share

Andre Igoudala is Overvalued

DefenseWinsChamps
DefenseWinsChamps's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/14/2010
Posts: 309
Points: 1025
Offline
Andre Igoudala is Overvalued

For a long time, Andre Igoudala has been one of my favorite players in the NBA. He is so versatile and impacts so many areas of the game. However, recently I looked through some regular and advanced stats on his game. He averages 9PPG on 46% FG and 35% 3FG. He gets to the line two times a game. He averages 4.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, with 1.7 TOPG. What he is best known for is his defense. 1.6 SPG and .3 BPG do not really tell the whole story of his great team and individual defense.

The problem I have is that, for a long time, Iggy's offense was just assumed. It was assumed he would find a way to get 15 PPG on the fast break, through slashing, and with his developed outside shooting. This year, that's not the case. It is obvious that on a team that needed him to score more, he would have higher numbers, but even on this team, I expected him to have at least 12-14 PPG.

Further looking at his advanced stats are even more interesting. His PER this year ranks 25, among small forwards, below the league average at 13.34, behind Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Omri Casspi, and Nick Young.

His Value Added ranks 23rd among small forward, behind Nick Young, Evan Turner, and Jeremy Evans.

His estimated wins added ranks 21st among small forwards, behind Evan Turner, Nick Young, and Jeremy Evans, and Demarre Carroll.

I look forward to when the new advanced stats are done at the end of this season and total defensive effectiveness is valued by numbers other than steals and blocks. Iggy's value will more easily be seen then.

I think Iggy is a great fit on the Warriors roster and I really like his game. But the Warriors committed to 13 Million a year for the next 4 years. And Iggy is already 30! I am just not sure that he brings 13 million dollars of value to this team, especially when Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green can both provide some of what Iggy brings to the table. Based on his estimated Wins Added, they are paying 5 million dollars for each win he adds to the team.


Memphis Madness
Registered User
Joined: 03/30/2011
Posts: 3567
Points: -1245
Offline
How does he do in different

How does he do in different lineups?

You would think a small ball lineup of Curry, Klay, Barnes, Iggy, and David Lee would be the way to go. Or, Bogut if interior defense counts for anything.

Thanks for digging all that up. Iggy is good, but not great. I haven't watched them much, so why aren't the Warriors clicking? Is it Iggy?

Iggy now has a sneaky bad contract.

runBruce
Registered User
Joined: 01/22/2014
Posts: 107
Points: 328
Offline
Iggy

Haven't payed him serious attention since his philly days, but I always felt like his numbers were hollow when he was here. I remember when he got the sixers for 6 years and $80 million....still haunts my dreams.

juves4783
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 848
Points: -674
Offline
i was pretty glad he decided

i was pretty glad he decided to leave the nuggs. for his price, we were able to get foye, nate rob and jj hickson. none are great, but neither was iggy. he was great as a perimeter defender but so is tony allen for a portion of the price.

the gm for golden st. should be questioned for the signing. they have a ton of money tied up to bogut, lee, iggy and curry to the point where keeping thompson and barnes seems less realistic.

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
No, he really affects the

No, he really affects the game in many ways you don't see in the boxscore. And really, judge defensive impact basing on steals and blocks per game is really superficial, especially now that we have some many advanced stats. I'll just list some of the way he contributes, then I'll post some of his stats.

1) He can guard basically anyone from 1 to 3 and some 4. The Warriors have not used him yet on point guards much, I think they want to save that option for the playoffs, by the way he's more than capable of doing that and it's really useful because allow them to hide Curry on someone else. They've had mostly Thompson on opposing PGs but I expect to see Iguodala guarding them in the post season, especially if they have to play against team with elite PGs.

2) He's basically an added playmaker and that allows Curry to play off the ball and come off screens. This is really important for two reasons: first, Curry is devastating coming off screens; second, he can save some energies playing off the ball instead of having to constantly create off the dribble.

3) He might not be the best offensive player in the league, but they already have 3 players more than capable of scoring 20 ppg, so they don't really need him to score much. But at the same time, he's not someone defense can happily leave unguarded, he shoots 39% from 3 in spot up situations per synergy sports, so he can punish defenses when he's open.

