[high floorParticipant]

I was looking over the recent draft selections dating back to 2009, and previously there has been a lot of value after the first 8 selections. Naturally we’re all excited about the top of this years draft board, but history shows that exceptional players can be had past the first 8 selections:

2012 – Andre Drummond (Pick 9), John Henson (Pick 14) Terrence Jones (Pick 18)

2011 – Kemba Walker (Pick 9), Klay Thompson (Pick 11), Kawhi Leonard (Pick 15)

2010 – Gordon Hayward (Pick 9), Paul George (Pick 10), Eric Bledsoe (Pick 18)

2009 – Demar Derozen (Pick 9), Jrue Holiday (Pick 17), Ty Lawson (Pick 18)

There’s plenty of additional talent I didn’t list here as well. Since this draft is considered one of the deeper talent pools in recent memory, which players in your eyes have the best chance to exceed their selection? Could a future ‘Paul George’ or ‘Eric Bledsoe’ be had after the top picks are made?

[HomerKangParticipant]

 Yes.  This year, there will be many future stars after the obvious first 10 have been selected. 

Nick Stauskas, Cleananthony Early, Deandre Daniels, Russ Smith, Andre Dawkins, Melvin Ejim, Jabari Brown, Shabazz Napier, KJ McDaniels just to name a few. 

[jmarg25Participant]

 Andre Dawkins will surely be an NBA star… said nobody ever.

[jmarg25Participant]

 Andre Dawkins will surely be an NBA star… said nobody ever.

[HomerKangParticipant]

 Yes.  This year, there will be many future stars after the obvious first 10 have been selected. 

Nick Stauskas, Cleananthony Early, Deandre Daniels, Russ Smith, Andre Dawkins, Melvin Ejim, Jabari Brown, Shabazz Napier, KJ McDaniels just to name a few. 

[omphalosParticipant]

 If Lavine falls out of the first round he’s a good chance to be a star.

[tidhoParticipant]

I think he has a better chance if he’s selected in the late 1st by a good team.

Being selected to eventually fill Wade’s or Crawford’s role would be really good opportunities for him.

[tidhoParticipant]

I think he has a better chance if he’s selected in the late 1st by a good team.

Being selected to eventually fill Wade’s or Crawford’s role would be really good opportunities for him.

[omphalosParticipant]

 If Lavine falls out of the first round he’s a good chance to be a star.

[JoeWolf1]

 2011 in the teens and early 20’s was stacked.

In retrospect, look how many solid players were selected, with very few players not panning out.

11, Klay Thompson. 12, Alec Burks, 13, Markieff Morris. 14. Marcus Morris, 15. Kawhi Leonard, 16. Nikola Vucevic, 17. Iman Shumpert, 19. Tobias Harris, 22. Kenneth Faried, 24. Reggie Jackson

Those players are all playing major roles for their teams, and that kind of depth from 11-25 is insane.

Then throw in Motie at 20, who still has some major potential, and Nikola Mirotic has yet to come over, but could be a big pick up for the Bulls.

Really, in that range, only Nolan Smith and Chris Singleton have fallen short of expectations.

Then throw in Norris Cole at 28 Jimmy Butler at 30, and I seriously wonder, the next time we’ll see a mid-to-late 1st round that deep….certainly not this season.

[aramboneParticipant]

 I see it very differently. Even last year’s supposedly horrible draft had all kinds of talent outside the top 10.

I think youtube is having a big impact on basketball development worldwide. 

Dads and coaches have instant access to advanced coaching drills, philosophies, and alternative skill development techniques. And even the kids without good guidance can go online and greatly expand their basketball move vocabulary, and learn drills for mastering 10 types of crossovers, advanced footwork, and 10 different advanced post moves.

Not to mention nutrition, strength, jumping, and quickness drills.

I really think we’ve seen the end of terrible drafts outside the top 10.

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

I don’t think any of that changes the impact of the 2011 class’ mid-late 1st round depth. The Internet is a great tool for learning, but it’s not the end all be all. Especially since YouTube has been around for 10 years now, and the Internet, close to 25.

The draft has risks involved, and I don’t think kids watching mix tapes is going to eliminate busts in the 10-30 range. There is a lot of other factors involed and I still think year to year talent beats out Internet videos.

Last years’ 10-30 was much weaker than 2011’s class. We’ll have to wait and see to gather more than a season’s data, but rookie production for the 13′ class is pretty darn low comparatively.

