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By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that some people don’t think
too highly of this year’s NBA draft.

People expect franchise-altering talent to be available
at every turn — especially those teams consistently trapped in the lottery.

Jrue Holiday

Unfortunately, the real world simply doesn’t work that way.

Last year’s draft was surprisingly excellent — one
of those rare drafts that featured a franchise talent (Derrick Rose), a handful
of legitimate NBA starters with All-Star potential (OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Russell
Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, even Courtney Lee) and even
more players who showed flashes in limited playing time (DJ Augustin, Anthony
Randolph, Jason Thompson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, JJ Hickson, Marreese Speights,
Ryan Anderson, DeAndre Jordan, George Hill, Jerryd Bayless, Mario Chalmers).

This year’s draft pales in comparison. It’s highly unlikely that it’ll match last
year’s draft in terms of quality depth, and it will have an impossible time measuring
up against any of the other terrific drafts of this era (the Durant-Oden 2007,
the Roy-Aldridge 2006, the Paul-Williams 2005, the Dwight Howard 2004, and of
course the James-Melo-Wade class of 2003).

Twenty years from now, hoops scholars will look on that six-year stretch as one
of the most pivotal eras in NBA history. The amount of quality talent came into
the league during that stretch boggles the mind. Surely, the league was due for
a down year eventually, right?

Well, it appears as if this is that down year.

Outside of Blake Griffin, every prospect in this year’s draft comes attached with
some serious question marks. Heck, even Griffin’s NBA future is murky, thanks
to the perpetually horrible Los Angeles Clippers winning the lottery. It’s one
thing to toss up 30/20 on a regular basis in the Big 12; quite another to keep
your sanity as a potential All-Star trapped in Clipperdom. Before too long, the
word “Clipper” will become shorthand for “horrifying, franchise-crippling injury,”
as in “Adrian Peterson was set to lead the Minnesota Vikings’ rushing attack,
but he suffered a Clipper and he’s out for the year.”

But at least we know Griffin has All-Star potential. What about the rest of these
guys?

The 2009 draft frequently draws comparisons to the 2000 draft — otherwise known
as the worst draft in NBA history. Kenyon Martin (a player eerily similar to Griffin)
went No. 1 overall, but never developed into the dominant power forward we expected
to see after his career at Cincinnati was stopped short by a broken leg. He turned
into a key cog in the Denver Nuggets’ run to the Western Conference Finals, but
injuries have held back a potentially promising career.

The rest of that draft was just dreadful. Marcus Fizer? Keyon Dooling? Jerome
Moiso? Courtney Alexander? Lottery picks. Seriously.

Without Hedo Turkoglu (No. 16) and Michael Redd (No. 43), that draft would’ve
been a total lost cause.

Is this year’s draft that bad?

At this point, I’m leaning no. However, it is the type of draft where a team would
much rather pick in the 15-25 range than from 4-13.

Given the current economic climate, most teams would rather take a flier on a
decent prospect in the second half of round one than guarantee a high-dollar lottery
salary to someone who may or may not become a real NBA contributor.

This year, it’s really easy to talk oneself into a “workout warrior” or fall in
love with a prospect’s potential.

For example, Jrue Holiday could go as high as No. 4 to the Sacramento Kings. He
should have to give 10 percent of his salary to Russell Westbrook as a commission,
because Holiday would never be considered a top-five pick without Westbrook’s
eye-opening rookie season in Oklahoma City.

On paper, Holiday makes sense. He has excellent size and athleticism for the point-guard
spot, and Sacramento desperately needs a playmaker. Holiday had a predictably
strong showing at the NBA draft combine and has a lot of scouts on his size, thanks
to his stellar showings in those high school AAU tournaments.

But I honestly can’t remember a single play Holiday made last year at UCLA.

Some say Ben Howland’s system hides players, who then go on to achieve NBA success
(pointing toward Mbah a Moute and Westbrook as examples). However, what exactly
did Holiday show to deserve his draft standing?