4) He's a smart player, doing a lot of other things, good passes, smart decisions, off the ball movement etc, with very few mistakes. 1.7 TO with 4.2 ast. Are you kidding me?

5) He's a high character guy and a hard worker who makes a team better as a group of individuals and while you might not see that on a box score or you can't appreciate it with your eyes during games is definitely something really valuable.

And just to post a few numbers, he's been vital for the Warriors, according to plus/minus. The Warriors outscore opponents by an amazing 13.1 points per 100 possessions margin when he's on (109.4-96.2), but opponents outscore them by 5.2 points when he rests (98.4-103.6). Warriors are 5-7 in games Iguodala has not played. Opposing SG have posted an awful 10.4 PER when he has guarded them and small forward a mediocre 12.1 PER.

So we can argue if it would be better if he was getting $11 million instead of 12, but it doesn't change much. There aren't many players able to impact the game in many ways like he does, on both sides of the court and without asking too much in terms of touches, plays and shots. In my opinion he's worth every dollar he gets. Scarce goods are expensive. Also, it makes me laugh reading Iguodala is overpaid when there are some people thinking Evan Turner deserves a $10-12 million contract (pretty much the same Iguodala gets). And really, in a league in which Eric Gordon gets $14 million per year, Josh Smith is launching bricks at $13.5 million yearly, Bargnani gets $11 million each year, Javale McGee earns $11 million every 12 months, Tyreke Evans makes $11 million each season, Omer Asik will make $11 million next year and probably his biggest contribution will be standing up to let starters seat and rest during timeouts, Larry Sanders makes $11 million to screw his season in bar fights... I mean with all those guys is really Iguodala's contract a problem???

DefenseWinsChamps
DefenseWinsChamps's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/14/2010
Posts: 309
Points: 1025
Offline
His PER is 13. Even if he is

His PER is 13. Even if he is holding SGs to 10.4 and SFs to 12.1, he really isn't giving his team a great advantage because of his own PER.

I agree that there are a lot of worse contracts in the NBA. The question is not whether or not Iggy's contract is worse than some of the terrible contracts you listed. The question is whether or not Iggy is overvalued for the wins he adds to his team. Just because there are worse contracts does not mean Iggy's contract is good, especially because he is older and locked-in longer than all of the other players you listed.

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
Again, the answer in my

Again, the answer in my opinion is no. PER underrates guys like Iggy because it doesn't take into accout defense beyond steals and blocks (and blocks and steals don't necessarily mean good defense). As far as how many wins he adds to his team I've already posted his plus/minus numbers (the best on his team) and the Warriors were 5-7 in the game he missed (though it has to be said they had a pretty tough schedule). I don't wanna make it sound like we were talking about LeBron, obviously Iggy is far from perfect. But there are just very few players contributing the way he does, probably only Batum comes to my mind and he has a very similar contract.

DefenseWinsChamps
DefenseWinsChamps's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/14/2010
Posts: 309
Points: 1025
Offline
Even if his defense is the

Even if his defense is the best in the NBA, and PER does not consider his defense other than steals and blocks, what about his offense? PER is a good estimate of a players offensive abilities. Iggy is more offensive versatile than some defensive stoppers, but is he worth 13 million for 4 years until he is 34 years old for only his defense? That is the point I am making. His defense is not in question and he does affect the game in a lot of ways that do not show up in the box score, but is 13 million a year (for an aging athlete who seems like his athleticism is declining) really a good value for a defensive stopper who has a 13.2 PER?

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
PER is a good measure of how

PER is a good measure of how efficient a player is as a scorer. If your teams doesn't ask you to score, especially if you're a perimeter player, it won't be really high (obviously it's different for a big, because they usually take a lot of close high percentage shots, so their fg% are higher+rebounds and blocks keep number higher). Other numbers clearly show that Iggy doesn't hurt them on offense, if any he makes them better. He's not asked to score, Curry, Lee, Thompson, Barnes, Crawford, even Blake all can do that, he's at best their 4th offensive option. As long as he shoots 39% on spot up 3s he's not hurting them and that's enough.

