[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I think we can put next year’s top NBA teams into tiers. I know Dwight Howard hasn’t done anything yet, but I will try to group the teams into tiers anyway. If he goes to the Nets they will obviously improve but their bench will still be a question mark. If he goes to the Lakers they will improve somewhat but not too much, they will still be a top tier team.

Tier One — Legit Title Contenders

Miami Heat — bringing everyone back (if Mike Miller stays) along with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Justin Hamilton is a rookie big man who figures to add depth at the center spot. The Ray Allen signing was one of the bigger signings, but he would work best with D Wade and LBJ in the game slashing, posting up, and creating offense and space. I am not sure that they can have Ray Allen AND D Wade/Lebron combo on the court at the same time. Wade and Allen are both shooting guards, and it might not work unless they go even smaller with a point guard, Allen at the 2, D Wade at the 3, and LeBron at the 4. The Celtics were great for Ray Allen because they moved the ball well. Let’s see if they move the ball better with Ray Allen (plus Rashard Lewis) on board. The most important thing is that D Wade and Bosh have a full offseason to get healthy. If Chalmers and Cole continue to improve, if Shane Battier continues to shoot well from 3, and if Mike Miller comes back then I really like the Heat’s chances to repeat. A Ray Allen off the bench giving Miami 10-12 points a game off the bench on great shooting from everywhere would be icing on the cake.

Oklahoma City Thunder — knee issues aside, Perry Jones is looking pretty good. He gives the Thunder another scorer/athlete at the forward spots. He is also a threat to block shots. He gives the Thunder a potentially freakish young explosive athletic lineup of Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Durant, Perry Jones, and Serge Ibaka. Then you have Eric Maynor coming back, Reggie Jackson looking good in summer league, along with the addition of Hasheem Thabeet, who has so far been a bust but he is tall, long, and can block shots. He is basically a younger, taller version of Nazr Mohammed. Not a scorer, but he can dunk and clog up the middle and will be good for 6 fouls a game.

LA Lakers — not much depth here, but they have a loaded starting unit. Nash, Kobe, and Andrew Bynum are all near the top at their respective positions, and look for Pau Gasol to bounce back an have an all-star type year. MWP could also be energized and can defend pretty much any position on the court. He can also rebound some ad is not a bad 5th or 6th scoring option. Their bench could use more help, but Steve Blake can shoot and handle, Ebanks and Matt Barnes give some depth on the wing, and Josh McRoberts has good size and athleticism. I think Nash will make those guys look better. I like the Robert Sacre pick as a backup 5. Andrew Goudelock is the wildcard here. If he turns it up they could have a solid backup to Kobe. They could use a defensive point guard and Jeremy Pargo should be available. He is limited offensively (think drive first, drive second) and has limited vision, but he is a good athlete, a good defender, and has solid build. Could be a great third point guard who might cost the Lakers only $500,000 cash and a second round pick.

Boston Celtics — the Celtics are back for one more run. They lose Ray Allen but get perhaps a better fit in Jason Terry. Ray has a pure stroke but he battled injuries and had some shooting slumps last year. Ray is taller, but Jet can play both guard spots. Terry is also an ideal sixth man who doesn’t mind coming off the bench. He can play behind Avery Bradley (a healthy AB could put the C’s over the Heat in next year’s ECF) at the 2 or Rondo at the 1. Love their draft picks too. Sully looks great, and Fab Melo is tall and can block shots. Don’t forget about Jeff Green either who can play either forward spot and gives Boston some depth behind Paul Pierce.

Tier 2 — Contenders/Dark Horse Teams

I think there is a drop off between the Tier 1 teams and the Tier 2 teams. Even so, these teams can all make a run and could end up in the Finals if things go their way.

San Antonio Spurs — they may start out slow, but the Spurs are bringing everyone back. Look for them to continue to limit Duncan’s minutes and I can see them picking their spots so they might not win as many games as other Tier 2 teams but this team is still talented, deep, well-coached, and disciplined.