[aramboneParticipant]

 It seems like it used to be a shooting guard would come out of college with good shooting touch but maybe form that needed work, with no offhand, with rudimentary ball handling ability and poor spacial awareness.

And then the prospect would get drafted and the team would hope that they could basically teach him the game of basketball. Much greater bust potential that way.

I think in particular the Kevin Durant story, and the brilliant coaching methods he was groomed with, have been a huge inspiration to dads, youth coaches, and the kids.

Durant’s mentor wouldn’t even allow Durant to play pick-up games because he didn’t want him to develop any bad habits. It was all about individual drills, individual skill development, and then putting it all together.

For me and most kids from the past, it was the opposite – play and play and play and play with little to know individual skill development, and tons of bad habits. Not to mention a much lower basketball vocabulary.

Durant’s mentor wasn’t the first to groom a player this way, and Pete Marovich’s dad was probably The pioneer, but Durant’s success in the internet era no doubt inspired countless dads, youth coaches, and kids who wanted to be like Durant.

Look at Saric and Kyle Anderson, the skill level from such a young age is just nuts. On my Celtics, Sullinger and Olynyk were raised by top youth coaches and they’ve had relatively complete games for years now.

Trey Burke’s ball handling mastery at 20 years old would have been almost unheard of 15 years ago.

Today’s prospects seem to simply be entering the league with a lot more development already under their belts than in the past, which raises their ceilings and decreases the bust likelihood.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

How we are here from me giving a shout out to the depth of the 2011 draft class is beyond me.

Every kid doesn’t have the luxury of a basketball mentor, many that do still fail. Tim Hardaway and AI were better ball handlers than Trey Burke as freshmen and they came of age 20+ years earlier. Anderson’s versatility is oft compared to Magic, who played in college in the late 70s. Dario Saric has been playing pro since he was 16, I think you’re taking a lot of liberties when claiming his skill is a result of the net.

The 2011 draft class has great depth. That doesn’t come around every day. For every skilled player of today, I can name his peer from 20 years ago. Of course technology has favorable impact, but it’s not the end all be all. Some kids develop the wrong way, sometimes a guy doesn’t have the head, sometimes he relies on physicality until he gets hammed by the big boys. I honestly don’t know how we’re here, but the 2011 class had great depth.

[aramboneParticipant]

Except Magic was the number 1 pick and his skill set so rare they called him Magic.

Saric and/or Anderson will fall out of the top 10, qualifying them for this conversation.

AI was drafted #1, Trey Burke outside the top 10.

I’m just saying there’s a much deeper pool of highly polished prospects outside the top 10 than there used to be. They are able to step into an NBA rotation from day 1, or soon after.

Which is why I say the era of weak drafts outside the top 10 is likely over. There’s just too many guys with a high floor that can stick with a team and be quality rotation guys if nothing else. Tons of them.

[aramboneParticipant]

Except Magic was the number 1 pick and his skill set so rare they called him Magic.

Saric and/or Anderson will fall out of the top 10, qualifying them for this conversation.

AI was drafted #1, Trey Burke outside the top 10.

I’m just saying there’s a much deeper pool of highly polished prospects outside the top 10 than there used to be. They are able to step into an NBA rotation from day 1, or soon after.

Which is why I say the era of weak drafts outside the top 10 is likely over. There’s just too many guys with a high floor that can stick with a team and be quality rotation guys if nothing else. Tons of them.

[JoeWolf1]

Again, other factors. Royce White was a multi position wiz who was a head case, Fab Melo and Cole Aldrich were too slow. Nolan Smith couldn’t put it together. It’s one thing to say the talent pool is getting stronger, but a huge leap to say the Internet has ushered in an era with very few busts.

Steve Nash was taken 15, John Stockton 16, Tony Parker 29, Kobe Bryant 13, Jermaine ONeil 17, Karl Malone 13, 

There’s gonna be weak drafts and strong ones, underachievers and overachievers. The 2013 draft will be considerably worse than 2011, 2008, 2003, 1996, and just about every draft since 2001. By your estimation classes should be getting better every year since the invention of the Internet. That’s not the case and a blanket statement IMO.

[JoeWolf1]

Again, other factors. Royce White was a multi position wiz who was a head case, Fab Melo and Cole Aldrich were too slow. Nolan Smith couldn’t put it together. It’s one thing to say the talent pool is getting stronger, but a huge leap to say the Internet has ushered in an era with very few busts.

