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1st Overall' Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic?

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1st Overall' Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic?

Two very good prospects at the top of this year. Gotta be honest I would hate to have to choose between these two. On one side you have Ayton who is a freak of nature physically and athletically that will come into the league able to space the floor and with good hands. On the other side you have Doncic who has already won every individual and team award in the best form of competitive basketball the world had to offer him as he was not yet eligible for the NBA. Tough decision.

Lets start with Ayton.

First of all I really dont think people know what type of player they are getting with him. He has Deandre Jordan and Dwight Howard's size and athletic abillity but he does not anticipate shots and protect the rim like those two. Just doesnt seem to be in his nature. Ive seen him get compared to Embiid offensively but he doesnt look to create his own shot much and struggles getting decent post position. Aytons true value offensively is in his shooting, his touch, his hands, and his footwork/coordination but at this stage of his development in order to be successful he needs to be put in pick and roll and pick and pop situations because he struggles with his positioning and his ballhandling. Rebounding will also be a srength as he seems to be a guy that will average 10+ rebounds throughout his career.

To me he can develop into a player like Lamarcus Aldridge but with freak athletisism. Great hands, touch and shot but not a guy you expect to put the ball on the floor. Decent defender but not a guy you would say is a stopper. Tough and physical but not someone your scared of matching up against. His level of upside/talent is on par with Towns, Embiid, Porzingis and I would draft him believing I can develop him to compete with the best centers in the league.

Now onto Doncic.

His list of accomplishments in international basketball have been well documented. Basically he won everything... Winning is pretty important I mean money aside you play to win. We cheer to see our teams win. He won. Moving on I wanna talk about his actual skillset.

Doncic plays with a higher level of feel and is a cerebral player. Similar to Harden or Curry even when it seems like he is wasting energy dribbling around the ball he is actually being very decisive on how and when to attack his defender. He seems to know where everyone is on the floor at all times and where everyone will be and is a very skilled passer. His handles are spectacular. Not many players in the NBA can dribble as well as him. His handles at 6'8 are like James and Simmons.

What he doesnt have that all the players listed above have is an elite athletic attribute. Simmons and James are all around elite athletes. Curry is quick and strong. Harden has a lightning quick first step, sneaky hops and is strong. Doncic has proven he can withstand the Euroleagues physical play but it took a toll on him as his percentages and effeciency took a huge dip as the year dragged on (but I mean he is 19 playing in probably the most physical league in the world). He has alot of work to do on his body and it should be his main priority during this offseason. As far as his shooting that shouldnt be a concern. He has a beautiful stroke and a wide assortment of shots he can create from any position on the floor.

Defence shouldnt be too much of a concern. He can play PG, SG, SF which means even if he is as terrible defensively as James Harden or Carmelo Anthony you should always be able to find someone he can hide on unless you are playing Golden State.

To sum it up I have no comparison for Doncic. Its sort of like when I watched Curry at Davidson though and everyone couldnt believe what they were watching because this unathletic undersized gaurd was just torching everyone. I think Doncic will be a solid ballplayer and fringe allstar but if he works his tail off and improves his athletisism then he can become a Top 10 MVP calibur player.


OhCanada-
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Damn too long noones gonna

Damn too long noones gonna read it.

220
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You have good insights. I

You have good insights. I read the whole thing.

TaylorCondrin
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You wanna know how many

You wanna know how many European guards (like Doncic) have ever made an all-star team?

Goran Dragic in 2018. and Tony Parker.

Thats it.

Doncic will bust. He. Will. Bust.

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So your saying because he is

So your saying because he is European he will bust? Strictly due to his nationality. Ive always thought of you as one of the better posters on this site but idk.

SeattleSuperChronics
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I’m going with Ayton 1

I’m going with Ayton 1 overall all day. If I’m the kings I’m taking Bagley over Doncic. A core of Fox and Bagley is better than they have had in years.

Doncic won’t necessarily bust I think he will be average NBA player which doesn’t warrant the 2 overall pick.

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Hold on, before you get

Hold on, before you get butt-hurt (whoops, too late it looks like) Let's take a look at the facts...Because numbers and stats will obliterate your feelings and emotions. You want to see a list of all the European guards who have never been all-stars...47 players here, and 2 (Parker and Dragic) were all-stars. That is a percentage of 4.3%. That means that 4.3 out of 100 European guards will become all-stars.

You're telling me that you're willing to take that risk with a #1 pick?

