the 2012 draft? 0_o

JimmeredYaWabafet
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Why would they trade for the

Why would they trade for the bobcat's garbage, if they were going to trade them to rebuild, then I think they would trade them to lottery teams for picks

its cuz Jefferson,Harris, and Millsap equalls 29 million

kacey
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Wouldn't it be crazy if the

Wouldn't it be crazy if the Jazz get the first two picks of the draft?

SwatLakeCity
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Clean house? what a stupid idea

Why would the Jazz need to clean house?

  1. They still have a relatively young team. Only one old guy is under contract, Raja Bell, and he will probably be traded around draft time for a 2nd round pick. Earl Watson, AK, Elson are all free agents next year.
  2. The Jazz did not have dismal season this year because of locker room problems like the Wizards did last year. They just had a dismal season because of two reasons, one, a hall of fame coach left, and a rookie coach, who obviously needs more Jerry Sloan tutiledge, took his place. What do you expect? And two they traded away their all star PG, Deron Williams. Not because of locker room problems but because they did not expect him to stay after his contract was up, so they wanted to get something out of him before he abandoned ship.
  3. They are going to have a lottery pick next year no matter what because they have the Warriors pick in 2012 which is top 7 protected.
  4. Big AL is learning how to play in the Jazz's system and is not becoming so much of a black hole in this offense. Millsap has always beed playing great for the Jazz, why would they want to trade him? (His contract is not that big, even for 6th man energy type guy, not for the numbers he produces)
  5. Harris is a great mentor guy to keep for the young PG that I am expecting the Jazz to draft next year. Harris can probably be traded next year but certainly not this year.

I can see the Bobcats needing to clean house since they pretty much already have by trading away Wallace and not getting a SF in return and putting Boris Diaw on the block, but not the Jazz. The only other team in the lottery that needs to clean house is the Pistons.

SwatLakeCity
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So you're saying there's a chance

@Jamie Y. To quote "Dumb and Dumber": "So you're saying there's a chance"

JimmeredYaWabafet
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They are going to have a

They are going to have a lottery pick next year no matter what because they have the Warriors pick in 2012 which is top 7 protected.

didnt know about that,the Warriors sort are stuck in that late lottery area since nobody from this draft will make an immediate impact for them, yea the pick will be a lottery pick,so whatever i guess.

esperanzafleet69
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this years draft will suck

this years draft will suck anyways.. this seems all irrelevant.. kyrie irving and derrick williams are really at this point the only players actually worthy of a top 6 pick anyways...

scootover7
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how crazy would it be if

how crazy would it be if Cleveland got the 1st pick, Utah got the 2nd, Cleveland got the 3rd and Utah got the 4th. That would be insane. Or If Cleveland got the top two and then Utah got the next two or vice versa. Either way the top two players you'd take are Derrick Williams and Kyrie Irving.

scootover7
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Cleveland needs to land the

Cleveland needs to land the number one pick so they can take Derrick Williams, they don't really need Kyrie Irving when they already have three point guards, B-Davis, Sessions and Gibson.

stepback3
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scootover7

"how crazy would it be if Cleveland got the 1st pick, Utah got the 2nd, Cleveland got the 3rd and Utah got the 4th. That would be insane."

Can't be done, the lottery is only the first 3 picks and then it goes back to the the next worst record.Utah wouldn't get the 4th pick Minny would.

HotSnot
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@ Nzers

Scootover7 is correct.

Cleveland could end up with 2 of the top 3 picks via the lottery. Their own pick stays top 3 (can drop no lower then 4th if you have the worst record) and hoping the Clippers pick (unprotected) moves up into the top 3. (The Clips pick can move up or down 2 spots if not in the top 3. So between 6 and 10th picks.) In that scenario the best Utah could do is to get the other top 3 pick and move up from 6th to 4th with their own. Minny's pick if (they finish with the 2nd worst record) can drop as low as 5th. Toronto could drop from 3rd to 6th.

The 3 teams with the worst record could all miss the top 3 picks (in theory). They would pick 4th,5th and 6th. Basically they can drop up to 3 spots. The other 11 teams to miss the playoffs can drop no more then 2 spots from where they finished.

So this draft could end up with some variation of Cleveland and Utah coming out with the top 4 picks.

If you take this game further... and Cleveland ends up still grabbing Detroits 7th pick (unprotected). Cleveland could end up with the top 3 picks in the draft. Minny would go 4th, Tor 5th and Utah 6th.

OhCanada-
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3rd and 4th place are

3rd and 4th place are basically the exact same odds, as are 5th and 6th place. They should be fighting for that 4th place postion, but at the end of the day it doesnt really matter because the die could roll any way. last year Washington went 1st and Philly 2nd, neither teamhad any buisness being there.

SwatLakeCity
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Nzers is correct, Hotsnot and scootover7 are wrong

No Hotsnot, nzers is correct. You are right that the lowest Cleveland can get is 4th while the highest is 1st. You are also right about the Clippers (cavs pick) needing to get in the top 3 in order for this to happen but their pick is likely to randge from 6-10. But the Jazz's other pick is at 12. I don't think a twelve seed has ever done so well in the lottery that they get a top 3 pick. The range for the other pick would be from 10-14. Realistically any of the 14 teams can get the top 3 picks but usually it ranges from the top 6 teams becuase these teams have the best chance. Meaning that the top 3 picks are most likely between Cavs, Minny, Raptors, Wizards, Nets (Jazz pick), and Kings. Once the top 3 is figured out the order is reset from the worst team left to best team left. Meaning that if the Cavs and Jazz do end up with the top 2 picks then Minny would likely get the 4 pick or it would go to the Raptors. Besides I don't think Commisoner Stern would allow the same team to pick twice in the top 3.

gone
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The Jazz need a wing and a

The Jazz need a wing and a center because Al Jefferson needs to go

stepback3
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Minny will lose to Houston

if Minny lose 2 Houston they will have the worst recond and if the 3 lottery ball miss them they will still have 4 pick.

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