LA Clippers — they have Chauncey Billups coming back, plus they picked up Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford. Are these guys too old? That remains to be seen, although I think they will miss Nick Young and Reggie Evans. Foye and K-Mart might not be back either. But, they still have CP3 and Blake Griffin so they figure to be in the mix out West and should contend for the third seed.

Memphis Grizzlies — they didn’t do too much this offseason, but they added Bayless who can score, shoot some, and also play some point guard. Tony Wroten comes in as a big guard. He can pass, handle, and slash, and could be a steal. If Z Bo gets back to 100% then the Grizzlies will be right there. If they can add another shooter or two this is one of my favorite dark horse teams. Inside scoring, Rudy on the wing, Tony Allen defending everybody, Conley at point, plus a solid bench with Bayless, Mo Speights, Wroten, Q-Pon, Darrell Arthur (when he gets back), and Dante Cunningham makes Memphis one of a few teams with some of everything. No real holes here if they can add some cheap shooters.

Indiana Pacers — a young, up and coming team that should contend for the 3rd seed in the East. I think if they had a backup to Roy Hibbert that they could have taken the Heat to 7 games and perhaps even won the series. They added Miles Plumlee who is big, a great leaper, and a good rebounder. Should add some more toughness up front, and a solid role player at the 4/5. It looks like Courtney Lee is coming too. He is a good 2 guard who can shoot, slash, and defend. I like this team.

Brooklyn Nets — D-Will, Joe Johnson, and Gerald Wallace is on board. If they can also get Dwight Howard then they might be the fifth best team next year. They will be a bigger threat but they still lack depth. I like Reggie Evans as a backup rebounder at the 4 spot in 15-20 or so minutes a game. I like him less though as a starter. If they could get another 4 man to go along with Dwight they would be better off. Tyshawn Taylor could be a solid backup point guard which could help. Adam Morrison might be their shooter off the bench. If he can find his shot and his confidence then he could be the long shot pick for the Most Improved Player award. If they don’t get Dwight, they will have Brook Lopez inside as a scoring/non-rebounding big. A downgrade, but he will still have the Nets in the playoff hunt. Kris Humphries could also be back as a rebounder/most hated man in America for the Dwight-less Nets.

New York Knicks — the Knicks are making some noise. That should translate into some wins next year. They look like a playoff team on paper and we could be headed for a Knicks-Nets subway series in a 4-5 first round matchup. Carmelo is one of the best centers in the league to go along with Amare and Tyson Chandler inside. Jeremy Lin is back with the ageless (the Knicks are keeping their fingers crossed) Jason Kidd backing him up. If Shumpert comes back healthy then they have a solid young 2 guard who can play defense. Novak is back as the designated deep threat, with Camby coming back to New York as a reserve center.

Chicago Bulls — Derrick Rose will be out for a while. Possibly until February. Without him they should struggle but should stay around .500 with their defense, depth and coaching. Look for Luol Deng to put up another all-star type season when he gets back from injury. The Bulls are also hoping that Noah gives them a lot at center, and Booz comes back strong. They are counting on Teague and Hinrich to help at point guard until Rose comes back. If he can be 100% for the playoffs they should be ok. But, I still think they lack the great second option that all the great Tier 1 teams have.

Tier 3 — Fringe Playoff Teams/Sleepers

These teams are a notch below Tier 2 teams. Look for these teams to contend for the last few playoff teams and give a higher seed fits in the first round if they get in.

Philadelphia 76ers — not sure who they will role out next year, but they are well-coached and play good defense. They are deep and should have another nice season especially if they keep Iggy or get an upgrade there and if Moe Harkless and Arnett Moultrie play well. Louis Williams is gone but they have some other guards that can fill in for him. Spencer Hawes is a legit option at center when healthy. Look or them to get a lower playoff seed (possibly as high as 6) and then give a higher seed fits in the first round.

Denver Nuggets — youth and speed kill. So the Nuggets will always have a chance if they can make the playoffs. Look for them to get the 7th or 8th seed this season. Gallo is a good forward who can score, Lawson is a speed demon and an above average point guard, Aflalo is steady, and Kenneth Faried is a beast on the boards. If they can keep Javale McGee they have a nice young center who could contend for the blocks title. Andre Miller offers some good passing, facilitating, and veteran savvy off the bench.