You wanna know how many American born guards that were drafted with the #1 pick went on to become all-stars? 11

You wanna know how many did not? 9

That's not even counting the American born guards drafted in the top 5 (pretending Doncic slips that far) that became all-stars

Here's your list, the majority were absolute nobody's either by the way:

Zoran Dragic

Jiri Welsch

Gordan Giricek

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Drazen Petrovic *good player, but was he #1 pick worthy? no.

Zoran Planinic

Roko Ukic

Roddy Beaubois

Nando De Colo

Evan Fournier

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

Mickael Pietrus

Frank Ntilikina

Antoine Rigadeau

Pape Sy

Axel Toupane

Dennis Schroder

Paul Zipser

Vassilis Spanoulis

Gal Mekel

Marco Belinelli

Vincenzo Esposito

Sarunas Jasikevicius

Sarunas Marciulonis

Sergei bazarevich

Sergey Karasev

Alexey Shved

Sasha Danilovic

Aleksandar Dordevic

Marko Jaric

Nemanja Nedovic

Sasha Pavlovic

Igor Rakocevic

Predrag Savovic

Marko Milic

Sasha Vujacic

Beno Udrih

Alex Abrines

Jose Calderon

Rudy Fernandez

Raul Lopez

Juan Carlos Navarro

Sergio Rodriguez

Ricky Rubio

Thabo Sefolosha

Furkan Korkmaz

Ibrahim Kutluay

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First, why are you so

First, why are you so aggressive?

Second, I fail to follow your logic. You start by mentioning the percentage of Euro guard becoming all-stars, then you compare it to #1 American picks who became all-stars. Shoddy reasoning really.

Also, I don't know whether Doncic will be an all-star, but comparing him to Kutluay, Lopez, Udrih, or Toupane to convince us he will not is preposterous.

I hope for your own sake you're trolling.

BeardedDragon84
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exactly, 4.3% of European

exactly, 4.3% of European guards became all-stars, ok what's the percentage of American born guards that became all-stars?

sweaterflex
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Cherrypicking

You can cherry pick data like this for anything (until 2016 we'd never had a cheeto billionaire as president before either). Analyzing prospects is about utilizing the things we know to project moving forward, and put aside our biases. What do we know about prospects?

-Players that excel at a young age against elite competition are the most likely to advance furthest. You can find exceptions, but this is largely true. Doncic won the MVP of the second best basketball league on the planet in his age 19 season. He dominated in the Eurocup with an average Slovenian team. He was not beasting redshirt juniors at Washington State, he was the best among professionals making hundred of thousands to millions of dollars (euros) a year.

-Very few wings excel without being good passers and shooters. Without these skills, even your DeMar DeRozans of the world are useless in the playoffs. What predicts these skills? Assist rate and Free Throw% (due to sample size), both elements Doncic excels in.

-Players drafted younger are more likely to physically develop faster and to a greater degree. The NBA has world class strength and conditioning coaches, and most players put on 10+ lbs of muscle in their careers and maximize their physical capabilities. Doncic has played two years consecutively without an offseason to train.

-Versatility is valuable on offense and defense. Every elite player can play multiple roles on offense, and the best guards play high level team defense. Doncic played most of the season as an oversized point guard (like Harden or LBJ), but easily slides off the ball when playing with Dragic or Llull. He shoots coming off of screens as easily as he makes plays as the ball handler in the pick and roll. On defense he can reasonable guard 2s, 3s, and 4s. He had a high steal%, the leading indicator for basketball instincts. Being a lockdown man to man defender is less important in modern defensive schemes. Avery Bradley is considered a lockdown defender, and he consistently posts negative defensive RPM. Switching effectively, using length to disrupt passing lanes, and avoiding unnecessary risks are the keys to modern perimeter defense.

Give me all of your Doncic stock and I will take it to the bank.

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I can throw around useless

I can throw around useless stats too look...

Amount of Bahamian born players in the NBA's history. 3.

Percentage of Bahamian NBA players to play in an Allstar game 0%.

Dont draft Ayton hes from the Bahama's.

Heres a list of Euro NBA players that didnt win Euroleague MVP at the age of 19. Here's your list, the majority were absolute nobody's either by the way:

Zoran Dragic

Jiri Welsch

Gordan Giricek

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Drazen Petrovic *good player, but was he #1 pick worthy? no.

