[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

http://www.celticshub.com/2016/06/06/beating-nba-draft-importance-player-age-pick-range/

Read his article to understand how he makes a formula that correlates age, draft position, and success. Making a correlation into a predictive tool is dangerous work, but it definitely adds the conversation about who to draft. 



Does being younger predict success? There is no clear correlation in the top 3. However, there is a correlation between success and youth in 4-20. This makes Chriss, Bender, Murray, Ellenson, Davis, Korkmaz, etc. look a lot more interesting (even though our pick is top 3, he explains why he thinks our pick should be grouped with the 4th for this draft). 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 Sorry, here is the other half of his conclusions. 

Does being older and more experienced predict success?  There is no clear correlation in the top 3. However, there is clear correlation between age and FAILING to meet expectations in 4-20. This does not bode well for Hield, Jackson, Luwawu, Prince, Valentine, and Dunn (also maybe 20ish year olds like Brown, Poelti, Baldwin, Sabonis, Jones, and Skal). There is also significant correlation between being older and outplaying draft position from picks 21 to the end of the draft. Guys like Gbinje, Brogdon, Hammons, Lavert, Selden, Payton might fall into this category.

 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 Sorry, here is the other half of his conclusions. 

Does being older and more experienced predict success?  There is no clear correlation in the top 3. However, there is clear correlation between age and FAILING to meet expectations in 4-20. This does not bode well for Hield, Jackson, Luwawu, Prince, Valentine, and Dunn (also maybe 20ish year olds like Brown, Poelti, Baldwin, Sabonis, Jones, and Skal). There is also significant correlation between being older and outplaying draft position from picks 21 to the end of the draft. Guys like Gbinje, Brogdon, Hammons, Lavert, Selden, Payton might fall into this category.

 

 

[zruc57Participant]

Interesting article.

I generally do believe in this idea drafting college junior and seniors in lottery is generally a bad idea (of course, there are exceptions). Simply based on logic, that a 22 yo year old should beat the hell out of an 18 yo old. We shouldn’t be shocked when a player like Kaminsky or Hield beats up on an 18 year old. Of note, there are many exceptions of older players being drafted later in the lottery- especially players who went to smaller schools- this makes sense, as they don’t have the exposure or are late bloomers.

While we do have the same belief, this article most likely doesn’t use statistics well enough to be trusted. By his data, it stats that 20 yo from picks 20-30 has a strong possiblity of busting over 19 or 21 year olds. This can’t possibly be correct. As they say with statistics, if a person is able to find enough data, he can spot out possible trends- even if they were randomly selected. Of course, statistics may tell a strong story, I would just like another eye to analyze this for standard deviation. Also, errors like how relevant it is to compare the 1985 draft to today.

Good article tho. Seniors, while exceptions from small schools, generally are overdrafted in the lottery. (2nd round all hell breaks loose)

[zruc57Participant]

Interesting article.

I generally do believe in this idea drafting college junior and seniors in lottery is generally a bad idea (of course, there are exceptions). Simply based on logic, that a 22 yo year old should beat the hell out of an 18 yo old. We shouldn’t be shocked when a player like Kaminsky or Hield beats up on an 18 year old. Of note, there are many exceptions of older players being drafted later in the lottery- especially players who went to smaller schools- this makes sense, as they don’t have the exposure or are late bloomers.

While we do have the same belief, this article most likely doesn’t use statistics well enough to be trusted. By his data, it stats that 20 yo from picks 20-30 has a strong possiblity of busting over 19 or 21 year olds. This can’t possibly be correct. As they say with statistics, if a person is able to find enough data, he can spot out possible trends- even if they were randomly selected. Of course, statistics may tell a strong story, I would just like another eye to analyze this for standard deviation. Also, errors like how relevant it is to compare the 1985 draft to today.

Good article tho. Seniors, while exceptions from small schools, generally are overdrafted in the lottery. (2nd round all hell breaks loose)

[Author]

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