Minnesota Timberwolves — the popular pick to sneak into the playoffs out West. Kevin Love is a legit all-star now and could show up to training camp with a gold medal around his neck. If Rubio stays healthy those two alone are worth some wins. Derrick Williams looks to bounce back for his NBA sophomore year. They also added Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy at the wing. Those two will help.

Utah Jazz — a bunch of bigs, Gordon Hayward on the wing, plus the addition of Mo Williams as a scoring point guard. I think it will come down to Utah and Minny for the final playoff seed. I think the T Wolves take it, but the Jazz should be pretty good again, and will make a solid push.

Toronto Raptors — maybe this is their year. If Dwight leaves Orlando for Brooklyn or a team out West, the Raptors could sneak in as an eight seed. Jonas Valencunas might come over and he looks promising. Bargs can shoot and score, and Demar DeRozan can dunk. Terrence Ross might have been a head-scratcher at 8 in the draft but he gives the Raps a shooter. Calderon and the newly acquired Kyle Lowry are a good duo at point guard. They might come out flat, and sink from there, or they could come out strong and contend for an eight seed.

Orlando Magic — obviously they would be better with Dwight Howard, and if they can’t get enough in return for him in a trade then Dwight might stick around for awhile. If they can get some youngsters from the Rockets then I think they could be a wild card team. Nelson, Reddick, and Big Baby are solid. Andrew Nicholson is looking good in summer league. Justin Harper should be ok. So if they can add ANYTHING in return for Dwight Howard they have an outside shot at an 8th seed in a relatively weak Eastern Conference. If they end up with Brook Lopez and some of the Nets’ junk I think he would give them enough (scoring) inside for them to be ok.

Tier 4 — Close (or not that close) but no Cigar/Late lotto teams

Dallas Mavericks — it is almost sacrilegious to count out Dirk but we may have to. They lost a lot and it doesn’t exactly look like that this off-season is going the way that Mark Cuban had hoped. Even if they can get to .500 that still might not be enough for the 8th seed.

Sacramento Kings — on paper this team looks loaded. Cousins, Tyreke, T-Rob, Isaiah Thomas, and Jimmer have talent. Will they figure it out though? Look for them to be better but still miss the playoffs. Things are looking up in Sacto.

Golden State Warriors — if they can mesh well and stay healthy this might be the biggest wild card team of the Tier 3 teams. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have great firepower with scoring skills and great three-point shots. Harrison Barnes looks like a good option at the 3 — this might be an ideal fit for him. Bogut is good when healthy. David Lee can score/board when healthy. Biedrins can rebound — again, when healthy. Festus can block shots and Draymond Green gives the Warriors versatility, leadership, and intangibles off the bench. He should also help them with rebounding passing, and gives them another scoring threat.

Houston Rockets — a bunch of young guys plus Luis Scola and Kevin Martin. Should be good for some wins. They could win 40 games with that group — or 30 games (or less). Who knows? If they can end up with Andrew Bynum I would put this team in the playoffs as a Tier 2 team.

Milwaukee Bucks — an explosive backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis will be good for some wins by themselves. The top of the East looks great, the middle/bottom of the East not so much, so I think a high-octane Bucks team can pick up some wins and be a challenger for the 8th seed, although there are a few better contenders for that spot. Illysova is back. He is a good one. They also added John Henson to the Charles Jones all-stars (6’9 skinny big men who can block shots, do little else, and often play out of position at the 5) along with Larry Sanders, Epke Udho, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (more of a defense/rebound guy than a shot blocker though). If Dunleavy is the best option at the 3 then the Bucks might not have enough firepower outside their Monta/Jennings core.

