Are Draft Sites too scared to drop Nerlens Noel in their mock draft???
Just have to say I'm a little shocked at what's happening around draft sites since the combine numbers came out...
A 6'10, 206 pound "Freak Athlete" slated to play Pf or C in the NBA who is currently out with a Torn Acl, which means no athletic testing and no 1 on 1 player evaluations and he DOESN'T drop on everyone's mock draft...WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY???
This tells me there is something fishy going on...After Chad Ford all but confirmed that he's not dropping Noel on his board because he's been there all year and he's not into changing his tune after all the facts have been laid out...Ford's television counterparts were shocked at Noel's weight and brought up the difficulties he'll face defending the Center position, Chad Ford shrugged off the comments by former NBA players and analysist and basically said "Hey, he's still my number 1 pick"
My question for Aran, Chad and the mutants over at NBAdraftexpress is " What are we all missing here"???
Sure he put some good numbers in a weak SEC, but he didn't lead his team to many wins and still Tore up his ACL at the end of the year...The Combine measurements only hurt his cause because I was floored to see him weigh 206 pounds when he's probably going to be playing C in the NBA unless he becomes a Kenneth Faried type at Pf...Either way you look at it he's not even going to play next year and who knows how well he'll do when he does step foot on an NBA court...
Bottom line, why is everyone afraid to drop Noel on their big board when we know what we know already about his injuries and weight???
Draft day I think he slides and Zeller climbs.
Because alot of these guys are afraid to look stupid. Look at Draft Express. Just five days ago they were criticizing Steven Adams for having small hands.
""Adams seems to have smaller hands than average for a player his size"
Then at the NBA combine it turns out that Steven Adams has the longest and widest hands at the NBA combine. So what does Draft Express do. They erase the sentence from their article that criticized Steven Adams for having small hands.
In the past Draft Express has been fairly accurate but this year they are extremely stubborn about keeping Noel at #1. Draft.net dropped off his bandwagon a while ago and moved him out of the #1 spot.
It seems that Draft Express doesn't really do their own assessment in these rankings but basis the rankings off what they hear from their sources in the NBA. And these sources may be blowing smokescreens or are just clueless. I'm sure if Noel sits in the green room or is a bust, Draft Express will edit out their Noel evaluation and pretend that they never were so in love with the guy.
The other thing Noel has going for him is World Wide Wes and the marketing and hype machine associated with it.
Also there's little mention of the previous injury to that same leg or knee that kept him out a full season in high school by these mock draft "experts":
I agree 100% with you on that. these guys don't want to look stupid and they are frontrunners for who ever looks great at the time. their egos can't take a hit in there minds. I truly believe compared to what noel has been described as by several draft experts, he will be a bust. now im not saying he can't be a good defender in the nba eventually, but he is not going to be a game changing defender he is described as, in my opinion. so by that standard I think he will be a bust.
A lot of these sites are run by good amateurs who know their basketball and have a fair few links and get to hear rumours quite quickly but still a lot of draft positioning is subjective. Even someone as knowledgable as Aran will move his draft around a lot throughout the season reacting to performances.
The Mock boards will move a fair lot over the next month until draft night, often they move more bost NCAA season than during it.
But the big sites such as ESPN who use goodness knows how much analysis will get a lot more feedback and thoughts on the draft than Aran will on here. So with everyone keeping Noel high then he must be highly rated in all quarters.
Aran has had McLemore number 1 for a while and with two other top 5 level guys on the mock in Len and Bennett both also injured and Smart returning, this alone will shore Noel's draft status up. Aran moved Cody Zeller back up from 8/9 to 4 recently and will adjust his mock several times over the next few weeks as we all will.
I personally never mock draft until after the draft lottery as I feel it is pointless if I spend time doing a detailed draft considering say who Charlotte may take at 2 and they drop down to 4 or say who the Kings will take at 6 and they move up to 3 etc.
All mocks are subjective and as regards Noel his 206lbs weight is a concern to me and I'm still figuring where to pop him into my mock draft when I complete it but I'm still figuring on him being in the top 4.