It’s nothing against Holiday. Any other year, he’d be flying under the radar and
he could become a pleasant surprise for someone. But Holiday — along with guys
like Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill, Jeff Teague, and
so on — are seeing their stock artificially inflated because of the lack of competition.

We have guys like DaJuan Blair — a guy who would’ve been a nice sleeper in the
20s — being talked about as a lottery pick, thanks to guys like Paul Milsap proving
that you don’t need to be tall to know how to rebound. We’re seeing guys like
Tyler Hansbrough — an ideal role player and energy guy — rumored to go as high
as No. 11 to New Jersey, just because there aren’t many prototypical “tough guys”
in this draft.

Even guys I really like (James Harden, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington) have question
marks surrounding them, too. I think Harden has a lot of Brandon Roy in him, but
will he be able to shake off his dreadful showing in the NCAA Tournament? Lawson’s
speed makes him nearly impossible to defend in today’s handcheck-free NBA, but
will his low line-drive jumper find enough clearance against bigger defenders?
Ellington has everything you want in a 2-guard, but does he have the leaping ability
and strength to battle the Jason Richardsons of the world?

And we haven’t even discussed Hasheem Thabeet yet. Some think he’s the next Dikembe
Mutombo, others swear he’ll be out of the league in less than five years. It’s
true that you can’t teach 7-foot-3, but whichever team drafts him better be prepared
to go four-on-five on offense until Thabeet learns a post move or two. That’s
not something you want to hear about the potential No. 2 pick.

What about Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio? His high-profile success in the 2008
Olympics and his uncanny resemblance to a young Steve Nash helps his cause, but
his off-and-on jumper and the serious buyout issues with his professional team
make him a risky proposition in the 2-4 range.

Ultimately, I think the 2009 draft will yield a handful of solid pros, putting
it ahead of the 2000 class. But anybody expecting a replica of the 2008 draft
will need to lower those expectations.

If this draft doesn’t quite pan out, we still have John Wall to look forward to
in 2010.

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33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. 2000 not as bad as this article makes it seem
    I think this article overstates how bad the 2000 draft was. That draft did “yield a handful of solid pros.” There’s K-Mart, Hedo and Redd, as the article discussed. And there’s also Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, Joel Pryzbilla, Keyon Dooling, Desmond Mason, Quentin Richardson, DeShawn Stevenson, Eddie House, and Eddie Najara. I guess you could quibble about whether some of those guys are “solid,” but there’s certainly a handful of them there.

    • uhh what that draft was
      uhh what that draft was horrible?? look at the list you just listed as being the best players to come out of an entire draft. his point was that the draft didnt yield a single star, 6-8 “solid”/role players/journeyman (house, dooling) doesnt constitute anything but a god awful draft.
      Also meant to add, very well written and informative article. kudos. nbadraft earning back its legitimacy.

  2. without doubt the worst of all time
    AllDayyy got it right. I’m not sure this article goes far enough in pointing out just how awful that draft was. If you need proof, just go back, take all the players available that year and redo the draft yourself and then ask yourself how happy you would be spending a lottery pick on a najera/pryzbilla/house type player? Give me this year’s class over the 2000 class any day of the week.

  4. 1989
    I think you can make a case for the 1989 draft as being one of the worse ever. Outside of Hardaway, Kemp, Elliot, Rice, and Divac you really didn’t have much talent. I’m sure I’m missing a few names, but this draft was just bad.

    • 89′ was a GREAt draft
      89 Was a great draft buddy, what are you talking about?
      Tim hardaway, Shawn Kemp, Glenn Rice, Vlade Divac, Sean Elliott, Clifford Robinson, Mookie Blaylock, Dino Radja, Nick Anderson, Dana Barros, BJ Armstrong, Sherman Douglas, Doug West, Pooh Richardson, Blue Edwards.
      All good players that averaged more than nine points a game (at least) over long careers.

