The 10 Most Likely Draft Busts
The 10 most likely draft busts
June, 12, 2010
By Ryen Russillo
Players don't make it in the NBA for a variety of reasons. Some guys aren't athletic enough for the league; others don't have the work ethic. A few of the traits are easy to see, but most are difficult to determine until it is too late.
Here are 10 highly regarded players who could end up struggling to make a significant impact in the NBA.
Cousins is the darling of the statistical evaluations. One concern I have with variations of PER is that it rewards players with high rebounding and high field goal percentage numbers that play limited minutes. On film, Cousins is an advanced offensive player; his post moves are more developed than a lot of current NBA centers. However, his attitude could counteract those positives. Too often, Cousins showed signs of immaturity that made him an unlikable player to watch at Kentucky. It is one thing to get into it with the opposition; it's another to challenge your coach. Cousins disappointed a lot of NBA people by saying that concerns about his behavior were media-driven. Plus his work ethic, conditioning and defensive commitment are all question marks at this point.
Whiteside has all the measurements you would want, just under 7 feet tall in shoes with a ridiculous 7-foot-7 wingspan, but can he play? His shot selection is terrible. Whiteside settles for a lot of long 2-point attempts and plays as if he has no interest in passing to anyone once he has the ball. His block totals are impressive -- 5.4 per game -- but he floats on too many possessions. Whiteside will have to work much harder around screens to be an effective team defender in the NBA.
One of the most hyped players coming out of New York City, Stephenson has a lot of name recognition. But his first season at Cincinnati was inconsistent. Stephenson is in love with his dribble. He will try to break down his defender one-on-one, constantly ignoring his teammates. He is not effective off the ball and shows little interest when he isn't involved. Stephenson has loose shot mechanics and made just 22 percent of his 3-point attempts. He has used his strength to get by at lower levels, but I'm not sure he is athletic enough to play SG or SF in the NBA.
It is always a challenge evaluating a potential lottery pick that only played 13 minutes per game, but Orton sure seems like an inconsistent player. Granted, he is huge, moves well and is good around the basket, but when he gets caught in traffic with the ball, the possession doesn't end well. On film, I find myself wondering what he was thinking with some passes, and I rarely have an answer. Orton gets frustrated too easily and can take himself out of games. He is a good team defender, shows on screens, closes out on the perimeter and holds position well, but he goes for a lot of fakes and he needs to cut down on his fouls.
This is difficult, because there are so many things that I like about Hayward's game. He is tough, finds the ball, has a good handle, makes the right decision and looks like a great teammate. But who is he going to guard? Hayward will be matched up against the best big athletes in the world, and they will simply post him up until he gets stronger. Perhaps the biggest question is his shooting. He converted only 29 percent of his 3s last year after hitting 45 percent his freshman season. If he doesn't improve his long-range jumper, it will be hard to find a role for the potential top-10 pick.
White can score, but if you are drafting him as a point guard, you aren't getting one. This is a weak draft at that position and teams will reach for players they think can become PGs, which is usually a mistake. As a shooting guard, White will spot up for jumpers and attack the rim, but when he had to play the point two seasons ago, he still looked like a one-dimensional scorer. White reminds me of Tyreke Evans, but not in a good way. The likeness lies in endless drives to the basket that don't involve anyone else.
George has been getting a lot of buzz, projecting as a 6-9 shooting guard. But against poor competition, George was invisible during stretches this season. He's inconsistent with his decision making. In transition he is impressive, but in the half court he takes a lot of bad shots and gets into trouble with some questionable drives. If a team takes him in the lottery, it will be passing on better players.
Davis has great shooting and rebounding numbers, but when you watch him, you end up expecting more than he actually delivers. His lack of strength means the rebounding numbers won't translate and getting post position is going to be a struggle. Davis is not the kind of athlete that is just going to get his buckets by cleaning up. Davis is too raw to go in the top seven picks.
Last year, one lottery team told me they were thinking of taking Robinson if he stayed in the draft, but this year his stock has fallen. Robinson is an athletic small forward and is great around the rim, but he can't dribble and his 3-point shot isn't nearly as good as advertised. In the right system he could be a role player, but he will never be a consistent scoring threat.
Warren has a chance to go in the first round based on his ability to get to the rim. This past season was a disaster though. His shooting was terrible and the team fell apart with him as the leader. Ask any scout, and you'll hear horror stories about Warren's immaturity and lack of commitment. If Warren doesn't grow up, he will be a waste of a pick.
Someone posted this already but thanks!
I have no problem with that list really, except I think Paul George and Stephenson will be good NBA players and Stanley Robinson and Willie Warren will be drafted too low to be considered busts.
I personally think Luke Babbitt and Derrick Favors should be on the list before Robinson and Warren.
Didn't even see it! They took the delete thread feature off, so it's here to stay now lol.