Zoran Planinic

Roko Ukic

Roddy Beaubois

Nando De Colo

Evan Fournier

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

Mickael Pietrus

Frank Ntilikina

Antoine Rigadeau

Pape Sy

Axel Toupane

Dennis Schroder

Paul Zipser

Vassilis Spanoulis

Gal Mekel

Marco Belinelli

Vincenzo Esposito

Sarunas Jasikevicius

Sarunas Marciulonis

Sergei bazarevich

Sergey Karasev

Alexey Shved

Sasha Danilovic

Aleksandar Dordevic

Marko Jaric

Nemanja Nedovic

Sasha Pavlovic

Igor Rakocevic

Predrag Savovic

Marko Milic

Sasha Vujacic

Beno Udrih

Alex Abrines

Jose Calderon

Rudy Fernandez

Raul Lopez

Juan Carlos Navarro

Sergio Rodriguez

Ricky Rubio

Thabo Sefolosha

Furkan Korkmaz

Ibrahim Kutluay

Same list

holefillers1
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M-A-N-U.

M-A-N-U.

holefillers1
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Might not be from Europe but

Might not be from Europe but he played in EuroLeague...arguing this shit is dumb

jjj10man
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Any you know the difference

Any you know the difference between NBA and euroleague the last 5 years? Euroleague used to be less physical, now it's more physical, and much less European players are busting

Gronounours
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You know how many Euro guards

You know how many Euro guards made an all-star team before Parker? None.

That's why Parker didn't make an all-star team, and busted.

220
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Doncic has been

Doncic has been unprecedentedly exceptional for his age as a guard in European basketball. They barely play young guys in top European leagues and his team not only wins the title, but he wins the MVP as well. It's not unbelievable that he could have an unprecedented career for a European guard in the NBA as well.

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I'm excited to see Doncic

I'm excited to see Doncic playin the NBA. What he's done in such a short time is utterly unprecedented. As great as Dirk is, he wasn't putting up numbers like Doncic at e same age. I don't care what anyone says, whether he's a poor defender (I think he's better than he's shown), or unathletic (really not as bad as people make out). I think he's one of the more sure-fire prospects in this draft.

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Nowitzki

Dirk made 23pts,8reb,3ass.2stea,1blk at the age of 19 in the German first league. Not that bad !
I have seen Doncic a couple of times live (I am from Europe). He uses his bball IQ offensively and defensively, but his real plus /minus is not the teams best. I would draft him behind Ayton, maybe behind Bagley. Doncic is a versatile scorer, great passer, has good but not great athleticism, his defense is good but not great. His shooting percentage will be great because he is not guarded by two defenders, just alike in Europe. You can use him as your Point Guard on a bad team, and he will be sure-fire rookie of the year despite below average eFG%. But you can also use him as your second ball handler on small forward (or shooting guard) and he will help you to win with hustle stats, rebounds, good assist/turnover ratio and a good shooting percentage.
If you want to go big in the draft, you get some really good (shooting) bigs. Every one is different, JJJ is superb defense with a shoot, Bamba is shoot blocking with some range, Bagley is scoring and rebounding, Carter Jr. is defense with a shoot, M. Porter Jr. is scoring and Ayton is a little bit (or much) of everything.
(Dirk made only 26% (European) 3Pts at their age.)
I would draft Dirk first and Ayton second.

2quick4u
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why do you make up

why do you make up information like that¿?

First of all Nowitzki never played in the German first league and second, he never had those numbers...

from 1994 to 1998 (the year he was drafted) Nowitzki played for DJK Wurzburg, in the SECOND division league in Germany, and that last year in 1997-98 he averaged 28.2ppg

those are not bad numbers, but again, as talented as he was (in fact he raped everyone in the nike hoop summit game scoring 33pts and 14rb) he played in a very weak league, while Doncic at same age is the best player in Europe and has won everything.

JK44
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.

I played against him in Germans first league. 1998 - 16 games in September- November. Do you remember NBA lockout in 1998, season started Jan. 1999, limited to 50 games.

220
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If I'm the Suns and my

If I'm the Suns and my evaluation finds the Ayton and Doncic even close then I go with Ayton. There aren't many quality bigs and Ayton seems to have the tools to become one of them. Plus the Suns three players with the greatest upside are Devin Booker, TJ Warren, and Josh Jackson. They're all wings.

