The 10 Most Likely 2010 Draft Busts According to ESPN's Ryen Russillo
I figured some of you might find this article interesting
Players don't make it in the NBA for a variety of reasons. Some guys aren't athletic enough for the league, others don't have the work ethic. A few of the traits are easy to see, but most are difficult to determine until it is too late.
Here are 10 highly regarded players who could end up struggling to make a significant impact in the NBA.
Cousins is the darling of the statistical evaluations. One concern I have with variations of PER is that it rewards players with high rebounding and high field goal percentage numbers that play limited minutes. On film, Cousins is an advanced offensive player. His post moves are more developed than a lot of current NBA centers. However, his attitude could counteract those positives. Too often, Cousins showed signs of immaturity that made him an unlikable player to watch at Kentucky. It is one thing to get into it with the opposition; it's another to challenge your coach. Cousins also disappointed a lot of NBA people by saying that concerns about his behavior were media-driven. His work ethic, conditioning and defensive commitment are all question marks at this point.
Whiteside has all the measurements you would want, just under 7-foot in shoes and a ridiculous 7-7 wingspan, but can he play? His shot selection is terrible. Whiteside settles for a lot of long 2-point attempts and plays as if he has no interest in passing to anyone once he has the ball. His block totals are impressive -- 5.4 per game -- but he floats on too many possessions. Whiteside will have to work much harder around screens to be an effective team defender in the NBA.
One of the most hyped players coming out of New York City, Stephenson has a lot of name recognition, but his first season at Cincinnati was inconsistent. Stephenson is in love with his dribble. He will try to break down his defender one-on-one, constantly ignoring his teammates. He is not effective off the ball and shows little interest when he isn't involved. Stephenson has loose shot mechanics and made just 22 percent of his 3-point attempts. He has used his strength to get by at lower levels, but I'm not sure he is athletic enough to play SG or SF in the NBA.
It is always a challenge evaluating a potential lottery pick that only played 13 minutes per game, but Orton sure seems like a very inconsistent player. Granted, he is huge, moves well and is good around the basket, but when he gets caught in traffic with the ball, the possession doesn't end well. On film I find myself wondering what he was thinking with some passes, I rarely have an answer. Orton gets frustrated too easily and can take himself out of games. He is a good team defender, shows on screens, closes out on the perimeter and holds position well, but he goes for a lot of fakes and he needs to cut down on his fouls.
This is difficult, because there are so many things that I like about Hayward's game. He is tough, finds the ball, has a good handle, makes the right decision and looks like a great teammate. But who is he going to guard? Hayward will be matched up against the best big athletes in the world and they will look to post him until he gets stronger. But perhaps the biggest question is his shooting. He converted only 29 percent of his 3s last year after hitting 45 percent his freshman season. If he doesn't improve his long-range jumper, it will be hard to find a role for a potential top-10 pick.
White can score, but if you are drafting him as a point guard, you aren't getting one. This is a weak draft at that position and teams will reach for players that they think can become PGs, which is usually a mistake. As a shooting guard, White will spot up for jumpers and attack the rim, but when he had to play the point two seasons ago, he still looked like a one-dimensional scorer. White reminds me of Tyreke Evans, but not in a good way. The likeness lies in endless drives to the basket that don't involve anyone else.
George has been getting a lot of buzz, projecting as a 6-9 shooting guard. But against poor competition this season, George was invisible during stretches. He's also inconsistent with his decision making. In transition, he is impressive but in the half court he takes a lot of bad shots and gets into trouble with some questionable drives. If a team takes him in the lottery it will be passing on better players.
Davis has great shooting and rebounding numbers, but when you watch him, you end up expecting more than he actually delivers. His lack of strength means that the rebounding numbers won't translate and getting post position is going to be a struggle. Davis is not the kind of athlete that is just going to "get buckets" by cleaning up. Davis is too raw to go in the top seven picks, in my opinion.
Last year, one lottery team told me they were thinking of taking Robinson if he stayed in the draft, but this year his stock has fallen. Robinson is an athletic small forward and is great around the rim, but he can't dribble and his 3-point shot isn't nearly as good as advertised. In the right system he could be a role player, but he will never be a consistent scoring threat.
Warren still has a chance to go in the first round based on his ability to get to the rim. This past season was a disaster; his shooting was terrible and the team fell apart with him as the leader. Ask any scout and he will tell you horror stories about Warren's immaturity and lack of commitment. If Warren doesn't grow up, he will be a waste of a pick.
I know alot of people will get upset about this but: I agree with this whole list.
Paul George is my pick. I dunno. When he was being called a mid 1st round pick- I was cool with it. Now that he's being put in that 8th spot? I don't think so. I think he could be good but not a all star IMO.
