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By
Aran Smith
3/19/08
NBADraft.net
Staff Picks
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NCAA
Champion |
Runner
up |
Final
Four |
Final
Four |
Sleeper |
| Aran Smith |
UCLA |
Kansas |
Tennessee |
Texas |
Baylor |
| Adi Joseph |
UCLA |
Kansas |
Tennessee |
Pittsburgh |
Pittsburgh |
| Kevin Duffy |
Kansas |
UCLA |
Texas |
Louisville |
Pittsburgh |
| Nick Prevenas |
UCLA |
UNC |
Kansas |
Stanford |
Davidson |
| Josh Redetzke |
Memphis |
Georgetown |
UCLA |
Tennessee |
Marquette |
| Borko Popic |
Kansas |
UCLA |
Texas |
Louisville |
Clemson |
| Stevan
Petrovic |
UNC |
UCLA |
Kansas |
Memphis |
Clemson |
| Drew Wolin |
UCLA |
Kansas |
UNC |
Memphis |
Kentucky |
| James
Burbridge |
Kansas |
UCLA |
UNC |
Texas |
Washington
St. |
| Channing
McCarthy |
Kansas |
UCLA |
Texas |
Louisville |
USC |
| Jon Nichols |
UCLA |
Kansas |
UNC |
Memphis |
Arizona |
| Derrick
Brownson |
UCLA |
Kansas |
UNC |
Texas |
Baylor |
Title
Contenders:
UCLA, Kansas, Tennessee, Texas, UNC, Memphis
Only a handful of teams have what it takes to win it all this year.
Star power
An interesting note is that every champion since 2000 has had at
least one player from their roster eventually picked in the top
5 of the NBA Draft except the 2002 Maryland Terrapins and every
champion since 1995 has had at least one player from its roster
eventually picked in the top 10 of the NBA Draft except the 1998
Kentucky Wildcats.
Of the six projected title contenders, only UCLA (Westbrook: 8th)
and Memphis (Rose: 2nd) currently have projected top 10 picks. The
other four all have first round candidates but no likely top 10
guys. *Texas PG Augustin has a shot to move into the top 10 if Texas
were to win it all but he appears more likely to be a 12-25 level
player.
UCLA
Pros: UCLA has it all. One of the top coaches in the business, a
quality backcourt (Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook and Josh Shipp),
a stud in the frontcourt (Kevin Love) they play ray gun defense
(Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Westbrook) and have a quality bench
(Mata-Real, Aboya, Keefe). I look for them to face Kansas in a rematch
of the West regional final from a year ago with repeat success.
Darren Collison might be the best free throw shooter in all of college
basketball and with a lead in tight games will be a huge weapon
at the FT line.
Cons: UCLA comes into the tourney with some injury concerns. Their
top front court defender Luc Richard Mbah a Moute said he felt like
his ankle exploded after re-injuring his ankle during their semifinal
in the Pac-Ten Conference Championship against USC. Although just
two days later felt as if he could go if he had to against Stanford
in the Pac-Ten Final. He should be back, but how close he'll be
to 100% by the important games is yet to be seen. Kevin Love also
was visibly bothered by back spasms in the Stanford game. Both player's
health will be crucial to UCLA's title hopes.
Kansas
Pros: Kansas appears to be a team hitting it's stride at just the
right time. Without question Kansas has what it takes to win it
all, and after UCLA, they have the best chance to do so. Their quality
backcourt, particularly defensively makes them very dangerous and
their deep frontcourt also gives them an advantage. This is Bill
Self's best shot yet to win it all, and Kansas will be extremely
difficult to keep out of San Antonio this year. Mario Chalmers has
really developed into a consistent performer on both ends of the
floor. 30 points in the Big 12 Conference Championship showed that
he's ready for primetime.
Cons:
Their balance is their strength but also their weakness. They lack
a true go-to guy. Someone that in a close game, they can turn to
and feel certain they can pull them through. Sherron Collins has
the potential to be that guy, but his injuries this year have slowed
his progression some. Brandon Rush is heating up from outside, but
doesn't appear to have the speed and mobility he had a season ago.