Steve Nash was taken 15, John Stockton 16, Tony Parker 29, Kobe Bryant 13, Jermaine ONeil 17, Karl Malone 13, 

There’s gonna be weak drafts and strong ones, underachievers and overachievers. The 2013 draft will be considerably worse than 2011, 2008, 2003, 1996, and just about every draft since 2001. By your estimation classes should be getting better every year since the invention of the Internet. That’s not the case and a blanket statement IMO.

[aramboneParticipant]

There will still be drafts without superstars at the top, and maybe only role players in the entire top 10. But there will still be another 10-20 role players in the rest of the draft and undrafted.

The 2013 draft was chock full of rotation players outside the top 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft 

 

[aramboneParticipant]

There will still be drafts without superstars at the top, and maybe only role players in the entire top 10. But there will still be another 10-20 role players in the rest of the draft and undrafted.

The 2013 draft was chock full of rotation players outside the top 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_draft 

 

[aramboneParticipant]

 Of course there will always be busts, but the annual chorus of consensus opinion being "This draft is 4 deep, or this draft is 14 deep" will fade.

[aramboneParticipant]

 Of course there will always be busts, but the annual chorus of consensus opinion being "This draft is 4 deep, or this draft is 14 deep" will fade.

[aramboneParticipant]

The age minimum probably makes a big difference as well, since NBA teams are making much better informed decisions, limiting the number of busts.

[aramboneParticipant]

The age minimum probably makes a big difference as well, since NBA teams are making much better informed decisions, limiting the number of busts.

[JoeWolf1]

Time will tell, but you do realize there is no definitive evidence that drafts get better every year. In fact, the 1st year with the age min was considerably worse than the last two in which high schoolers were allowed, with the 03′ draft considered one of the best ever.

[JoeWolf1]

Time will tell, but you do realize there is no definitive evidence that drafts get better every year. In fact, the 1st year with the age min was considerably worse than the last two in which high schoolers were allowed, with the 03′ draft considered one of the best ever.

[JoeWolf1]

My 1st post was title "on a side note" and were so far off from there now. I acknowledge your opinion, but still disagree, but I think I’ve taken this as far as I care to today. 

The 2011 draft was deep 10-30

[JoeWolf1]

My 1st post was title "on a side note" and were so far off from there now. I acknowledge your opinion, but still disagree, but I think I’ve taken this as far as I care to today. 

The 2011 draft was deep 10-30

[aramboneParticipant]

“The 2011 draft was deep 10-30”. So was 2013. Maybe deeper.

MCW
Adams
Olynyk
Giannis
Bebe
Dieng
Plumlee
Hardaway Jr

And probably a few more quality rotation guys in addition. 2014 looks not too bad either.

[aramboneParticipant]

“The 2011 draft was deep 10-30”. So was 2013. Maybe deeper.

MCW
Adams
Olynyk
Giannis
Bebe
Dieng
Plumlee
Hardaway Jr

And probably a few more quality rotation guys in addition. 2014 looks not too bad either.

[JoeWolf1]

How we are here from me giving a shout out to the depth of the 2011 draft class is beyond me.

Every kid doesn’t have the luxury of a basketball mentor, many that do still fail. Tim Hardaway and AI were better ball handlers than Trey Burke as freshmen and they came of age 20+ years earlier. Anderson’s versatility is oft compared to Magic, who played in college in the late 70s. Dario Saric has been playing pro since he was 16, I think you’re taking a lot of liberties when claiming his skill is a result of the net.

The 2011 draft class has great depth. That doesn’t come around every day. For every skilled player of today, I can name his peer from 20 years ago. Of course technology has favorable impact, but it’s not the end all be all. Some kids develop the wrong way, sometimes a guy doesn’t have the head, sometimes he relies on physicality until he gets hammed by the big boys. I honestly don’t know how we’re here, but the 2011 class had great depth.

[aramboneParticipant]

 It seems like it used to be a shooting guard would come out of college with good shooting touch but maybe form that needed work, with no offhand, with rudimentary ball handling ability and poor spacial awareness.

And then the prospect would get drafted and the team would hope that they could basically teach him the game of basketball. Much greater bust potential that way.

I think in particular the Kevin Durant story, and the brilliant coaching methods he was groomed with, have been a huge inspiration to dads, youth coaches, and the kids.

Durant’s mentor wouldn’t even allow Durant to play pick-up games because he didn’t want him to develop any bad habits. It was all about individual drills, individual skill development, and then putting it all together.