    • 1989 no good?
      look at who you just reeled off… 2 perennial all-stars for a lengthy period, one of the best shooters of all time. Elliot was a very good pro, and is often underrated. Vlade was… well he was just Vlade

      • @Mehalek1
        Yeah but that’s it. 1989 had 2 perennial All-Stars and a great shooter? Elliot was never better than a second or third option even though I really liked him. If is wasn’t for his kidney (or whatever that was he unfortunately had happen to him) he might have had a chance to do more, but he didn’t. That means that out of 14 lottery teams, only a few have any chance of adding a perennial All-Star? That sucks. If I am a GM and I am drafting #1 – #5 I want a chance to grab a stud! I might not, I might not see something in someone that I should have, but I at least want that chance. If you know that there will be no Hall of Fame caliber players in a draft and only a couple of All-Stars I think that sell the pick to a team that just needs bodies and sign a free agent with the money instead. I think that’s what people think about when they are drafting, at least some of these lottery teams.

        Plus, let’s face it. Having #2 in 2003 or 2007 versus having #2 in 2009? When the team picking #2 is one of the least popular teams in the league and they are disappointed you now that there is something wrong.

        Oh and Divac was the best player taken in 1989. He helped the Lakers for years stay competitive and then got them Kobe. If the Bulls draft BJ Mullens this year and I knew that they would trade him in 5 years for the next Kobe Bryant, I wouldn’t care if the Bulls had the #1 pick and took him over Griffin.

        Divac = Kobe = Best player in the draft

  6. @SuperNova854
    I think that you would deserve that laugh, although I guess it depends on how we would determine what a successful draft is. 2003 had quite a few “franchise” talents. 2000 had NOT ONE, with the possible (although I REALLY don’t think so) exception of Michael Redd who was a mid 2nd rounder. That draft didn’t really contribute (2000) more than a few #3 options on contending teams.

    I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility to think that Griffin, Harden, Curry, Hill, Evans, Rubio and DeRozan have All-Star potential. Of course there are quite a few others, too. Those are just I think the highest upside guys. I mean, Dejuan Blair might lead the league in rebounding someday (heck, Reggie Evans with a basketball IQ isn’t a stretch). But, in order for this draft to be considered a good one following A LOT of drafts in a row which produced franchise talents means A LOT of guys have to reach their upside. That very rarely happens that a lot of guys from the draft actually reach their potential. It’s more likely that 1 or 2 reach their ceiling and 6 or 7 don’t. I see a lot of Derek Fischer types (good pros, can run an offense on a contending team) and Richard Jefferson types (athletic, a couple of All-Star appearances, good 2nd or 3rd option). Maybe Horace Grant types, not necessarily size wise but contribution wise. A good, solid #2 or #3 option who contributes on very good teams. I don’t see franchise talent, which of course isn’t easy to find, but maybe the 2010 free agent class (with it’s franchise caliber free agents) could help this draft class a lot by having a team shaped with these young guys in mind from the start.

    Good article by the way and deepnu666 you are right about 1989. It also didn’t produce many #1 or #2 guys, with only a couple (Hardaway, Kemp, Elliot) being franchise kind of guys and even then only Kemp was close to a #1.

  7. This Draft will be more like 2005
    I think the “experts” are overlooking this draft too much and i think in the end it WILL be more like the 2005 draft with Deron Williams and chris Paul, in that there will be a lot of guys that are busts or disappointments that are drafted high, but there will also be some gems scattered about throughout the first and second round that surprise people. And besides, going into the 2005 draft no one knew Paul was going to be as good as he turned out so that could still happen this year with Flynn.