Tennessee
Pros: Tennessee has more depth than any team in the country. They
have the ability to keep all of their players fresh and play at
a high level of intensity throughout. Tyler Smith is a consummate
glue player giving the team exactly what it needs (soaring, rebounding,
passing, defense) every game. Chris Lofton gives them an elite go-to
scorer and with so many great shooters this team is capable of shooting
any team out of the tournament.
Cons: Losing in the SEC Tournament doesn't bode well for momentum,
although it's not always a bad thing to rest up and have less games
going into the Big Dance. Tennessee lacks an absolute stud in the
frontcourt but with Chism, Crews and Tyler Smith hitting the glass
they can usually hold their own.
Texas
Pros: Texas received a 2 seed, but it might as well have been a
1 as their potential Elite Eight match up with Memphis will be in
Houston where they're sure to have a home crowd atmosphere. Texas
has beaten more goliaths this year than anyone with wins against
UCLA, Kansas and Tennessee.
Cons: Texas' greatest strength is their advantage at the point guard
position, but facing Memphis Augustin's effectiveness could be neutralized
by the size and athleticism of Derrick Rose. While Coach Rick Barnes
has proven to be one of the best recruiters and regular season coaches
in the country, he has yet to ring the bell in the tournament, although
the same could be said for Bill Donovan before 2006.
Memphis
Pros: Memphis lost just one game all season and has the top point
guard in the country. They are able to run teams out of the building
with their amazing speed, athleticism and depth. Joey Dorsey inside
also makes for a difficult match up as few teams have a player with
such strength and athleticism crashing the glass.
Cons: Playing
in the Conference USA is no way to keep a team on it's toes. The
Tigers lack of quality competition and close wins could catch up
with them. Their inability to shoot free throws: last in Div 1 is
another big strike against their title hopes. Their road to the
Final Four will include games against Pittsburgh and Texas, both
capable of beating Memphis. To win it all this team will have to
step up and hit some free throws at crucial times.
North Carolina
Pros: The Tar Heels are the number one team in the country having
finished the season with just two losses. North Carolina doesn't
have to leave the state before reaching the Final Four. With the
likely NCAA player of the year in Tyler Hansbrough, and a blue chip
backcourt with depth, the Tar Heels have all the necessary ingredients
to win 6 games in the tournament.
Cons: Who have they beaten? The ACC Conference is way down from
the norm, and UNC hasn't had to face anyone this season. (The best
two teams they beat all year were Duke and Clemson, neither of which
is a true Final Four candidate) Memphis had a much tougher season
and proved themselves against far greater opponents (USC,Georgetown,
UConn, Arizona and Oklahoma). Despite being given the top overall
seed in the tourney, the Tar Heels were handed the toughest bracket
of all with the top 2 seed in Tennessee, possibly the top 3 seed
in Louisville (they'll have to beat one of the two) and a road littered
with land mines along the way. UNC could have their hands full with
Indiana and a difficult match up in the second round.
Final Four Contenders:
Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Stanford, Washington
State, USC, Xavier
Pittsburgh was one of the last undefeated teams
in the country and rated in the top 10 before losing Mike Cook (for
the season) and Levance Fields (for a big portion of the year) to
leg injuries. They'll likely need to beat both Memphis and Texas
to get there, but this team is certainly capable as they proved
in beating Georgetown to win the Big East Conference Tournament.
Few teams are able to match up with Pittsburgh's physical style
which has a new and improved centerpiece by the name of Dejaun Blair.
Georgetown
lacks the intrigue of last year's Final Four squad with no Jeff
Green safety net to bail them out of close ball games. Their depth
is one of their real strengths, although the tournament normally
equates to shortened benches. This team could give Kansas a run
for their money with their back cutting, precision Princeton Offense,
but they appear to be a notch below the contenders this season.
