[jjj10manParticipant]

(late) 1st round picks went from undervalued way over valued real fast. I remember when Marco Belinelli got traded for the 22nd pick, now people weren’t willing to give up a first for Tyreke Evans who is averaging 20-5-5 in 31 minutes shooting 39% from 3 now. 

?? last time I checked only one team drafted Kyle Kuzma last year, one team drafted Dejounte Murray and Skal in 2016, and these players are by no means superstars. Look at the rest of the late first round drafts these players usually fizzle out like always, but now all of a sudden the 27th pick is gold. Maybe has do do with less money being thrown around so people want rookie contracts?

But if your a team like the Warriors who look like the Thunder’s athleticism can give them serious problems, how do you now move that "golden" 30th pick for a better Center?

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 I don’t disagree with you, but there are a lot of mitigating factors here. The main one is how role players were way over-payed over the last few seasons. 

With so many teams cap-strapped, having a cost-controlled player on a minimum of 4 years, and possibly as many as 8-9 years, is extremely valuable. 

I’d rather have Kuzma for 4 more years than Evans on an expiring. I’d rather have Murray for 3 more years than Evans on an expiring. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jjj10manParticipant]

 Yea, that’s what I thought, but to my understanding that 2016 money will start to come off the books in 2020 (only 2 years from now).

Also the point is you are not likely getting Kuzma for 4 years over evans. You’re likely getting Anzejs Pasecniks over evans on an expiring. 

 

 

[cohenbc1Participant]

I agree with you that a late first-round pick is most likely not a regular-rotation guy in the NBA. A known quantity that can help you is more valuable (salary considerations aside).

But the idea that "the Thunder’s athleticism" is going to trouble the Warriors? That’s just funny.

 

[HitsterParticipant]

Contenders with a late first rounder probably the Spurs excepted would often move it to get a proven player in for the rest of that year. This rationale was that if proven player gave them a better chance that season then giving up a late pick is well worth it.

Also contenders will often naturally attract guys on veteran minimum which is part funded by the NBA and contracts are cheaper than late first round ones. These players are proven role players who a team knows can give them 20 mpg when required but can sit out also without needing development. It may seem a bit short sighted but teams are win now.

[MopgrassParticipant]

 Like most everybody, I agree.  I also agree it’s a money issue: smaller contracts for longer. But it’s also gambling. Teams would rather gamble. They’ll all seemingly take that 10% chance (or less) that they’re drafting Kuzma at the end of the 1st. Everyone wants to roll the dice. Most GM’s aren’t around long enough for the team to fully the consequences of their actions. 

[OhCanada-Participant]

The only teams think they may have a shot at competing with the Warriors are Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, San Antonio, Minnesota and OKC.  Cleveland cant move the Brooklyn pick without a return 1st round pick because of the Stepien rule the rest of these teams have traded thier 1st round picks but Boston and San Antonio.

 The Celtics have a bright young core and Hayward returning from injury so they are in no hurry. The Spurs have similar injury concerns and may believe they need picks to continue retooling. Thats why nobody traded a 1st round pick for an Evans type player or a rental at the deadline. Picks were gone for the teams wanting to make a push and Boston and San Antonio decided to be patient.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Pelicans traded a 1st for Mirotic but that was more of a desperation move due to Cousins injury. Demps trying to not get fired.

[r377Participant]

 Draft picks have always been overrated – espcially when teams draft on "potential" – Vonleh, Perry Jones, Exum, Isaac etc.

Who remembers when Danny Ainge was going to trade 3 or 4 assets/players/picks just for WCS ?

 

Draft picks are like new cars – everyone wants one but as soon as you had it, it loses value straight away…

 

 

 

[r377Participant]

 I always compare value of previous picks vs future draft pick.  eg the 16th overall pick in this years draft for the 16th overall pick in previous drafts.  Last year is still a bit too early but lets use 2016 and 2015 draft. 

Late picks 16-30

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2016.html

Most GMs would keep this years pick. Possibly Levert, Skal and Murray might have more value.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html.

Most GMS would keep this years pick.  Maybe Rozier, RHJ, Wright, Portis and Nance might have more value.

So 8 from 30 picks MIGHT have more value. Thats less than 30%

These names are questionable, i am sure there would be some GM’s who would still take this years draft pick over these names.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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