    – If you look at ’05 the best guys, in order of how good they are now:

    Chris Paul(4th pick), Danny Granger(17th pick), Deron Williams(3rd Pick), Monte Elllis(40th pick), Andrew Bogut (1st pick), Nate Robinson(21st pick), David Lee(30th pick), Raymond felton( 5th pick), Charlie Villanueva(7th pick), Andrew Bynum (10th pick),

    You can see that there were just as many high picks that worked out as low ones, plus there are a handful of other solid guys mixed in from both high and low picks. But also that there were A LOTof Busts high up: Martell Webster(6), Channing Frye(8), Ike Diogu(9), Fran Vazques(11), Yaroslav Korolev(12), Sean May(13)

    -Now if you look at ’09 i think there can be the same type of situation. This is how i rank them as i see their careers possibly going compared to your board here at nbadraft.net (I know this is completely subjective but come back and look at this after two years or so i think i could be right):

    Blake Griffin(1), Johnny Flynn(7), Sam Young(26), Jordan Hill(5), Ty Lawson(25), JeffTeague(10), Tyreke Evans(12), hasheem thabeet(2), Tyler Hansborough(20), Demarr deRozen(11) Terrence Williams(22), Stephan Curry(6), Eric Maynor(21), Dionte Christmas(36), Ricky Rubio(4)

    I may be proven wrong, and we won’t know how good or bad this draft is for at least two years(remember, deron Williams and Granger werent outstanding their first years) so we’ll see. But this is how i see the draft. Definately not as bad as 2000

  8. Brandon Rush Snub ?
    Amazing that you mention guys showing flashes annd mention names like Bayless, Jordan and Hickson who really barely did anything at all and dont mention Rush. But then the Pacers for er reason seem to be media black sheep.

  9. Some drafts are top-heavy,
    Some drafts are top-heavy, some drafts are deep. Some are stronger at one position than another…like this one.

    It’s not that it’s as bad a draft as 2001, which was not top heavy nor deep nor strong in any one position. It’s a draft where you have to be careful and not go with some of the cliched alternatives to “best player available”. In a draft like this, you have to play it safe. Any team who drafts big over small could be risking a lot. A team that drafts upside over maturity could be risking a lot. The best players in this draft are small and quick on one hand and mature and strong on the other. Hansbrough and Williams may both in the lottery because they are ready to play…and that’s not something entirely new with this draft.

    Being safe and smart is the new norm. Look at the Nets who in back to back years took kids named Williams who had arrest records and focus issues then last year, they picked three solid citizens, all with mental toughness. How’d that work out? They patted themselves on the back in 2006 and 2007 for getting “lottery level” talent with late picks. No they didn’t.

  10. tons of PGs
    Upside of the 2009 draft: The vast new crop of PGs from this year’s draft will replace all of those washed up veteran PGs scattered around NBA benches.

    THE IMMORTAL JACQUE VAUGHN, Ty Lue, Chucky Atkins, Anthony Johnson, Mike James, Bobby Jackson, Anthony Carter, Lindsey Hunter

    I could probably get 10 more grandpa PGs on that list.

    And jacque vaughn should have been out of the league 10 years ago.

  11. economy affecting rookies playing time
    I know last year’s draft was unusually deep, but can’t the contributions of a lot of rookies be linked to the economy? Think about it. Teams don’t want to pay for veteran players when rookies are much cheaper. I think that this years class will get a ton of playing time because of this. Whether they are good or bad remains to be seen, but they will definitely get a chance to prove themselves early and often. Was last years really that great? Or was it just the opportunities to play?

  12. cp3, you forgot kevin ollie
    cp3, you forgot kevin ollie who got 17 minutes.

    This draft class will bring a lot of starting potential guards…there are a lot of 2nd round sleepers too…its a deep draft.

    Only franchise potential players in this draft are

    Rubio(Curry)
    Griffin(Amare)
    Evans(Wade

    Guys I see totally flopping

    Curry(Bayless)
    Holiday(Mardy Collins)
    DeRozan(Ruben Patterson)
    Jennings(Telfair) – guys under 170lbs dont make it in the NBA unless your TJ Ford or AI
    Thabeet for obvious reasons
    Mullens
    Daye

    Dudes who will be solid pros
    Lawson
    Harden
    Williams
    Clark
    Blair
    Mills
    Collison
    Maynor
    Teague
    Green
    Dozier
    AJ Price

    Flynn isn’t on my list because he has a chance to be great…depending on the team.

