The #47 pick and the Utah Jazz
Each of the last couple seasons Jazz fans have posted like crazy on this site. But this year has been different due to the Jazz only having one pick, and it being so low (#47).
Coincidentally the Jazz have picked at #47 twice in the last 2 years. In 2003 the team selected Mo Williams out of Alabama, and in 06 took Paul Millsap, proving that there is often value to be had in the mid-second round.
Can the Jazz strike gold with the #47 pick again? Unlikely, but considering the depth of this Jazz it certainly is possible. One key to drafting well in the mid 2nd round is to take he best player available rather than fill a need. Looking back at the past 10 drafts the only players drafted at #47 who ever had any NBA value are the two previously mentioned and Bill Walker. And it looks like picking after that, is about the same. Only about 1 in 5 players taken in the second half of the 2nd round are ever worth being on an NBA roster. So, drafting for need doesn't work. The Jazz would do well to just take the best player avalaible.
It's tough to figure out who might be available on draft night, especially at 47, but if any of the following players are available I would consider them carefully at 47.
1. Miles Plumlee - Wait, I know what you're thinking... THE JAZZ ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH BIG MEN!!! I know they do, but I think there is a very good chance that Jefferson gets moved this offseason. Most people believe it will be Millsap to go, but I don't feel that way. Millsap's work-ethic, demeanor, and drive are all qualities which management value. He's been with the team for 6 years, and the fans love him. I feel like Jefferson is the one to go with Kanter, Favors, and Millsap sharing the minutes at the 4 and 5. If this happens, the Jazz clearly need more size, and Plumlee provides that. He also provides surprisingly elite athletic numbers for a big, and he seems like a tough kid. Given all of these facts, it's unlikely that he'll be available at 47, but if he is, the Jazz would do well to pick him up.
2. Darius Johnson-Odom - The Jazz organization values toughness and the team needs shooting. Darius provides both. He's clearly undersized as a 2, but given the current NBA trends, his explosiveness and athleticism should make him at least a reasonable defender as a shooting guard. He seems like an ideal 10-15 minute a nice energy role player. For Jazz fans benefit, I can see him having the same sort of Energy-type roll as Ronnie Price had, only with a better jump shot, not as good a defender and (gulp) inferior point guard skills.
3. Scott Machado - A lot of Jazz fans are going to get on the Machado bandwagon before the draft. I don't know enough about him to develop an opinion. I'd rather have either of he above two guys, but if they're gone, Machado reportedly is one of the best two passing point guards in this draft, and that feels like a pretty good asset to get at #47. Hopefully he can develop a better shot and scoring game.
4. Jared Sullinger - This would be a MONUMENTAL drop for Sullinger, and though it's unlikely, it's not impossible. Sullinger already had a ton of question marks (too slow, too short), but the back injury could be potentially devistating to his draft status. DeJuan Blair was a guaranteed lottery pick who fell all the way to number 37 (and he was actually healthy). Again, I know it's unlikely that Sullinger will fall this far, but stranger things have happened.
5. Fab Melo - Like Sullinger, Melo is likely long-gone. But no one seems particularly high on him right now. That combined with what happened before the tournament last year seems to raise flags. In recent years if feels like theres a "1st round lock" center every year who falls into the second round. Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Jeremy Tyler, the list goes on and on.... again, unlikely, but something to watch for.
Who else might be available at #47 who is worth watching on draft night?
I read online they are very interested in Greg Mangano of Yale. I think he could be a nice player in the NBA. A 6-10 big man with the ability to block shots and shoot the 3 ball. He probably wouldn't get too much playing time alongside Favors, Jefferson, Milsap and Kanter but I think he can turn into a quality big man.
Here's where I found it.
In my mock I've had them taking a PG at 47 for some time now. Machado, Jordan Taylor, and Tu Holloway would all be good pickups. I'd love if they took DJO to replace Raja Bell at backup SG, he'd be productive off the bench. William Buford from Ohio State & Oregon State's Jared Cunningham are 2 other SGs who could fall to 47 since every year we see a run of international players taken over college guys that late.
We shouldn't draft another big man, we could just sign another veteran after Millsap or Big Al is traded for depth behind Favors & Kanter. But if Machado is still there they should grab him, he'll be a 2nd round steal for sure.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a draft day deal. I still think Millsap will be the one to go. The reason is because of his nice contract, and Jefferson's post offence which is rare. I would be surprised to see Lillard or Marshall end up on our roster with the trade.
Cody, Most people agree with you. I get that. I just don't agree. I also think giving up a proven 18-9 guy on a sweet deal like Millsap for Marshall would be crazy. Lilliard? Maybe, but I'd probably lean toward no. Marshall? Dfinitely no.
Its because he's expendable. Its Favors time to shine now. If it where for Marshall they would probably throw in another piece. Either one would be great to grow with our other young guys.
Andre Miller in a sign and trade, Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez and a future first for Millsap? Excuse my laziness, I haven't run this through the trade machine, just wondering what people saw Millsap's value as.
I like Chandler. But we wouldn't want old man Miller.
Threw him in to cover your need at PG. If I'm honest this deal would totally favour the Nugs, I love Millsap's tenacity and ability to score in a variety of ways. He would be huge for us.
Totally Agree with Favors. Completely.
But, like you might remember I said at the beginning of last season, we're best when Millsap is at the 3. If you keep Millsap and move Jefferson, you play Favors at the 4 for 30-35 minutes a night, and Millsap takes the 13-18 minutes at backup PF while playing 15-20 minutes at the 3. They you play Kanter at the 5, with Favors playing there some as well.
Now, I'll admit, this is where my idea has some holes. Kanter as the full time 5? Not probably a great idea. So clearly some of Favors minutes would have to be at the 5. In any case, Favors is the future at the 4 and Kanter is probably the future at the 5. So, who is more likely to be of value to the team going forward out of Millsap and Jefferson? Jefferson CANNOT play anything but the 5, and the entire team has to adjust their games offensively AND defensively to suit his game. Millsap on the other hand can play 3, as evidenced by the fact that the Jazz absolutely crushed teams when he played the 3 last year, and he can play the 4. He proved to effectively guard most 3's and it was clear that most could not guard him. He also has proven to be excellent against backup 4's.
Also, who do you want mentoring Kanter and Favors? The guy who comes to camp in shape every year, who has been underpaid his entire career, who always plays hard and has earned everything he's gotten, or the guy who admittedly has one of the best post games in the league, but comes to camp a little out of shape, stops the ball on offense, and can't guard anyone?
Don't get me wrong, I like Al..... but going forward Millsap has more value to the team...
Jefferson will be almost imposible to move and get equal value with his contract. Thats why we will move Millsap, he has more value. Its not that i like Jefferson more, it just makes more sence going forward.
Also I hate Millsap at the 3. It never worked durning the season or in game 4 against the Spurs. Can't shoot 3's well enough, isnt fast enough, and cant dribble well enough.
With Jefferson's post ability, and Favors post Deffence, they will be quite the duo. With Kanter coming off the bench in a bigger role.
If they move Milsap, how about Kyle O'Quinn. Favors could get the starter minutes he needs, you keep the gifted low-post scorer in Jefferson, and you'd still would have a rugged rebounder down low who can finish.