^I'm convinced that you are Luke Babbitt. Or if you're not, you'd do something very strange/gay to him if you ever saw him in person. Whenever somebody says his name, you are the 1st person to respond and you say the same exact stuff everytime.
Cole Aldrich is destined to be a lottery BUST in the tradition of Eric Montross, Todd Fuller and Joel Pryzbilla. How is that "low risk" or a "safe pick" as some have said?
Aldrich measured only 6-9 in socks. Even with shoes, he'd be an undersized C in the NBA.
His max vertical leap is 28 inches, which is lead-footed.
He simply cannot score (9.4 ppg in college) and won't score at the NBA level. Isn't much of a passer either. Averaged less than 1 assist per game in college. 0.6 to be exact.
Aran Smith compares Aldrich to Eric Montross/Joel Pryzbilla. The comparison is accurate. See their career numbers in college.
Eric Montross, North Carolina, 7-0
11.7 ppg 6.8 rpg 0.6 apg 1.2 bpg 58.5 fg%
Joel Pryzbilla, Minnesota, 7-1
9.9 ppg. 6.9 rpg. 1.9 apg. 3.3 bpg. 59.1 fg%
Cole Aldrich, Kansas, 6-10
9.4 ppg. 7.7 rpg. 0.6 apg. 2.3 bpg. 57.4 fg%
Aldrich is the most offensively-challenged of the three, averaging the fewest points per game on the lowest field goal%.
Final season scoring in college:
Joel Pryzbilla 14.4 ppg 61.3% fg.
Eric Montross 13.6 ppg 56% fg.
Cole Aldrich 11.3 ppg 56% fg.
The offensively-challenged one.
A worse offensive player than Montross and Pryzbilla? Yep.
Deserves to be drafted in the lottery? Nope. Maybe not even the first round.
That comment was toward Cyclo....Not you ButlerBulldogs lol
Cole Aldrich is extremely overated don't know why he is so high for a guy that doesn't provide alot but post defense.
You Can Minus Be How Much Times You want but i see this guy a tad bit better then Zoubek and zoubek is expected to be undrafted. This guy doesn't deserve to be a lottery pick and i feel sorry for who ever drafts him in the lottery.
I think Paul George is overrated.
I think he's a classic "We have a high pick and since we like him, let's not trade down and just take him 10 picks then he should be" player.
I understand he's 6-9 and all but we seen this fail before with these big wing players. I think Paul George could be a good player but I never see him becoming a all star. He reminded me of a poor man's Paul Pierce type player and now some of smart basketball fans are saying he could be the next T-Mac which I think is crazy.
Aminu and Favors are the guys with the highest chances of being busts in respect to their expectations. If Favors isn't putting up Amare numbers in 3 years, people are going to say he's a bust.
I think he's better then some of you give him credit for, but he's definitely a what you see is what you get type of player. A better offensive Pryzbilla is probably what he'll turn out to be, but the good thing about him is he's got a 99% chance of reaching it which is more then most from the lottery have to reach their potential.
Cole Aldrich is one of the more low risk players in the draft. He's going to be a top 3 post defender in the NBA someday, he's great in the pick and roll (which makes him a perfect fit for the Jazz), and he's not as bad offensively as y'all are making him out to be. Don't forget how he looked as a Sophomore, when he was a 15 ppg scorer. He's not very talented offensively, but he has some basic moves and will be a future double digit scorer. I don't see what's not to like about him. You know exactly what you're going to get, and he's like the PERFECT big man for a team trying to make a run for the title. He's the type of C that can be a starter for a team for 10 years.
I agree. We never know how players turn out.
If Aldrich gets picked 9th by Utah and averages only 9ppg, 8rpg and 1.5bpg for 10 seasons? I would say that was a good pick. He panned out, played a decade and helped Utah
I'd still say that's a "bust" for a lottery pick.
a lot, and ed davis has possibilities as a good player
i agree w/ whiteside & stephenson because they seem dumber than hell and ultimately uncoachable (bledsoe also seems like a dull bulb)...look inside the numbers and you'll see that hayward ain't all that, and terrico white is not very good...
orton may pan out eventually, i love warren's offensive skills, but he seems emotionally very immature - he's a second rounder
basically, i wouldn't spend a mid- first on hayward, a lottery pick on whiteside, and wouldn't go near stephenson w/ a ten foot pole, although he's an impressive 1-on-1 scorer
Will be a bust. The guy is looming around the lottery as a possibility and why I don't get it. I saw the guy get dominated by Jarvis Varnado as Swat put up a triple double on the guy before Cousins and the crew came along. Swat out played the guy in every game they ever played against each other; he also is longer, taller, and just as athletic as the guy and he will play same position in Pro. Patterson is soft and noone acts like they see it, they will though. On the other hand, he is making a smart choice of going pro after his junior year when he played with some really good talent that can mask his unagressive soft nature.
How favors isn't on this list baffles me. Favors upside is to have a Dwight howard-like impact or he'll be an athlete with a world of potential and never be able to meet it