Actually a really good article, but some of these are just so obvious, like Warren and Orton and Whiteside because of his massive risk/reward potential. I would have put Cole Aldrich on here in place of at least one of these guys. He's undersized for the center position, a remedial athlete, and while he has great defensive instincts, he's also relatively weak and doesn't have much of an offensive game (he's certainly not going to be a threat). Unless he puts on like 15 more pounds and proves to truly be as great a defender on the next level as he was in college (unlikely, the Big 12 didn't have many intimidating centers), I think he'll be a bust.
I think Cole Aldrich will be fine. He's 6'11'' in shoes and I don't think he'll ever play a game barefoot. He isn't a great athlete, but he finished strong and blocks shots with authority. You're right, his combine numbers of bench press wouldn't indicate he has good strength, but bench press really the best indicator of strength for a guy with a 7'5'' wingspan? He plays strong, and Dexter Pittman and Epke Udoh ( who did line up some at center ) both played in the Big 12, name any other conference has 3 center prospects in this draft. Cole Aldrich has a few post moves and a good mid range jumper for a center, also a 70+% free throw shooter. I disagree and think Cole Aldrich is one of the safer picks in the 7-13 range.
Making the argument that DeMarcus Cousins might bust is beyond foolish. People want to ascribe a horrible, criminal character to him that does not exist. Is he a hothead? Yes, he is a 19-year old hothead. Given Russillo's biases towards Boston, I would tend to believe he would be aware of Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby Davis, Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace, Rajon Rondo, and Nate Robinson. Is he blissfully ignorant as to the times where they have yelled at refs or their coaches? Some people just want to perpetuate ignorance rather than expend the energy necessary to come up with an actual thought.
His assessment of Davis is similarly ignorant. The lack of bulk is problematic, but no more so than with Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, or Al-Farouq Aminu.To categorize their potential differently is foolish. If one has enough strength for their talents to translate, what would make another different.
I agree that many of these players have high change of being a bust, but i don't agree with Cousins and Stephenson. I feel Cousin has a fire inside him that will push him hard to become better. Hes emotional and cares a lot and sometimes during games that hurt him instead of helping him.
Stephenson I feel is very similiar to Tyreke Evans in many ways, but he wasn't given the chance to handle the ball at Cincy. I think if he was given the ball as a PG he would be going in the late teens or end of the lottery. He is a beast of a physical specimen and can use his body well.
I can see why the author put them on the list, but I feel these 2 will have long and good NBA careers.
well,few days ago i finally logged in realgm forums and someone brought up a thread about who is likely gonna be bust in the 2008 draft and almost everybody said Brook Lopez
people are starting to think that every big man with potential is a bust going to happen
sure there is a bigger bust possibility with big men but there is still a lot who met there potential and those who was steals like Marc Gasol
I think this is the case with the article ,he listed most of those big men who has any question mark
I agree that Whiteside, Hayward, Davis, Robinson could be busts, Davis is very athletic but he doesn't have an offensive game yet and he is to skinny and weak to be effective in the NBA, If he develops an outside shot and some handles then may he could be effective but right now not. Davis's skill set is more of a center than a PF. Edoh has an outside game and handles that will allow him to be somewhat effective until he gains strength and weight.That is the difference between him and Davis. Robinson is another great athlete with out much of an offensive game. If he can't develop an outside shot and game he has a good chance of being a bust. Whiteside is a head case and who knows what he will be able to do. Hayward has skills but is weak, slender,and not very athletic, I think he will have trouble guarding both the SF's and the 2's. Orton I think will be a very good center if his knees hold up, He has size, and skills to be OK. To me Stephenson will be a solid, if not very good player, he has the skills, the body and desire. George to me can be very good, he has a complete game, he needs to gain weight and strength but most of these kids need that. I'm not that high on Aldrich but he probably will be a servicable center but I don't see him being a starter. I just hope the Jazz don't pick him.
i dont think cousins or davis either one has that spark to make them good nba players skill wise cousions could be one of the best players in the entire leauge but hes so lazy im a huge uk fan and i wanted to power bomb him at times this year i think big cole will be fine hes not gonna be an all star but i look for him to be a solid 10 and 8 guy and did i really see someone copmare stephenson to t evans really lay off the bong bub
If Stanley Robinson goes before pick 20 I think he could be considered a bust, but if goes late 1st round early 2nd then no. I think the team thats drafts him knows he won't be a high scorer. They know his best abilties are running the floor and getting hustle points while using his athleticism. He will be good defender on the wing and thats what many teams in the late first round can use.
i think cole would be a great fit wiht d williams in utah play solid d above average rebounder
Of those guys, Stanley Robinson seems the least likely to be a bust. He may never be an All-Star, but he seems like a lock to be able to help a team and contribute in a lot of ways other than scoring. Hayward has the biggest bust potential. I love his game, but if ends up overmatched at the next level he'll just be a player with all-around skills who doesn't excel at anything well enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings.