  13. It won’t be great but it
    It won’t be great but it will produce a franchise player in griffin and a lot of good star players

    And no one is mentioning brandon Jennings, I’m saying right now he will be the 2nd best player in the drat…watch

  14. It won’t be great but it
    It won’t be great but it will produce a franchise player in griffin and a lot of good star players

    And no one is mentioning brandon Jennings, I’m saying right now he will be the 2nd best player in the drat…watch

  15. It won’t be great but it
    It won’t be great but it will produce a franchise player in griffin and a lot of good star players

    And no one is mentioning brandon Jennings, I’m saying right now he will be the 2nd best player in the drat…watch

  16. May things still to like about the draft
    Ideally the clubs picking in the lottery are looking for a player who can come in and be part of a 8 man rotation immediately, and in the worst cases be a top 3 player on the team. The clubs picking in the mid to late first or second round of the draft are seeking potential guys with raw tools or a guy with limited upside but can find a niche on a championship team. With that said i don’t see why this draft can’t yield those results. Here are 7 players who right away will make the team they go to better(if they are used correctly)

    1. Blake Griffin- teams with Baron Davis, E-Gordon, Al Thornton and Kaman or Camby not so bad a starting 5 but these are the Clippers so…

    2 Hasheem Thabeet- will provide defense and rebounding right away and i think is less raw than a lot of people think he is 22 now not 19 when people started talking about him.

    3 Ricky Rubio- I don’t think he will blow people away with stats but whatever team he goes to will have a lot more energy then before he seems to just brings a attitude with him that will be infectious with the fans, teammates and coaches.

    4.James Harden- So he didn’t have a good tournament that doesn’t discount 2 years of solid/spectacular all around play. Harden may not be Brandon Roy or Paul Pierce but he will be and all star SG in this league and push Griffin to be Rookie of the Year

    5 Demar Derozan- Only knock on him is his range he is blessed with Vince Carter/Kobe like athleticism and is one year out of high school. He has a chance to be just as good as anyone in this draft or last years draft. Showed people glimmers of his potential in the NCAA tourney.Underrated basketball IQ

    6 Tyreke Evans- He could be Jamal Crawford or a extremely rare talent at 6’5 222 with incredible handles, and play making ability. Hes not a world class athlete but makes up for it with size and skill set. He will at least be the Devin Harris of last year and wont turn 20 till September.

    7 Brandon Jennings- What is not to like about Jennings other than maybe his jumper, world class athlete ( Rajon Rondo esque), the swagger to run a NBA team and lives for basketball. Had he gone to college instead of playing with grown men in a totally different league,county and game then he is used to he would have proved how special he was. He might rub some people the wrong way but no one can deny he is a special player. There is a reason why he was hyped so much in high school and his game as matured eons since then.

    Other players that will have very successful careers

    1.Stephen Curry- I don’t think he will ever be a point guard on a successful team unless he plays with a player that dominates the ball like a Lebron or Kobe. He is probably to slight to cover SG unless he plays with a big point guard like Jason Kidd. But Curry is the perfect 6th man on a championship team. Getting of his shot will never be a problem and his defense will keep him in the game.

    2.Jordan Hill- I am not the biggest Hill fan i think he is soft,raw, and can be lazy at times( but maybe i am thinking of the Jordan Hill of 2 years ago) if he proves the doubters wrong he will be an All-Star power forward in the league. Rebounding will be harder in the NBA, most likely with never average 11 a game but a pick and pop 18 and 8 guy is certainly in his range.

    3 Earl Clark- Clark has Lamar Odom written all over him even down to his inconsistencies.Clark is the prototypical combo forward that are becoming ever popular in todays 3 big man rotation NBA. He can do it all for you (hes shot will come) and has the strength to bang inside unlike Austin Daye.