Louisville was a number of scouts and insiders
pick to reach the final four before the season began. They had a
nightmare start to the year with the injury to David Padgett and
a lack of overall effort. But they rallied in Conference play and
salvaged a 3 seed. They're still extremely dangerous with Coach
Pitino's pressing style but they appear to be a player or two away
from being a true contender this year.
Stanford's two headed monster is enough to make
a lot of teams top scorers want to bury their head in a towel at
the end of the bench. After getting by one Lopez, there's another
7-foot Patrick Swayze lookalike intent on sending their shot into
the 18th row. Lawrence Hill has had an off year but is capable of
heating up quickly. Stanford's success in the tournament rests squarely
on their backcourt holding their own. Mitch Johnson and Anthony
Goods are capable of playing well, but their lack of consistency
knocks them from the ranks of true title contenders.
Washington State may have struggled in the middle
of the Pac-Ten season (three straight home losses), but that can
be excused when you consider how strong the Conference is. Their
backcourt of Weaver, Low and Rochestie can match up with anyone
and their mistake free, defensive style can cause fits for teams,
especially when they're knocking down their shots. They're in the
toughest conference and have their work cut out for them, but this
team has the change up style to surprise some teams.
USC's combination of athletes and a coach Tim Floyd
that will make the right adjustments to give the Trojans a shot
at making a run to the Final Four. PG Daniel Hackett makes everyone
better and shooting guard OJ Mayo seems to have matured and is playing
his best basketball at the end of the the season. In the frontcourt
the long, athletic tandem of Taj Gibson and Devon Jefferson are
going to create fits for the slow interior players of Wisconsin
in the team's likely second round match up. Look For USC to reach
the Elite Eight and give Kansas all they can handle. That's four
Final Four candidates from the Pac Ten, and one huge omission (Arizona
State).
Xavier is the West region's best hope of keeping
the Bruins from reaching the final Four for it's third consecutive
season. Xavier employs tremendous defense and has blue collar mentality.
Their get opponents in dogfights and usually find a way to out-grit
them with key stops and big three point shots. Sport Illustrated
cover boy Drew Lavender is the catalyst, though just 5-foot-6 he
plays with tremendous heart. The Musketeers are a dangerous bunch
who certainly should not be taken lightly.
Sleepers
Baylor, Davidson, West Virginia
The Baylor Bears have been one of the nations top
teams flying under the radar all season. Coach Scott Drew is building
a powerhouse in Waco, which is pretty amazing considering the Dave
Bliss shenanigans are still a medium sized blip in the rear view
mirror. The Baylor backcourt quartet of Curtis Jerrels, Henry Dugat,
Tweety Carter, and LaceDarius Dunn can match up with anyone and
could create major problems for Xavier in the second round.
Davidson hung with UNC early in the season and
with shooter extraordinaire Stephen Curry, they are a threat to
beat anyone on any given night. The winner of their game with Gonzaga
will have a real chance to beat Georgetown in the second round.
West Virginia has one of the hottest players in
the country in Joe Alexander. He finished off the season scoring
29 or more points in 4 of his last 6 games. The team has adopted
Bob Huggins tough nosed style and has some solid skill players and
athletes. Their first round match up with Arizona should be tough
and the winner of this one will have a good chance to beat Duke
in the second round.
Over-Rated
Duke, Purdue
Duke was in and around the top 5 all season but
their reliance on the three ball and lack of interior strength will
make advancing to the Elite Eight difficult. Should they make it
that far, the speed and athleticism of UCLA's guards will likely
be too much for Wojo #2: Greg Paulus and company to handle. Duke
is certainly stronger than last year, and they have as many good
three point shooters as anyone which could give them a nice run,
but their lack of an interior presence will likely doom them sooner
than later.
Purdue was a surprise team all season as many predicted
them to be near the bottom of the league with so many young players.
Robbie Hummell and company had other ideas rolling through league
play catching a lot of teams off guard. Hummell is an excellent
freshman, and they have a number of hard nosed players but their
success was as much to do with the ineptitude of the Big Ten as
the strength of Purdue. Look for Baylor's guard to be too many and
too quick for the Boilermakers to handle.
Ah yes indeed it's fun time!
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