For me and most kids from the past, it was the opposite – play and play and play and play with little to know individual skill development, and tons of bad habits. Not to mention a much lower basketball vocabulary.

Durant’s mentor wasn’t the first to groom a player this way, and Pete Marovich’s dad was probably The pioneer, but Durant’s success in the internet era no doubt inspired countless dads, youth coaches, and kids who wanted to be like Durant.

Look at Saric and Kyle Anderson, the skill level from such a young age is just nuts. On my Celtics, Sullinger and Olynyk were raised by top youth coaches and they’ve had relatively complete games for years now.

Trey Burke’s ball handling mastery at 20 years old would have been almost unheard of 15 years ago.

Today’s prospects seem to simply be entering the league with a lot more development already under their belts than in the past, which raises their ceilings and decreases the bust likelihood.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

I don’t think any of that changes the impact of the 2011 class’ mid-late 1st round depth. The Internet is a great tool for learning, but it’s not the end all be all. Especially since YouTube has been around for 10 years now, and the Internet, close to 25.

The draft has risks involved, and I don’t think kids watching mix tapes is going to eliminate busts in the 10-30 range. There is a lot of other factors involed and I still think year to year talent beats out Internet videos.

Last years’ 10-30 was much weaker than 2011’s class. We’ll have to wait and see to gather more than a season’s data, but rookie production for the 13′ class is pretty darn low comparatively.

[aramboneParticipant]

 I see it very differently. Even last year’s supposedly horrible draft had all kinds of talent outside the top 10.

I think youtube is having a big impact on basketball development worldwide. 

Dads and coaches have instant access to advanced coaching drills, philosophies, and alternative skill development techniques. And even the kids without good guidance can go online and greatly expand their basketball move vocabulary, and learn drills for mastering 10 types of crossovers, advanced footwork, and 10 different advanced post moves.

Not to mention nutrition, strength, jumping, and quickness drills.

I really think we’ve seen the end of terrible drafts outside the top 10.

 

 

 

 

[JoeWolf1]

 2011 in the teens and early 20’s was stacked.

In retrospect, look how many solid players were selected, with very few players not panning out.

11, Klay Thompson. 12, Alec Burks, 13, Markieff Morris. 14. Marcus Morris, 15. Kawhi Leonard, 16. Nikola Vucevic, 17. Iman Shumpert, 19. Tobias Harris, 22. Kenneth Faried, 24. Reggie Jackson

Those players are all playing major roles for their teams, and that kind of depth from 11-25 is insane.

Then throw in Motie at 20, who still has some major potential, and Nikola Mirotic has yet to come over, but could be a big pick up for the Bulls.

Really, in that range, only Nolan Smith and Chris Singleton have fallen short of expectations.

Then throw in Norris Cole at 28 Jimmy Butler at 30, and I seriously wonder, the next time we’ll see a mid-to-late 1st round that deep….certainly not this season.

[TyroberParticipant]

The #9 pick seems to be lucky. I wonder if that streak will end since the Cavs have it this year.

[tidhoParticipant]

Dear Tyrober,

You suck.

    – Cleveland.

btw, old GM is gone.  Whatever folks believed about the picks from the last few years is irrelevant.

[tidhoParticipant]

Dear Tyrober,

You suck.

    – Cleveland.

btw, old GM is gone.  Whatever folks believed about the picks from the last few years is irrelevant.

[Kevin6CDParticipant]

probably will end, because incompetence usually trumps luck. 

[Kevin6CDParticipant]

probably will end, because incompetence usually trumps luck. 

[jmarg25Participant]

 They haven’t decided the order yet, lottery is in May.

[jmarg25Participant]

 They haven’t decided the order yet, lottery is in May.

[TyroberParticipant]

The #9 pick seems to be lucky. I wonder if that streak will end since the Cavs have it this year.

[hoopsfanatic7Participant]

TJ Warren
Adreian Payne
PJ Hairston
Elfried Payton

[hoopsfanatic7Participant]

TJ Warren
Adreian Payne
PJ Hairston
Elfried Payton

[HomerKangParticipant]

 Not really sure what the strange love affair with Zach Lavine is, but he’s gonna be the biggest bust in this draft. 

[HomerKangParticipant]

 Not really sure what the strange love affair with Zach Lavine is, but he’s gonna be the biggest bust in this draft. 

[SmooveKRYPTParticipant]

 Kyle Anderson

[SmooveKRYPTParticipant]

 Kyle Anderson

[Author]

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