Weight won't be a problem and its not like the center position is what it used to be. Once he starts working with nba staff he will be fine. I think he is going to shut some people up if he comes back healthy
There's no better PROSPECT than Noel. Regardless of his weight/ACL issues, the fact remains that he can still be a top-shelf defensive player in the NBA. There's no player who will be a clear-cut franchise changer in this draft, and the bottom line is, nobody has supplanted Noel as the prime prospect in this draft. There are big questions with every top prospect, and it just happens that Noel's flaws are less concerning than the flaws of other prospects at the moment.
Also, keep in mind the draft order hasn't been set yet, and things will become a lot more clear as the process carries on.
He is not going to drop that much, if at all. Seriously. I have the same concerns as Scarecrow and others, especially with his being 206 pounds. That is ridiculous. The issue is, it seems that teams believe Nerlens will be one of the major difference makers in the draft. He could be a big factor on defense, is really athletic for his size and seems to have much more upside than most of the big men in this draft due to his movement. This of course when he is healthy, though all news surrounding it seems to be that teams expect him to be.
Now, here is another theory Chad Ford is claiming NBA teams are throwing around, it is ridiculous, however possibly true. The rumor is, that teams are content on drafting Nerlens for the upside, letting him take all the time he needs to recover from his ACL tear and put their eggs in the 2014 lottery basket. Because than they will DEFINITELY get Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle or Marcus Smart. Or not (which is indeed more likely than getting any of those four).
I find this theory to be a losing one and doubt that a single prospect in this draft immediately changes a team standing by himself, so why not go for the best one? Well, seems like teams actually believe that might be Nerlens. It is crazy sauce, however with these big men, they all have absolutely legitimate concerns. Cody Zeller put up huge combine numbers, yet he is also small and not long in the least. He could have a much harder time offensively, along with his previous known issues of being an average rebounder and poor defender. Alex Len is a total question mark, he has skills and he has size, just want to see maybe more drive on his behalf.
To me, Zeller and Len are the only "big men" who realistically would be taken ahead of Nerlens in this draft. Noel does have tools that teams seem to want, even with the major question marks in the form of his lack of offense, incredibly skinny frame and preexisting injury. Draft sites do not make player rankings for NBA teams. I know he is #2 on the current big board, just know that he could legitimately slide down. He is not #2 on mine and I think taking him #1 would be an insane risk.
Still, after Cody being exposed at times and Len also dealing with an injury to go along with passivity, am not sure I would not take Nerlens as the first, or close to it, 4/5 on the board. Bear in mind, I am not even that big on him, the NBA apparently is MUCH more so. Which might explain why he remains at or close to the top of draft boards. If you actually have reasons why other players should be taken in front of him, particularly other guys 6-10+, than by all means state them. You may have a great point, though chances are they have some big time question marks as well, plus much lower ceilings as far as meriting a high pick in the draft. Len is actually the only player with a slightly higher ceiling and his athleticism is nowhere near Nerlens, plus he is coming off a stress fracture which sidelines him until possibly the beginning of training camp, or later.
Scare Crow, there is a difference between a big board and a Mock Draft. Complaining about Mock Draft placement, which is usually a projection of where NBA teams are actually going to draft players rather than basing it on where YOU may draft the player, blaming draft sites can be a losing battle. Think you should say, "why the F#ck do NBA teams want to take Nerlens Noel top 3?" I think it is going to happen, do not know why though I gave a few theories earlier on. I know you would have taken Brandon Knight earlier and Perry Jones in the lottery, just so happened that NBA teams thought differently. Now, if your big board has them higher and they turn out to do well, you could say, "I sure knew better than those guys". However, complaining about Mock Draft sites trying to make an accurate prediction of where players are actually going to be drafted is pretty counterproductive. Think you need to take your aggression out on the GM's/scouts these sites are getting their information from. Noel maybe should be slipping, just seems like the NBA's executives are the reason he isn't as opposed to the Mock Draft sites you claimed were to "scared" to drop him.
And once again someone ignores in their analysis the fact that Nerlen Noels is an injury prone player at this point. A 206 lbs stick figure who will have already missed two years with injuries to that same knee and leg is an injury liability. Regardless of tanking the season, how can a team risk paying huge $$$ to what may essentially be a throw away pick if things go wrong.
Guys, why has nobody brought up Greg Oden. That guy is HUGE. Oh and very injury prone. Noel is paper thin. And injury prone. How do you think that's going to fair and how good would a GM look if they take Noel and he runs down the same career path as Oden, and I'm not talking about the hype that surrounded Oden, just how his career has played out thus far.