Also, he'll be 33 when his contract expires. Though it's not young, obviously, it's not that too old either for a basketball player, especially for a guy who still looks very athletic and who hasn't had big injuries problems. A reasonable prediction suggests he probably won't start his decline before his last year of contract. Again, I will be more concerned about Lee's deal, and the fact that the Raptors rejected a Lee-Bargnani trade this summer tells a lot about how easy it would be to get rid of his contract before its end (unless they already knew the Knicks were going to throw some first round picks for the hell of it). I reckon there will never be problems finding someone fond of Iggy. So I think he pretty much deserves every dollar he makes.

juves4783
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 848
Points: -674
Offline
so....you basically described

so....you basically described jarret jack, who signed for half as much.

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
Yeah, they're definitely the

Yeah, they're definitely the same player... Jarrett Jack is 6'3", pretty average on d (and certainly he can't guard 2s or 3s, let alone 4s) and he's a ball dominant guard who jacks tons of pull up jumpers. Totally the same player!

TheMOSTHATEDone
TheMOSTHATEDone's picture
Registered User
Joined: 04/17/2012
Posts: 93
Points: 257
Offline
Not overvalued

He is the type of player a high caracter coach like Popovich will like on his team, an inteligent X factor player. Warriors look pretty lost without him.

BothTeamsPlayedHard
BothTeamsPlayedHard's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 3437
Points: 4699
Offline
Do you want Golden State want

Do you want Golden State want to compete in the playoffs?

If so, then how far can they go if they don't have anyone who can guard an opposing team's guards/wings? It is really difficult to beat the Spurs or Thunder when you allow Tony Parker or Kevin Durant to do whatever they want. Steph Curry isn't going to guard anyone, and they need to be able to protect him on the other team's worst offensive perimeter player. And honestly, Iguodala is in the role he really should have been in for a long time, a fourth or fifth option. A team is much better off when only relying on Iguodala to take 6-10 shots per game, because he is a more valuable player than he is gifted offensive talent. Go through the past. Shawn Marion was much more valuable to the Mavs title than his numbers would have indicated. Neither Artest nor Ariza were valued to the two Lakers champion teams by their numbers. All of those guys have had bigger roles and better numbers at different points in their careers, but their optimum value on teams that were title contenders was much narrower. Championship teams aren't built by assembling individual stat lines. Sacramento, Minnesota, and New Orleans are assembling individual stat lines, and they are going nowhere. Fitting the strengths and weaknesses of the players is what matters, and the Warriors are much better positioned because of the moves they made to add Iguodala, Blake, and O'Neal. They don't bring it every night defensively like the Pacers, neither do the Heat or Spurs, but when they do and are healthy present themselves as a deep and formidable team.

fundamentalsforfun
Registered User
Joined: 04/30/2013
Posts: 23
Points: 50
Offline
iggy is misunderstood

there is currently a great article on him by Sports Illustrated that outlines how he is becoming so misunderstood by the casual fan becaue they only look at the stats and not his actual impact. As previously mentioned, the warriors are currently 36-18 when he plays and 5-7 when he doesnt, and he has the highest plus-minus ranking in the league, by more than a point per game. although he isnt putting up the stats he used to, he isnt required to anymore, and rather with bogut is playing as the defensive anchors of the team. The fact that you have steph curry and david lee on one of the top defensive teams in the league speaks of his ability to defend the perimiter.

I think the guy is the epitimy of a team player, sacrificing numbers and doing whatever is necessary for team success. although it might not look like it from PER ratings or wins added, his impact is undeniable and i see this as a great signing.

burgessfour
Registered User
Joined: 06/14/2010
Posts: 309
Points: 318
Offline
Iggy

As a Sixers fan I will say Iggy is a really good player.

The other side of it is, @ 12.9 million He's taking up 22% of Golden State's cap, that's too much IMO.

