The case for Noel over McLemore
As a Bobcats fan who watches every single game on television here is my opinion. Everyone talks about how awful we are at scoring, which is very true. A much less glamorous but certainly more pressing need is rebounding and presence in the paint. If you looked at a list of our bigs you would laugh. The difference between Gerald Henderson and Ben McLemore is nowhere near as wide as the difference between whoever we decide to start at center and Nerlens Noel. If we pick Noel we will be just as awful next year since he will be out most of the year and won't have much to contribute on offense anyways. But seriously if it means that we have someone in the paint that is worth a shit we really need him.I would much rather have Noel and Henderson at the 5 and 2 than &$#%#&@! Byron "raining 3's" Mullens and McLemore. McLemore is going to be a good player and could possibly be the best scorer in this class, but that really isn't the most pressing need we have.
Picture this: We draft Noel this year, he sits for most of next year and we are near the bottom of the league again. We go into next year's class with 3 picks (Ours, Detroits, and Portlands). At this point we address the starter positions at the 2 and the 4, and then grab someone to build up our bench which would probably be best available. That gives us a young core to move forward with. I will certainly not be mad at all if we draft Ben McLemore, but I think he is the second best option for our team.
For reference here is a list of our PG's and wings:
Here is a list of our bigs:
McRoberts and Mullens are the only 2 bigs on that list with a PER above 10 (yeah you read that right), and Mullens pads his stats by taking awful 3's and being all around frustrating to watch. In my opinion McRoberts and Biyombo are the only 2 people on that list that deserve minutes on an NBA roster (maybe Mullens if he is a bench player). I know not a lot of people watch the Bobcats, but as a fan and someone who has been watching a ton, please listen to me. I know I'm not going to be able to change everyone's minds on this subject but hopefully someone stops bashing the idea of taking Noel over McLemore.
Also if his injury woes continue this draft is &$#%#&@! anyways so it won't be like we passed up Jordan or Durant.
With Noel's injury, Im not sure Jordan is going to pull the trigger on him, he played safe last year in the draft by selecting MKG I think. He really could have picked with the most upside in Andre Drummond, but elected to play safe. Noel has the most upside in the draft I think.. Theres also the fact that They have Biyombo whose game resembles Noel's.. I have them picking Mclemore.. But would love them picking Oladipo.. As I already said, MKG and Olidipo would be a deadly defensive duo on the perimeter.
Nice analysis. I guess I assumed the Bobs would take McLemore because they already Biyombo. The one variable that you can't predict in all this is Jordan. He's very unpredictable in his drafting and could take anyone.
Only 2 bigs with a PER above 10 = brutal.
no need to build a case, Noel hands down! I don't think Ben is a real top 10 draft player.......don't think but I know Noel is the better pick by far
If McLemore isn't a "real" top 10 draft player in this class then who is???
Wow that's a bad roster. Good god do you need Wiggins.
I think if Charlotte lands one of the first two picks, they should trade down. Noel has zero offensive game and McLemore doesn't really fill a need. If they're deadset on taking a big, they should trade down for Len or Olynyk, both of whom will rebound AND score for you.
The problem is nobody in this draft is worth the $4,436,900 paycheck you have to shell out for a number 1 pick. Seriously nobody really wants to win the lottery because that means they will have to overpay a player. We are pretty much going to be stuck with this pick.
i really really believe if Nerlens would be healthy there wouldn't be a discussion AT ALL..'
i haven't seen #1 SG for a while, and especially a SG who can't get above 10point in like 4of5 tournament games
He put up a stinker against UNC, but that was the only tournament game he failed to drop at least 10 points.
He had 11 against Western Kentucky and 20 against Michigan. So he went for over 10 ppg 2 out of 3 tournament games, good for an 11 ppg average.
OK I was talking out of my memory, but still 11PPG? for a number 1 pick?
how about 10/29 shooting in those games, 4/16 from three, 0steals..
the way he played and took his game to another level in the tournament was absolutely opposite what Bradley Beal did a year ago
Hey, I get that he didn't have a great tournament, but I think people should cool their jets a little before they throw Ben under the bus. It's becoming like a folk tale spread by word of mouth how poorly he played.
McLemore is still a great prospect. People are a little too "knee jerk" on this site sometimes. He's not perfect, he needs to work on his handle, and add strength and shouldn't be exempt from criticism, but when the criticism is based on untrue numbers, I just felt I needed to set the record.
I think people are forgetting that regardless of they have other bigs that have not done much, Noel is a big man with huge upside. Charlotte would be wise to gamble on potential in this draft. They already have Henderson who is pretty solid. How much better is Mclemore over Henderson? Charlotte is weak at the 4 and 5 and I would not be surprised if they made some draft moves for a legit big man like Gortat.