    4 Chase Budinger- Coming into college he was projected by some to leave after his first year and withdrew his name twice to mature his game. This has obviously helped even though i don’t think his draft position would have been much different. He can pass,make is own shot,has hops and can obviously shoot. Hes numbers have improved with every year spent at Arizona and developed into a leader on that team. He will never be a lock down defender but in a team concept could excel.

    5 BJ Mullens – It might take the center a few years to develop ala Kendrick Perkins but if he can “get it” and not be another Patty O’Bryant he could be a center on a Championship team. He will have to improve his defense and offensive efficiency but could find a role in the NBA. Wasn’t too long ago people thought he would be the number 1 pick in the draft

    Players that would be perfect with a role on a championship team/will find a role in the NBA

    DaJuan Blair
    Jeff Teague
    Johnny Flynn
    Jrue Holiday
    Gerald Henderson
    Tyler Hansbrough
    Ty Lawson
    Taj Gibson
    Darren Collison
    James Johnson
    Derrick Brown
    DaJuan Summers
    Eric Maynor
    Victor Claver
    Toney Douglas
    Marcus Thornton
    John Brockman
    Curtis Jerrells
    AJ Price
    Jeff Adrien
    Jerel McNeal
    Josh Heytvelt
    Robert Vaden
    Patty Mills
    Dionte Christmas
    Goran Suton

    Just like any draft there are diamonds in the rough. Second round and late fist round gems have be found in recent drafts as has been shown in these NBA playoffs. The Celtics lost a second round gem and many feel its the reason why they didn’t get to the ECF ( even without another slightly taller man). This may not be a glamorous draft but every team gets excited about the opportunity to improve there team for the future and the now. But maybe I am just getting lost in my favorite time of year, the NBA draft summer is here!

    • I didn’t mean to
      I didn’t mean to specifically call anyone out but this article and some of the comments made me start a new forum topic.

      I think that looking back on a draft in just a couple of seasons it might be deceptive. When we look back in 5 years or 7 years, will there be more than 15 guys still in the league? I’m not so sure.

      Anyway, I think that you can find out what I really think at:

      http://www.nbadraft.net/node/7564

  17. ’09 Draft
    Hansbrough in the lottery does show the weakness of this draft, but if he can develop into a David Lee-type of player, nobody will question the pick. UCLA’s system really did hide the talent that Jrue Holiday has, and his NBA career will look a lot more like his high school career than his college one. During his limited time at point guard, he showed court vision and passing abilities that easily out-shined those of fellow bruin Darren Collison. Ricky Rubio might be a bust because he is not a great on-ball defender or shooter, has average speed and athleticism but his vision and passing abilities are excellent and I think he can succeed in an up-tempo system. I think the “gem” of the draft is the Brandon Roy-like James Harden and I think Blair can be in the top 5 in the league in Rebounds by his 2nd year.

  18. Mattissick you must be
    Mattissick you must be smoking something if you think that Holiday ever “out-shined” Collison at the point. Having watched all of UCLA’s games this season I can tell you Holiday played like a freshman who had no business starting at point guard. Collison was the starting point on 2 of UCLA’s 3 straight final four runs and was an All-American. Holiday is talented but let’s not get carried away.Comparisons to Russell Westbrook aren’t really valid. Westbrook earned being the #4 pick in the draft by his play in the tournament, the fact that he was the Pac 10 defensive player of the year, and his freakish athleticism. Holiday is a totally different player and he may end up being good down the road but UCLA’s system didn’t “hide” his talent.

  19. Dont drink the kool aid
    Calling a draft bad before it even occurs is ridiculous…furthermore, saying its bad before 3 or 4 years passes is ridiculous, too. No one knows how good guys like Jennings, Derozan, Griffin, etc. will be.

    If drafts were that easy to peg beforehand Kobe wouldnt have been the 13th pick, Sam Bowie wouldnt have went 2, Andrew Bogut wouldnt have went ahead of Chris Paul, etc, etc.

    It may sound boring and hard to admit, but bottom line is…we dont know.

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