To me drafting Cole Aldrich would be wasting a draft pick, we already have two young centers that are taller and bigger than Cole and that have similar abilities. We don't need him. If the Jazz were to draft Aldrich it would be because they have given up on Fes or KK. Boozer most likely will be gone, so the Jazz need to draft a taller, longer PF, so we can try to match up with the Lakers , Celts etc.
Almost any big would be a great fit with DWill.
I think robinson shouldnt be considered a possible bust since hes going to go after the 20th pick most likely. Hes a hustle guy scrapper the kind of guy every team loves to have comming off the bench. I dont think anyone really thinks robinson will be a star or even start so how could he be considered a bust?
Who is the joker that determines whether or not a post gets plus points or minus points? It seems to me if your opinion agrees with his you get plus points, if not you get minus points. What a joke. It doesn't seem to matter if your comments make sense or not, it seems to be whether it matches his opinions. Not that it matters, I have no idea what the points are about, it's just a joke that someone rates your comments according to his opinions. It is fun to read and exchange opinions though, everyone keep up the good work.
"Making the argument that DeMarcus Cousins might bust is beyond foolish. People want to ascribe a horrible, criminal character to him that does not exist. Is he a hothead? Yes, he is a 19-year old hothead. Given Russillo's biases towards Boston, I would tend to believe he would be aware of Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby Davis, Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace, Rajon Rondo, and Nate Robinson. Is he blissfully ignorant as to the times where they have yelled at refs or their coaches? Some people just want to perpetuate ignorance rather than expend the energy necessary to come up with an actual thought."
I don't recall Rasheed Wallace, Rajon Rondo, Nate Robinson or Big Baby yelling at or telling their college coaches to get out of their face on national television... I don't remember Kevin Garnett or Kendrick Perkins yelling at their NBA coaches as rookies. You're comparing a college freshman's attitude/emotional problems to the issues/actions of proven NBA veterans... Five of them having NBA championships.
Cousins is a very young player with major attitude problems and emotional issues... The concerns are legit. He seemed to be getting yelled at for something every other game. Then to say that his attitude problems are media driven shows a lack of accountability. He's very immature, which is okay if you're a regular 19 year old, but not if you're about to be given guaranteed millions and represent a franchise.
We posted who we thought were our 10 riskiest picks, which factored in where the player was picked, their floor, and their ceiling and came up with some of the same answers. However, as someone wrote, it seems like every bigman with talent gets labeled a bust. We're "guilty" of it as well because the transitions for bigmen seems to be longer/never happen, where as the ability to score and be athletic converts easily for wing players.
1. Daniel Orton - this was when he was projected in the lottery, in the late teens or twenties, he's a very solid value pick.
2. DeMarcus Cousins - if he goes 3rd to New Jersey it just seems like a chance to butt heads with Avery Johnson. Character isn't as important as talent, but going to the right situation is important for DeMarcus.
3. Derrick Favors - seems to be that Favors is being considered a lock to blow up, but when you're talking about a top five pick there are high expectations.
4. Hassan Whiteside - boom or bust pick. If he ends up somehow going 7 - 10 that will be considered a risky pick, but if he goes late in the lottery its a risk you have to take. Hassan has the best length in this draft and incredible timing blocking shots. The author of this story said that Hassan settles for outside shots, but the fact is Marshall didn't have a system for him. The fact he CAN step out makes him more likely to succeed in the league.
5. Devin Evanks - this was if he was going to go around 20. Anywhere in the bottom 3rd of the draft seems safe, and he reminds us of a Trevor Ariza type defender/athlete.
6. Donatas Motiejunas - irrelevant now.
7. Ed Davis - coming off injury and the fact he didn't improve too much from his freshman year.
8. Eric Bledsoe - people bank on him playing PG, just like we do, but he didn't show it in college so there's risk there.
9. Gordon Hayward - average athlete with a high basketball IQ. IF he goes lottery people are crazy.
10. Larry Sanders - disappeared in CAA games, but has the physical to make an impact.
The conclusion of this is basically that Whiteside is getting ridden way harder than the other bigs by most people. What big in the lottery are you comfortable taking? Aldrich has limited upside, and no guarantee he can step out in the NBA, and his post game isn't dominant. Udoh is between a power forward and center, who is old for his class. Whiteside hasn't interviewed well and doesn't have a perfect frame to build on. DeMarcus is a crazy person. Favors isn't a lock to reach his Howardesque potential. Greg Monroe has limited potential and is soft. Orton is completely unproven.
Just seems like Whiteside gets singled out in everything ESPN writes.