If it were me, there is no question I would take Noel with the first pick. If I were going to trade that pick down...I would be targeting Len and Oladipo and get rid of Henderson. I am not that impressed with Mclemore like some others have been.
It might end up being financial. Gerald Henderson put up his best pro season as he now enters the market as a restricted free agent. Henderson is one of those guys who is a solid player, but you don't want to overpay. Not to mention, Ben Gordon is going to be a free agent.
It would not surprise me if they draft McLemore, with 1,2,3, or whichever pick they get, as insurance in case Henderson gets too high of a qualifiying offer and if he doesn't...a guy who can give you over 10 ppg off the bench spreading the floor, like Gordon who will most like be gone.
If Ben looks good they can keep him and trade Henderson for an asset, or if they choose Henderson they can trade McLemore while he's still young for an asset or a draft pick. Either way he gives you something Henderson doesn't have, and that's outside shooting and a cheaper contract.
Gordon has a player option for like 13.2M, so I really don't see him turning that down. Also, McRoberts will be a free agent and Mullens mights be, so adding some big men would make sense.
Noel is far and away the best prospect in this draft. The ACL injury is the only thing making this a conversation. You've got a long atheltic 4/5 man with potential who dominated defensively you don't pass on that ever.
Bobcats should trade the pick for additional future first round picks. Prefer a team like PHX or NO who will be in the lottery next year. So they can have two lottery picks in a better draft next year.
I don't think PHO or NO would want to do this...
I would definitely take Noel if I were in the Bobcats position. IMO there aren't any bigs that will be in the draft next year that have the potential to be a dominate defensive presence like Nerlens does. Plus think about it, if the Bobcats take McLemore they most likely will still be terrible next year and will end up with a high lotto pick in a draft that is stacked with wing players, most of whom will probably end up being better than McLemore in the future. If they draft Nerlens, they'll have a big with a ton of potential thats already a great defender (obviously needs to add strength) and will have a ton of options next year in the draft to get a wing player that is more likely to become a great scorer and overall player in the NBA.
I think that every scenario that everyone has stated is one that could unfold come Draft night. I've been impressed by both McLemore and Noel's upside, and think that they could have very bright futures in the league.
I do agree, though, with a few more than others who've already posted; I feel that it would be best for the Bobcats organization to trade down if they are awarded the top overall pick.
If you look at the bottom 5-7 teams in the league (Orlando, Cleveland, Phoenix, Detroit, New Orleans, and Sacramento), most of them seem to be set on a top shooting guard (Afflalo, Waiters, Bynum/Stuckey/Knight/Singler, Gordon/Rivers, Evans/Thornton/Fredette, etc., respectively) while not all of them have the best big men (Orlando, Cleveland, Phoenix, Detroit, and Sacramento could all use some help in the frontcourt). If the season were to end today and draft order were set in stone based off of records, and Charlotte was guaranteed the top pick, I could easily see them trading down to any of these teams so that any of these organizations could move up to take one of the more athletic, proven bigs that this draft does provide (i.e. Noel, Porter, Bennett). With Charlotte dropping and taking a slightly lower pick, they can save themselves some free agency cap money, and still most likely land Oladipo, a solid defender (2.2 spg) who has developed beautifully on the offensive end.
After the way Gerald Henderson has played for the Bobcats over the last month or so, he's going to expect a really nice payday, and while his numbers over the last 30 days have been nice, it's slightly discouraging to have to pay so much for someone whose career-best 3-pt percentage is 33%. Don't get me wrong, I think Henderson is a great athlete, but his numbers have never wowed me as a former lottery pick.
I understand the argument for a big; Charlotte needs one in the worst way, and was absolutely slighted out of a franchise big in last year's draft (thank you David Stern). Yet there are a handful or bigs that will be free agents this summer that Charlotte could coerce into choosing the Queen City; while Dwight Howard might be out of reach (even though they would have plenty of cap room to sign him), other bigs such as Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Dejuan Blair, and Antawn Jamison will all be UFA in due time. Heck, maybe Emeka Okafor (who has an ETO) might want to return to the city where his career began, or the Cats could pick up Lamar Odom for cheap since I'm pretty sure no one else will want him.
Trading down would take pressure off of a potential overall number 1 who may never be able to live up to expectations (especially in Jordan's organization). It would allow for Charlotte to stock pile more draft picks (whether on a second round flier for this season or next), and it will give Charlotte the slightest bit amount of extra cash to throw around in free agency. I say trade down.
In responding to Noel vs. Mclemore, let me first say that I think we may be overlooking Charlotte's cap friendly situation. Cho has made some great moves to acquire expiring contracts (Diop 8 mil, Gordon 13 mil, McRoberts 3 mil). Charlotte is currently 3rd in space this year at 58 mil and will drop down to 40 mil next year before signing draft picks and free agents.