While I am worried about Noel's injuries, he is not Greg Oden. He doesn't have uneven leg lengths and he isn't nearly so heavy. Him being so light may actually make recovering from a knee injury easier, because he is light on his feet and doesn't put as much weight on his joints as most big men.
I do think Noel is not as good a prospect as this draft's top perimeter players, but I am not sure what big men are better. Len may actually have more upside, do to his offensive skill level, but I question Len's motor and his lack of strength, while obviously not as severe as Noel, actually hurts his offensive game more due to his reliance on post play. Zeller has similar strength concerns to Noel, but without the length and athleticism to compensate. Team's will have to make their own judgments as to Noel's ability to recover physically, but on a basis of his game he is the top big man in this class.
My biggest problem with Noel is I didn't think he was much of a slam dunk prospect to begin with. He is extremely limited offensively, and defensiely, sure he's going to block shots, but he isn't going to be a great 1 on 1 defender at that size. Hell, Anthony Davis struggled to guard some NBA bigs one on one and he's bigger than Noel.
I know this draft sucks, but I find it hard to believe anyone is going to pick him No.1. I don't get this sudden fascination these past couple two years with extremely limited big men. Everyone basically gave Anthony Davis a pass for being mediocre as hell and injury prown his rookie season. Guys playing the 4 very rarely DOMINATE the defensive end to the point that it makes them a franchise player despite having little to no offensively ability. We love Larry Sanders, and Serge Ibaka, and Roy Hibbert, but those guys aren't going to be the cornerstones of championship teams.
Anthond Davis wasn't "mediocre as hell" as a rookie. Since 1946, there have been 17 rookies who appeared in more than 60 games with greater PERs than Davis had this season. And most of them are HOFers and all of them were older and more experienced as rookies than Davis. 13 and 8 as a 19-20 year old rookie is extremely impressive, no matter how you slice it. And those numbers are particularly impressive considering Davis is a late bloomer who is far from a finished product.
I think Noel is almost getting underrated now by some do to the backlash over him going #1. I would rank him below McLemore, Porter, and Burke as a prospect, but he is still very good. It is very hard to find big men who can run the floor and finish as well as Noel, and he has tremendous defensive ability.
Valid points, but I have 2 huge problems with Davis' rookie PER, and why I think it is deceiving:
1. He got most of his points on dunks and layups. When you are scoring mostly on those types of plays, and only averaging 13 points per game, its not that hard to be efficient. Davis shot 71% on those, 46% from 3-9 feet away from the hoop, 34% from 10-15 feet, and 31% from 16-23 feet. So he basically was inefficient on every thing except dunks and layups. So yes, his scoring was efficient, but its not that hard to take 11 shots a game, get a couple of alley oops and uncontested dunks, get a couple of put backs, and look efficient. He cannot shoot the ball. At all. From anywhere.
2. He was a good rebounder who played under 30 minutes a game. PER has ALWAYS favored good rebounders who play limited minutes. One of the first years Hollinger was doing PER for ESPN, Speights was like 14th in the league or something, because he was playing 18-20 minutes a game and crashing the glass.
PER is a good stat, and Davis has potential. But PER still leaves some things to be desired, and Davis was the beneficiery of a lot of it's flaws. He is still extremely limited offensively, and didn't make the Hornets a tad better than they were (So much for Larry Brown's "He could carry the Bobcats to the playoffs" prediction).
I just don't see what's so intriguing about another Sub-7 foot, rail thin, injury plagued, offensively challenged project which is what Noel is and thats a fact. If I was a GM I would need to ask myself the following questions... What does he do above average other than block shots???... Waiting... Pass and Steals you say? Do you see him ever averaging more than 3 apg or 1.5 spg in the NBA?? I Don't. Those are good numbers for a Center, but nothing that makes him the "Surefire number one prospect". Do you see him being any better a shot blocker than Larry Sanders? I don't think so. Now say for instance Noel does give you 3 bpg... The 20+ ppg he's going to give up to the Roy Hibbert's and Brook Lopez's due to the fact he weighs LESS than most SG's in the league will negate any blocks he gives you. This is in no way a "Bash Noel" post, but rather a "What the hell are GM's thinking considering this guy #1 in the first place???" post. I like Noel for what he is - A long body who can alter shots on the weak side and run the break. The same could be said about Stromile Swift and Tyrus Thomas coming out of college...