The fear for Phoenix is not wanting to become the next team who passes on a top wing due to need like the Portland Trailblazers did passing on Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant. The Suns are fortunate to have a head coach who has coached Doncic to provide insight into who he is as a player and person.

In the end I think the Suns take Ayton.

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For the Core that Phoenix has

For the Core that Phoenix has Constructed Currently they need to Go Ayton or better off Trading down.

They are Set and have proven young talent at the wings all ready. To expect Luka to come from Europe into the NBA and toss him into a Starting PG position is Absurd especially with questions on how he will adjust to the NBA Athletically. Yes he has solid court vision fbut he needs to be in a position like CJ McCollum/Bradley Beal with another primary ball handler.

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Ayton's offense at the NBA

Ayton's offense at the NBA level is going to be 90 percent dunks, free throws and jumpers.

Based on what I've seen so far, including probably a dozen games in person at the AAU level, Ayton really wants to be a jump shooter, not post up or get dirty in the paint. And he isn't capable of putting it on the floor and creating.

I think Ayton will be an elite rebounder, and can stretch a defense with the 3, but I'm not sold on Ayton at the defensive end. He's not a natural shot blocker, doesn't really have the instincts or timing for it, doesn't move his feet especially well on the perimeter, and I don't see the kind of intensity and passion required to be elite at that end of the floor.

He has elite size and frame and is an elite athlete for someone his size, can shoot it from distance and will be an exciting player due to his dunks and insane size, and more than likely will be an all-star level player. But I don't see someone who is going to average 25 ppg as an NBA player, mostly because I don't think he wants to be that kind of player. He'd rather dunk it four times and chuck a dozen jumpers from 20 feet then go to work in the paint.

Of course, there is always the possibility Ayton will add other elements of his game that I don't see. He has elite tools (size, frame, strength, athleticism), and every NBA great improved various aspects of their game over time. But I think in some ways, I see a different version of Andrew Wiggins. Insanely talented, lacking a complete, well-rounded game, and an uncertain motor.

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Give me Ayton. Physically

Give me Ayton. Physically ready for the NBA whereas Doncic needs a few years to develop himself into a man. In those years where he’s trying to develop physically, Ayton will use that to develop into a better player.

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Because of his size, length and athleticism,

I go with Ayton at #1 without question.

I fear some teams may regret taking Doncic at the #2, not because he ain't good but because some of the players picked behind may end up better.

Doncic athletic upside is limited by what I call the "big calf syndrom". It's very hard to transform a player with big calf into an athletic guy. He makes up for it with his size and craftiness but is nowhere near someone like Manu, who was ripped.

Some of the bigs may not have his IQ or skills but may become topnotch defender who protect the rim (in particular JJJ and Bamba).

weballin.net

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Ayton is a generational type

Ayton is a generational type talent. Players like him who can become superstars and lead teams to championships rarely come along. His size, athleticism, and skill-set combination is ridiculous. Ayton has to be the pick.

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As a Suns fan, I'm still

As a Suns fan, I'm still slightly torn over who we should take first. If it's purely BPA then Ayton would seem the logical choice regardless of depth the Suns may have in frontcourt with Chriss and Bender. They are a 21-61 team and need help. Ayton would go into a good situation with Tyson Chandler to mentor him.

But Phoenix have a gap at point unless they resign Payton and with the new Head Coach having strong links to Doncic there is a line of thought he would be a logical fit too. Doncic may not put up the sort of numbers Ayton will but he could make other players better and playing alongside Booker could be very exciting.

I think the Suns may opt for Ayton given his upside up whoever they take I'll be happy with as long as it's one of these two.

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The top 3 for the Suns should

The top 3 for the Suns should be Ayton, Bamba, and Doncic and if you want Bamba/Doncic then trade down to 2, maybe even 3.

The Suns could trade down to 2 for Luka and also pick up WCS and 36 from the Kings and either Justin Jackson or Frank Mason.

The Suns could trade down to 3 and get Bamba along with 19, 30, and Taurean Prince.

At 4, the Memphis should take Bamba if he is there. Or, Porter if Bamba is gone. Think about taking Luka if he falls. Otherwise we should trade down to 7 and 22 then I am gonna go get Mikal Bridges and (hopefully) Mitchell Robinson. Then at 32 I am taking Jalen Brunson if he is there and Donte Inferno is not.

Trae Young: Steph Curry has been borderline unwatchable for much of this Western Conference Finals. The POOR MAN's version of that?

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Ayton

Ayton

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