New Orleans Hornets — they have the talent — on paper — of a contender for the 8th seed, but it might take a little while for Anthony Davis to really warm up and hit his stride. Rivers is a combo guard who might be forced to play some point if the disgruntled Eric Gordon returns. Ryan Anderson is on board as a 6’10 shooter and rebounder. He is more of a 4 but he could play the 3 with AD at the 4, or they can go small with Davis at the 5 and Ryan Anderson as a stretch four. Jason Smith is an active, tough big with more talent than he is given credit for. GV is a good combo guard off the bench and Jarrett Jack is a servicable point guard. If things go perfectly the Hornets could make a run at the 8th seed. On paper, a small-ball Jarrett Jack/GV, Austin Rivers, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and Anthony Davis has lots of potential.

Phoenix Suns — things are looking up a bit in Phoenix. Goran Dragic can ball, and Beasley can score. Doubt they get Eric Gordon though. Grant Hill is hanging it up, but Gortat, Jared Dudley, and Markieff Morris should keep the Suns respectable. Kendall Marshall was a solid draft pick who adds passing and will give them a good floor general off the bench. If Channing Frye can pick it back up this team could be closer to the top of the Tier 4 class.

Portland Trailblazers — LaMarcus Aldridge is a very good player. Batum will probably be back as a solid small forward. Wes Matthews is there too along with some nice draft picks in Lillard, Meyers Leonard, and Will Barton. Should win somewhere between 30 and 40 games next year.

Atlanta Hawks — I doubt they make the playoffs but they shouldn’t be abysmal either. They still have Josh Smith and Al Horford will hopefully be healthy. John Jenkins is their rookie and he can shoot. Anthony Morrow came over in the Joe Johnson trade and he can shoot too. Jeff Teague is quick and can score. Ditto with new arrival Louis Williams. Hopefully one of those two guys can run the offense. They don’t have much depth inside outside ZaZa Pachulia (who is actually solid as a backup center), and it might take awhile for their pieces to fit. I don’t seem them making the playoffs but they could make a run — you never know. I don’t see them being one of the worst teams out there, they look more like a 30ish win team that is in semi-rebuilding mode.

Tier 5 — Cellar Dwellers/Contenders in the Zeller/Noel/McAdoo Sweepstakes

Washington Wizards — look for them to improve with some veterans they got from New Orleans along with rookie shooting guard Bradley Beal. But they are still a couple of pieces and a couple of years away from even think about truly competing for a playoff spot.

Detroit Pistons — Greg Monroe is a steadily improving big man. As a center he is one of the better ones in the business. If he has a great year and if Dwight Howard goes west, then Greg Monroe could actually make the all-star game. Austin Daye looks pretty good in the summer league games so he should be a good small forward on a LONG front line.

Cleveland Cavaliers — I like Kyrie Irving. He should have another good year with an outside shot to make the all-star team if his Cavs play better and if Rose misses the ASG with his injury. I wish he would pass more, and while I like Tyler Zeller I am not yet sold on Dion Waiters. TT had a solid rookie year and should be better this year, but I am not sure how high his ceiling is.

Charlotte Bobcats — this team will be bad again, but probably not historically bad. Somewhere between 10 and 20 wins sounds about right. 25 if everything goes the right way and if the hit a hot streak or two. I like MKG a lot and should make a run at the ROY. I think Kemba and Biyombo will improve over last year. They still can’t score that well but hustle, defense, and rebounding can keep any team in practically any game. Their new coach is known for defense and should shake things up. Byron Mullen gives them a decent center, while Ben Gordon gives them a veteran scorer/chucker.

[MikezParticipant]

Kyrie passed a decent amount of times, his teammates just didn’t score

We need an assist ratio stat

[akhan786Participant]

I remember reading a stat on this and Ricky Rubio’s team assist ratio (the percentage of assists he has compared to the team) was something like 36% and Kyrie’s was 34%.

So not that far off. If you watch as many games as I did of the Cavs last season you would pull your hair out at how many times guys like Jamison, Parker, Ryan Hollins, Semih Erden, Omri Casspi (pretty much the whole team) missed wide open shots that Kyrie set up for them.

There were times when Kyrie was running with a lineup of him, Boobie Gibson, Casspi, Hollins, and Erden…

LOL

[Professor RozayParticipant]

He did pass the ball a decent amount the problem was that he did not have a good big man to play pick and roll with  because dudes could not finish at the rim. Also he had dudes that were not consistent oustside shooters. So they did not help him out at all. In saying that he rank 60 among PG with a 1.72 A/T ratio.