The BEST PROSPECT in terms of polish, potential, measurments, athleticism and intangibles in this draft class is clearly Ben McLemore in my eyes. No other prospect combines those five key elements better in my opinion. Even though that may not be as sexy a pick as a Center or a Point Guard, he's clearly the best player available.
The GM who drafts him #1 is going to get fired if Noel continues his injury prone ways. Especially since Noels has a track record of injuries with that left knee, missing one year of high school and now one year of college because of it. They will be laughed at much like the guys who picked Sam Bowie or Pervis Ellison.
I think this is the case of GM's buying into the hype from World Wide Wes and the media but that most of them would not want to pick him if they got the first pick because there is nothing safe about picking Noel.
There could be a separate thread about why McLemore shouldn't be the #1 pick either. Passive mentality, disappearing in big games, lack of ball skills, no iso ability, good shooter but percentages drop off when he's shooting on the move, no off-hand, average physical dimensions, good defensive tools but questionable defensive instincts and footwork (tested poorly in the agility drill). He doesn't have the injury risk that Noel has, but there's a risk that he's a super talented jump shooting guard who just wants to blend in.
Too scared? Why would they be scared? ACL injuries are big deals but then again, they're really not. Almost everyone seems to make it back all the way nowadays. If Noel fully recovers, he's an elite athlete who should be an elite shotblocker and very good rebounder. I'd say he's one of the safest prospects in the draft because even though he's only an one-way player, the things he does on defense translate to the NBA and he has the athleticism to transfer it.
There are a lot of future role players in the lottery this year. Getting a big man defensive role player is not a bad thing. Noel would not go no.1 most years but this is an uniquely bad year for the lottery.
Dude. ACL's are still big deals. Some guys don't get back the same athleticism. Derrick Rose has been out for over a year and still can't compete.
Noels has already missed one year in high school due to a broken growth plate in that same knee. Now he will likely be out for another year with the current injury.
There are serious concerns about that knee especially considering his manute bol like bone structure and frame.
I understand the concern about his weight but at the same time less weight to carry around until his knee regains strength isn't all bad either.
With the strength and conditioning coaches as well as nutritionists that will be available to Noel I'd think it's better for him to be too light rather than too heavy at this point in time..
He probably dropped a ton of weight during his rehab on purpose just to take pressure off the knee. I bet he can play at 235, which is going to be plenty big enough for PF or a small C. Remember we live in a time when Carl Landry plays C on a consistent basis.
There is no clear franchise player this year. Every player has question marks associated with their game on some level. That just is the nature of this draft class and in fact is common in most drafts once you get past the number one pick.
I like the theory that a team will take him as a means to tank an additional year and load him up with a stud from 2014 class. I bet a lot of GMs will tell you that that is the best strategy one can do.
I don't buy that theory. I don't think he'd be that big of a difference maker as a rookie even if he was completely healthy.
I don't get it either, but this draft seems so ridiculously weak that nobody is pushing him out of the way. The problem with this draft is there isn't a good 1-5. This draft has the players that would normally go 5-15 going 1-10.
Valanciunas got pushed around all year at 235-240 pounds. That's okay though because Anthony Davis got pushed around and showed to be warn down and injury prone, along with Larry Sanders but at the same time all three teams were alot better with those three players in the lineup disturbing the other teams with their defensive instincts, length, constant motors, willingness to bang (even if they lost most bouts), and by being pests inside. All three players understand they need to continue to add weight and are tremendously young players especially for the amount of contact within their roles. Noel is no exception and fits into this young group along with guys like Ibaka, and Henson.
Also just to note I don't believe Davis, Ibaka, or Sanders have the frame to add enough weight to be a true NBA Center.
But, he has that the potential to be a Young K -Mart type player. He will never score in the variety of ways(which says alot Kenyon Didnt have any offensive Moves), but he slashes, fills the lane and really cuts hard for points is on an elite level due to his length and foot speed. With the league so into this small ball open court game it will mask some of his offensive issues. I agree he is ranked high for someone who is injury prone, But for him to play the way he did in college, and still be hurt on the same leg it makes you wonder and know he is tough and works hard to health. Plus he had been hurt but still manage to have one of the low Body Fat counts in the draft. Which shows he still takes care of his body while injured.