It is highly unlikely a top tier talent will land in Charlotte (Howard, Paul, Smith, Jefferson) but there are some nice consolation prizes. Millsap would be great for the front court for rebounding or scoring. As would someone with NC ties in JJ Hickson. Chris Kaman will be available. Charlotte can do sign and trades for guys like Sessions, Henderson, or even Gordon to acquire such players. Or simply spend the money since they have it. Cho has said all along this is a multi year build. When your the worst team ever it will take 3-4 years to maybe be relevant again. I'd say ambitiously we are talking 2-3 years to fight for an 8th seed. Cho has experience with teams that build via the draft AND free agency in OKC and San Antiono.
As to Noel vs. McLemore, I think McLemore has not necessarily the higher ceiling but is simply better for the team need and what else is out there in Free Agency. You can get more for Henderson in a trade, who will command more money next year and whose skill set may have reached its full potential. McLemore will not be all that much of a drop off from Henderson in production AS A ROOKIE, development is the key. McLemore's closest comparison from scouts is Ray Allen. Ray Allen doesn't come around everyday. McLemore has a great stroke, not Allen's, but already elite level. He is a much better athlete than Allen. With time he could develop handles and shot creating from his athleticism to pair with elite shooting--which is a scary combo. Allen has been a 20+ points guy for years--McLemore can be All-Star potential. He stretchs the floor with his range, which creates space for Walker and MKG who are great slashers.
Noel on the other hand is attractive as well. Injuries are a concern. We have already talked about is he Biyombo 2.0? I don't think that is fair regarding he already is better offensively than Biyombo. Noel has better size, 6'11 vs 6'9. I think the better comparsion for Noel isn't Biyombo but Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has a great first step to create offense. Noel is EXPLOSIVE. He uses a quick step to create offense. Biyombo really just dunks and has just now developed a decent post game. Noel with time could develop a J like Ibaka has. Ibaka was even more raw than Noel when he first came into the league. All three, Ibaka, Noel, and Biyombo are elite help defenders and shot blockers. I think Noel is more of a 4 man than a true 5 with regards to his frame, weight, and build.
I just see this as the more intriguing line up--
C-Biyombo, Kaman ?
PF-Hickson, Millsap ?
C-Biyombo, Kaman ?
PF-Noel, Millsap, Hickson ?
They will either retain Henderson or draft a replacement. Again this year's draft isn't the cake NEXT YEAR'S is.
At first, really, no good big man in Charlote... At second, no really good defender in Charlote, and it's more worrying is no good team defence...
And thing what i don't like in bb no many offensive actions in book...
Maybe not Hakeem, Jordan and Stockton on this draft, but you can pick Michael Olowokandi as first pick, so...you have to be smart... every draft have some players who can give more than people mean... (Parker, Ginobili, Pekovic... and common, at probaby best draft ever from 1884 John Stockton was a 16th pick overal....)
...BUT... I really belive that Charlote need to do more than pick one (two) good player on draft to make a "play-off competitor team"...
What people really forget is, Noel wasn't even the odds on number 1 pick when he was healthy. Its like, ever since he's gotten hurt, everyone is trying to talk themself into an incredibly raw offensive player. Yes Noel is versatile, but he won't help the Bobcats at all. They will still be terrible, and he might not even play next year. And if we are going to preface this with "Well, what if they get Wiggins and he lives up to all the hype?" then I would still rather them have B Mac because you need guys on the wings who can play multiple spots and guard multiple spots and score. You don't "need" a center. Again, its just my opinion but I didn't see enough out of Noel to say he was a slam dunk.
The good thing for Noel to come from his injury is people have stopped nitpicking his deficiencies, which is why we are now seeing his stock rise again. Otherwise we'd be talking about the things he can't do as opposed to his potential. McLemore laid an egg in his last game and so that is what people are now remembering.
Heres the thing... I don't totallly disagree with this post, and I agree McLemore has to be more assertive.
But he doesn't deserve so much of the blame, and that Michigan game was a microcosm of Kansas' season. McLemore did far from laying an egg. He was on fire, he was dominating, he was coming off screens, pulling up, getting to the rim, running the floor, and looking great. THEN Bill Self inexplicably took him out of the game late. Then when he came back in, ELIJAH JOHNSON STARTED PLAYING HORRRRRRRRRIBLE. They didn't run a single play in B Mac's direction, and it's kind of hard to do anything when a PG just continues to take bad shots, make bad decisions, and turn the ball over. And I respect the hell out of Bill Self, but there were a couple of do-or-die possessions where in that huddle I would be scolding everyone that the ball is going to McLemore. And that clearly didn't happen.