[fgrrghgParticipant]

 the raps in tier 3 and the hawks in 4.. come on man. I know they lost JJ and marvin but lou williams should come in and provide some of the scoring they’re losing with Johnson. They’ve got anythony morrow to help space the floor and devin harris as a backup PG isn’t too shabby. Plus horford is healthy again. 

I just don’t see the hawks slipping that much

[fgrrghgParticipant]

 and i think the spurs should be tier 1. They absolutely dominated the league until they lost 4 straight to the thunder (3 super close games). Bringing everyone back i’m pretty sure, plus another year of improvement from splitter and leonard. Although they are getting old so if you are expecting a lot of decline I can kind of understand tier two

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

^^^^

Great points! Yeah, I might need to look at Kyrie Irving’s passing stats in relation to his assist/turnover ratio. But I saw him basically take a bunch of three’s (that hit nothing but the bottom of the net) in the Rising Stars Game and his highlights of him shooting during that pro-am game that I saw in that link yesterday. I think he has some better targets this year with Tyler Zeller inside and Dion Waiters at the other guard spot.

You know, I made my tiers up and the last team I put in were the Hawks. I even thought, why do I have them behind the Raptors? But, the Hawks don’t have much size off the bench. I think their pieces will eventually fit but it might take awhile. I said they will win 30ish games this season. If so they could win about the same number of games as the Raptors. I went with the Raptors a little bit higher since I am expecting Jonas to come over and I think he will do pretty well. Bargs is pretty good and I like the Kyle Lowry/Jose Calderon point guard combo. DeRozan and Ross can shoot, and they also added Landry Fields as a solid role playing wing who can rebound (I actually forgot to mention him in my writeup). I like the Raptor’s depth more, and I think it will take the Hawks awhile to integrate Jenkins, Morrow, and Louis Williams with ISO Joe gone. How will Josh Smith react to being the main go-to guy? The Raptors have better depth inside and better point guard play so I give them an edge, although a lot of this is due to my belief that Jonas helps out the Raptors and makes an impact. If he comes over and doesn’t do much, then this will probably change.

… I have the Spurs team in Tier 2 because they lost four straight to the Thunder in the conference finals, didn’t add anything, and are a year older. Their defense slipped a bit last year, and I am not sure if their role players will play as well as they did last year. I do expect a great year from Kawhi Leonard but TP could fall back somewhat. I just think that the Celtics have more depth and more youth at point guard, and more youth off the bench, plus better overall team defense. The Lakers don’t have much depth but they do have two all-stars inside in Bynum and Pau, Kobe is still Kobe, and Steve Nash should be able to make the whole thing run smoothly while giving them an outside shooting threat. OKC has a younger big four with Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka, and once they figured out the Spurs they kicked their butt. They also added Perry Jones who should help and Maynor is coming back. The Heat are the defending champs and added Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and a rookie center.

I think the Spurs are closer to the LA Clippers who have Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Caron Butler, and some other solid veteran types (Lamar Odom, Chauncey Billups,and Jamal Crawford). They also have Bledsoe, a guy I like. If the Grizzlies can get Z Bo back to 100% then I like them (with Bayless and Tony Wroten coming in and OJ Mayo going out plus Darrell Arthur also back from injury) in a potential second round matchup with the Spurs. The Grizzlies beat them in 2012 without Rudy Gay and still present a matchup problem for San Antonio.

My Tier 1 teams are basically my picks to make the conference finals with a legit shot to win a title. Miami and Boston in the East and OKC and the Lakers in the West. I think all four teams are a bit better than the Spurs. But, I still basically have them in fifth place although I think they are more of a dark horse team than a clear favorite to win the title. But, the Spurs really do like flying under the radar.

[HadzialijagicParticipant]

Pistons will not be cellar dwellars I guarantee that. They finishe the season going 21-21 over their last 42. Not to mention they turned Gordon into maggette. Got Drummond. Got singler. Got their first real offseason with their coach and got another year for their young players to improve. 

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