BothTeamsPlayedHard
BothTeamsPlayedHard's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 3437
Points: 4699
Offline
As opposed to Andris Biedrins

As opposed to Andris Biedrins getting $9 million, Richard Jefferson $11 million, and Brandon Rush $4 million? That money was baked in to whatever they did. Even if they let those contracts expire, they couldn't get a slightly lesser version of Iguodala with the savings, and they lose a year in the process. Curry and Lee got big money. They knew they wanted to extend Bogut. There isn't some vacuum where they can perfectly fit a contract and a role. You operate in the world that exists, and with the options that are available. They still have another year on the rookie scale for Klay and two for Harrison Barnes, which keeps their finances in line. Assuming they start looking for an heir to David Lee and Andrew Bogut, they are only going to have two years with five really expensive players, and a team in the Bay Market can afford to pay the tax now and then. They are filling their building with big market prices. There is no reason they should operate at a line that Indiana cannot afford to cross.

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
Exactly, you nailed it.

Exactly, you nailed it. People tend to consider players' value in a vacuum. Iggy is worth $9 million instead of 12. But reality is much more complex. Had they offered $10 million instead of 12 he probably wouldn't have signed. And if he doesn't sign with them, who could they get? Will he bring the same skills? If not, do those other skills fit in their system? Would you rather end up (slightly) overpaying a player who's a great fit and could definitely be very valuable to your team or instead losing him and pay the right price for a player your team don't need or at best doesn't change much?

There aren't countless players in each free agency. You have to deal with a limited number of possible options. Teams not getting the top players available usually end up still overpaying mediocre players just because they had cap space and they have to sign someone. You know, the teams that could not get Iggy this summer ended up giving 4 years, $32 million contracts to the likes of OJ Mayo or Brandon Jennings, or spending $27 million in 4 seasons for Carl Landry. That's what free agency it's all about.

Grandmama
Grandmama's picture
Registered User
Joined: 09/20/2009
Posts: 2237
Points: 4308
Offline
He's a top 5 wing defender,

He's a top 5 wing defender, and great playmaker and passer. He's never been a scorer. The only reason he ever averaged as many points as he did is because Philly had nobody else who could score. The Warriors don't need him to score either. Iggy is at best their 4th option on offense.

Ihateusernames
Ihateusernames's picture
Registered User
Joined: 01/23/2014
Posts: 339
Points: 390
Offline
He is a $13 million, older

He is a $13 million, older version of Michael Kidd Gilchrist with a better (still streaky) jumper. I cant believe Golden State stunted Harrison Barnes development to pay Igoudala who is not a player who will change where they stand in the championship picture.

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
MKG is a below average ball

MKG is a below average ball handler and passer for a wing, while Iggy is one of the best at his position. MKG can't hit jumpers at all, Iggy shoots 39% on spot up 3s. His overall 3pt% is lower because he handles the ball a lot and he had to take a lot of jumpers off the dribble late in the clock, mostly because Golden State's offense hasn't always been great, and that definitely isn't his bread and butter. But he's not one defense can leave open, while MKG...well his opponent could wait him underneath the rim and he still wouldn't be much of a threat

Jester87
Jester87's picture
Registered User
Joined: 06/13/2008
Posts: 448
Points: 705
Offline
Also, one thing you

Also, one thing you constantly hear is that Golden State hurt Barnes development signing Iguodala. That's mostly false. Barnes is playing pretty much as he played last year, he had a breakout during the playoffs because he had the chance, with Lee's injury, to play a lot at 4 in small lineups. There he has a big advantage over slower opponents. But playing at 3 he's been uninspiring even when Iguodala got injured and he started. So if anyone is holding him back that would be David Lee.

the I in win
the I in win's picture
Registered User
Joined: 11/28/2009
Posts: 2134
Points: 1562
Offline
You think Iggy lets LeBron

You think Iggy lets LeBron drop 61 on a crap ton of layups?

Rip255
Registered User
Joined: 11/30/2013
Posts: 500
Points: 824
Offline
Repeating what others said

This tells the story, even though i'm repeating what others are saying.

5 and 7 when he was out, 36-18 when he is in.

He's probably worth closer to the 8-9million range but he signed that contract at a time when GM's were throwing away money and were more prepared to pay the luxury tax.

And the MKG comparisons are a bit harsh, as no way can MKG handle the ball or pass like Iggy.

RSS: Syndicate content